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BCF Toys is the home of college football data visualized by Brian Fremeau. In addition to producing the data, graphics, and analysis archived here, I write regularly for Football OutsidersESPN Insider, and other web and print publications.

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2014 Game Projections


FEI Game Projections represent the expected margin of victory at the conclusion of non-garbage possessions in the game, calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The Projected Win Expectation (PWE) of the identified game winner is also provided, a function of the current FEI rating of each team and an adjustment for home field advantage.
:: Game Projection Results By Week :: Game Projection Results By Game 

 

Thursday, September 25th

93.3% PWE :: GEORGIA SOUTHERN 49, Appalachian State 24
93.7% PWE :: OKLAHOMA STATE 48, Texas Tech 24
54.8% PWE :: UCLA 26, ARIZONA STATE 22 

Friday, September 26th

61.0% PWE :: Fresno State 30, NEW MEXICO 28
53.5% PWE :: Middle Tennessee 28, OLD DOMINION 27 

Saturday, September 27th

98.2% PWE :: AUBURN 52, Louisiana Tech 12
64.4% PWE :: Baylor 36, IOWA STATE 28
87.1% PWE :: Boise State 30, AIR FORCE 16
80.0% PWE :: BOSTON COLLEGE 29, Colorado State 19
81.5% PWE :: Bowling Green 31, MASSACHUSETTS 21
62.7% PWE :: BUFFALO 29, Miami (OH) 24
84.6% PWE :: CALIFORNIA 36, Colorado 24
88.4% PWE :: CLEMSON 39, North Carolina 17
91.1% PWE :: Florida State 30, NORTH CAROLINA STATE 9
97.1% PWE :: GEORGIA 36, Tennessee 12
68.4% PWE :: INDIANA 32, Maryland 24
95.8% PWE :: Iowa 30, PURDUE 7
98.0% PWE :: KANSAS STATE 37, UTEP 8
82.7% PWE :: KENTUCKY 26, Vanderbilt 15
84.8% PWE :: LOUISIANA MONROE 27, Troy 16
98.2% PWE :: LOUISVILLE 28, Wake Forest 3
98.5% PWE :: LSU 54, New Mexico State 13
50.7% PWE :: MIAMI 27, Duke 26
80.9% PWE :: MICHIGAN 20, Minnesota 13
98.5% PWE :: MICHIGAN STATE 42, Wyoming 6
95.6% PWE :: MISSISSIPPI 34, Memphis 16
78.1% PWE :: NAVY 36, Western Kentucky 28
97.6% PWE :: NEBRASKA 30, Illinois 12
82.2% PWE :: Nevada 34, SAN JOSE STATE 19
83.7% PWE :: Notre Dame 28, Syracuse 14
86.5% PWE :: OHIO STATE 26, Cincinnati 14
79.0% PWE :: PENN STATE 26, Northwestern 15
98.2% PWE :: PITTSBURGH 44, Akron 12
62.4% PWE :: Rice 35, SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 23
93.7% PWE :: RUTGERS 28, Tulane 11
84.4% PWE :: SAN DIEGO STATE 35, UNLV 25
58.3% PWE :: South Alabama 28, IDAHO 23
53.9% PWE :: SOUTH CAROLINA 30, Missouri 26
76.0% PWE :: Stanford 22, WASHINGTON 16
98.5% PWE :: TCU 36, SMU 3
57.1% PWE :: Temple 20, CONNECTICUT 17
82.3% PWE :: Texas 26, KANSAS 9
82.2% PWE :: Texas A&M 34, Arkansas 22
88.7% PWE :: TOLEDO 37, Central Michigan 22
69.7% PWE :: TULSA 31, Texas State 26
70.0% PWE :: UAB 22, Florida International 16
81.1% PWE :: USC 34, Oregon State 24
89.3% PWE :: UTAH 37, Washington State 24
83.0% PWE :: UTSA 33, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 12
98.2% PWE :: VIRGINIA 37, Kent State 8
98.0% PWE :: VIRGINIA TECH 37, Western Michigan 10
98.5% PWE :: WISCONSIN 31, South Florida 3

 

 

2014 Game Projection Results by Week

 

Week   PWE Rec PWE Pct SU Rec SU Pct   50-55 55-65 65-75 75-85 85-95 95+   ATS Rec ATS Pct
1   30-8 .802 26-12 .684   .000 .667 .625 .600 .778 1.000   17-20-1 .459
2   35-10 .774 37-8 .822   .500 .800 .800 .778 .875 1.000   23-17-5 .575
3   42-9 .820 39-12 .765   .000 .571 .500 .800 .917 .923   23-26-2 .469
4   36-10 .773 32-14 .696   .500 .200 .556 .800 .857 1.000   18-25-3 .419
Total   143-37 .792 134-46 .744   .333 .600 .600 .765 .861 .975   81-88-11 .479

 

 

2014 Game Projection Results by Game

 

Date Wk Team Line Opponent Final Proj Winner PWE Proj Score SU ATS
8/28 1 Louisiana Monroe -1.5 Wake Forest 17-10 Wake Forest 54.4 17-15 Lose Lose
8/28 1 Mississippi -9.5 Boise State 35-13 Boise State 50.1 21-19 Lose Lose
8/28 1 Rutgers 7.5 Washington State 41-38 Washington State 70.2 27-22 Lose Win
8/28 1 Temple 8.5 Vanderbilt 37-7 Vanderbilt 71.1 32-23 Lose Lose
8/28 1 Texas A&M 9.5 South Carolina 52-28 South Carolina 76.0 37-26 Lose Lose
8/28 1 Tulsa -4.5 Tulane 38-31 Tulsa 72.5 20-13 Win Win
8/29 1 Arizona -21 UNLV 58-13 Arizona 97.9 42-15 Win Win
8/29 1 BYU -15.5 Connecticut 35-10 BYU 75.8 27-14 Win Lose
8/29 1 Colorado State 2.5 Colorado 31-17 Colorado State 62.2 23-20 Win Win
8/29 1 UTSA 7.5 Houston 27-7 Houston 92.1 30-16 Lose Lose
8/29 1 Western Kentucky 7 Bowling Green 59-31 Bowling Green 64.9 27-22 Lose Win
8/30 1 Alabama -22 West Virginia 33-23 Alabama 95.5 37-12 Win Lose
8/30 1 Auburn -17 Arkansas 45-21 Auburn 96.3 40-17 Win Win
8/30 1 Boston College -17 Massachusetts 30-7 Boston College 88.7 28-11 Win Push
8/30 1 California 7.5 Northwestern 31-24 Northwestern 85.9 38-19 Lose Lose
8/30 1 Florida State -18 Oklahoma State 37-31 Florida State 75.8 26-17 Win Win
8/30 1 Georgia -10 Clemson 45-21 Georgia 71.3 24-18 Win Lose
8/30 1 LSU -3 Wisconsin 28-24 LSU 69.5 24-20 Win Win
8/30 1 Marshall -24 Miami (OH) 42-27 Marshall 91.1 33-13 Win Win
8/30 1 Michigan -28 Appalachian State 52-14 Michigan 98.5 42-8 Win Win
8/30 1 Mississippi State -31 Southern Mississippi 49-0 Mississippi State 98.2 33-7 Win Lose
8/30 1 Nebraska -20.5 Florida Atlantic 55-7 Nebraska 94.6 27-7 Win Lose
8/30 1 North Carolina State -20.5 Georgia Southern 24-23 North Carolina State 94.5 31-13 Win Win
8/30 1 Notre Dame -20.5 Rice 48-17 Notre Dame 97.5 40-13 Win Win
8/30 1 Ohio 3 Kent State 17-14 Kent State 76.1 23-14 Lose Lose
8/30 1 Ohio State -13.5 Navy 34-17 Ohio State 83.0 35-22 Win Lose
8/30 1 Oklahoma -34 Louisiana Tech 48-16 Oklahoma 98.5 41-4 Win Lose
8/30 1 Penn State 1.5 Central Florida 26-24 Central Florida 72.6 24-15 Lose Lose
8/30 1 Purdue -7.5 Western Michigan 43-34 Purdue 67.7 22-19 Win Lose
8/30 1 Texas -20.5 North Texas 38-7 Texas 95.0 33-10 Win Win
8/30 1 UAB 2.5 Troy 48-10 UAB 56.7 36-35 Win Win
8/30 1 UCLA -18 Virginia 28-20 UCLA 86.3 31-12 Win Lose
8/30 1 USC -18.5 Fresno State 52-13 USC 94.4 37-14 Win Win
8/30 1 UTEP 10 New Mexico 31-24 New Mexico 51.8 39-37 Lose Win
8/30 1 Washington -17 Hawaii 17-16 Washington 93.9 43-16 Win Lose
8/31 1 Baylor -31.5 SMU 45-0 Baylor 97.2 42-18 Win Lose
8/31 1 Tennessee -3.5 Utah State 38-7 Utah State 53.6 14-13 Lose Lose
9/1 1 Louisville -5.5 Miami 31-13 Louisville 74.6 34-24 Win Win
 
Date Wk Team Line Opponent Final Proj Winner PWE Proj Score SU ATS
9/4 2 Arizona -7.5 UTSA 26-23 Arizona 67.5 30-21 Win Lose
9/5 2 Nevada 3 Washington State 24-13 Washington State 55.6 34-32 Lose Win
9/5 2 Pittsburgh -5 Boston College 30-20 Pittsburgh 63.2 27-18 Win Win
9/6 2 Alabama -42 Florida Atlantic 41-0 Alabama 98.5 43-2 Win Win
9/6 2 Arizona State -24 New Mexico 58-23 Arizona State 98.5 59-20 Win Win
9/6 2 Army -3 Buffalo 47-39 Army 60.2 28-22 Win Win
9/6 2 Auburn -33 San Jose State 59-13 Auburn 98.3 49-16 Win Push
9/6 2 Boise State -7.5 Colorado State 37-24 Boise State 91.4 32-13 Win Win
9/6 2 BYU 1 Texas 41-7 BYU 50.4 22-22 Win Win
9/6 2 Central Michigan 3 Purdue 38-17 Central Michigan 56.3 26-21 Win Win
9/6 2 Colorado -17.5 Massachusetts 41-38 Colorado 74.6 26-14 Win Win
9/6 2 Duke -17.5 Troy 34-17 Duke 96.8 52-23 Win Lose
9/6 2 Florida -40.5 Eastern Michigan 65-0 Florida 98.5 36-8 Win Lose
9/6 2 Georgia Tech -7.5 Tulane 38-21 Georgia Tech 72.3 26-16 Win Win
9/6 2 Illinois -3.5 Western Kentucky 42-34 Western Kentucky 52.5 25-22 Lose Lose
9/6 2 Iowa -17.5 Ball State 17-13 Iowa 92.9 35-15 Win Lose
9/6 2 Kansas State -11.5 Iowa State 32-28 Kansas State 76.0 36-22 Win Lose
9/6 2 Kentucky -13 Ohio 20-3 Kentucky 82.9 28-15 Win Push
9/6 2 Louisiana Monroe -11 Idaho 38-31 Louisiana Monroe 61.4 22-18 Win Win
9/6 2 Louisiana Tech 16 Louisiana Lafayette 48-20 Louisiana Lafayette 90.0 31-16 Lose Win
9/6 2 Maryland -11 South Florida 24-17 Maryland 61.2 22-16 Win Win
9/6 2 Minnesota -13.5 Middle Tennessee 35-24 Minnesota 78.8 25-13 Win Win
9/6 2 Mississippi -17.5 Vanderbilt 41-3 Mississippi 81.6 28-15 Win Lose
9/6 2 Mississippi State -29 UAB 47-34 Mississippi State 98.1 42-11 Win Lose
9/6 2 Missouri -3.5 Toledo 49-24 Missouri 73.8 31-18 Win Win
9/6 2 Navy -3 Temple 31-24 Temple 53.7 35-29 Lose Lose
9/6 2 New Mexico State 3 Georgia State 34-31 Georgia State 78.6 31-23 Lose Lose
9/6 2 North Carolina -14.5 San Diego State 31-27 North Carolina 87.6 34-15 Win Lose
9/6 2 North Carolina State -15.5 Old Dominion 46-34 North Carolina State 81.7 28-15 Win Win
9/6 2 North Texas -2.5 SMU 43-6 North Texas 58.2 25-19 Win Win
9/6 2 Northern Illinois 7 Northwestern 23-15 Northwestern 62.5 31-27 Lose Win
9/6 2 Notre Dame -4 Michigan 31-0 Notre Dame 56.5 24-21 Win Lose
9/6 2 Oklahoma -24 Tulsa 52-7 Oklahoma 96.2 30-6 Win Push
9/6 2 Oregon -14 Michigan State 46-27 Oregon 78.8 29-18 Win Lose
9/6 2 Oregon State -10 Hawaii 38-30 Oregon State 88.0 40-18 Win Lose
9/6 2 Penn State -14.5 Akron 21-3 Penn State 97.8 33-8 Win Win
9/6 2 South Alabama -2 Kent State 23-13 South Alabama 50.5 26-21 Win Win
9/6 2 South Carolina -14 East Carolina 33-23 South Carolina 94.7 40-14 Win Lose
9/6 2 Tennessee -16 Arkansas State 34-19 Tennessee 78.7 22-13 Win Win
9/6 2 Texas Tech -21 UTEP 30-26 Texas Tech 93.7 57-28 Win Lose
9/6 2 UCLA -22 Memphis 42-35 UCLA 98.0 37-9 Win Lose
9/6 2 USC 3 Stanford 13-10 Stanford 67.0 19-16 Lose Push
9/6 2 Utah -13 Fresno State 59-27 Utah 86.9 33-20 Win Push
9/6 2 Virginia Tech 10 Ohio State 35-21 Ohio State 81.2 23-15 Lose Win
9/6 2 Wyoming 1 Air Force 17-13 Wyoming 60.0 33-28 Win Win
 
Date Wk Team Line Opponent Final Proj Winner PWE Proj Score SU ATS
9/11 3 BYU -17 Houston 33-25 BYU 84.1 28-18 Win Win
9/11 3 Louisiana Tech 3 North Texas 42-21 North Texas 68.4 23-18 Lose Lose
9/12 3 Baylor -33.5 Buffalo 63-21 Baylor 90.9 41-17 Win Lose
9/12 3 Cincinnati -9.5 Toledo 58-34 Cincinnati 66.2 29-22 Win Lose
9/13 3 Air Force -12 Georgia State 48-38 Air Force 62.6 32-23 Win Win
9/13 3 Alabama -47 Southern Mississippi 52-12 Alabama 98.5 43-3 Win Win
9/13 3 Arizona -20 Nevada 35-28 Arizona 82.4 41-25 Win Win
9/13 3 Arizona State -15.5 Colorado 38-24 Arizona State 98.0 44-15 Win Lose
9/13 3 Arkansas 0 Texas Tech 49-28 Texas Tech 75.9 39-29 Lose Lose
9/13 3 Boise State -14.5 Connecticut 38-21 Boise State 66.9 24-16 Win Lose
9/13 3 Boston College 17 USC 37-31 USC 95.2 37-10 Lose Lose
9/13 3 Bowling Green 8.5 Indiana 45-42 Indiana 52.8 34-29 Lose Win
9/13 3 Duke -10.5 Kansas 41-3 Duke 92.7 32-14 Win Win
9/13 3 East Carolina 9.5 Virginia Tech 28-21 Virginia Tech 90.7 31-11 Lose Lose
9/13 3 Florida -17.5 Kentucky 36-30 Florida 90.1 25-11 Win Win
9/13 3 Florida Atlantic 1 Tulsa 50-21 Tulsa 66.1 20-12 Lose Lose
9/13 3 Georgia Tech -15.5 Georgia Southern 42-38 Georgia Tech 98.3 38-12 Win Lose
9/13 3 Iowa State 13.5 Iowa 20-17 Iowa 83.1 34-18 Lose Lose
9/13 3 LSU -30.5 Louisiana Monroe 31-0 LSU 98.5 40-6 Win Win
9/13 3 Marshall -20.5 Ohio 44-14 Marshall 89.0 33-13 Win Lose
9/13 3 Miami -14.5 Arkansas State 41-20 Miami 93.5 37-16 Win Win
9/13 3 Michigan -31 Miami (OH) 34-10 Michigan 98.2 37-7 Win Win
9/13 3 Middle Tennessee -1 Western Kentucky 50-47 Western Kentucky 62.1 23-18 Lose Lose
9/13 3 Mississippi -26.5 Louisiana Lafayette 56-15 Mississippi 98.5 34-8 Win Lose
9/13 3 Mississippi State -14 South Alabama 35-3 Mississippi State 74.6 28-16 Win Lose
9/13 3 Missouri -10.5 Central Florida 38-10 Missouri 78.3 25-18 Win Lose
9/13 3 Navy -6 Texas State 35-21 Navy 86.5 40-20 Win Win
9/13 3 Nebraska -11 Fresno State 55-19 Nebraska 90.8 30-15 Win Win
9/13 3 North Carolina State -2.5 South Florida 49-17 South Florida 73.6 20-14 Lose Lose
9/13 3 Northern Illinois -10 UNLV 48-34 Northern Illinois 89.6 41-21 Win Win
9/13 3 Notre Dame -30 Purdue 30-14 Notre Dame 98.5 38-8 Win Push
9/13 3 Ohio State -31.5 Kent State 66-0 Ohio State 98.0 36-10 Win Lose
9/13 3 Oklahoma -21 Tennessee 34-10 Oklahoma 95.6 31-7 Win Win
9/13 3 Oklahoma State -12 UTSA 43-13 Oklahoma State 84.7 31-16 Win Win
9/13 3 Old Dominion -20.5 Eastern Michigan 17-3 Old Dominion 77.9 32-24 Win Win
9/13 3 Oregon -42 Wyoming 48-14 Oregon 98.5 58-11 Win Lose
9/13 3 Penn State -3.5 Rutgers 13-10 Penn State 58.1 21-17 Win Lose
9/13 3 Pittsburgh -24.5 Florida International 42-25 Pittsburgh 87.1 32-14 Win Win
9/13 3 South Carolina 6.5 Georgia 38-35 Georgia 58.1 29-22 Lose Lose
9/13 3 Stanford -28.5 Army 35-0 Stanford 98.5 38-9 Win Win
9/13 3 Syracuse -4.5 Central Michigan 40-3 Syracuse 56.9 28-23 Win Win
9/13 3 TCU -17 Minnesota 30-7 TCU 79.0 23-13 Win Lose
9/13 3 Texas A&M -31 Rice 38-10 Texas A&M 98.1 49-16 Win Lose
9/13 3 UCLA -8.5 Texas 20-17 UCLA 68.2 28-19 Win Lose
9/13 3 Utah State -15.5 Wake Forest 36-24 Utah State 75.3 16-9 Win Win
9/13 3 UTEP -10.5 New Mexico State 42-24 UTEP 88.3 38-27 Win Win
9/13 3 Vanderbilt -16.5 Massachusetts 34-31 Vanderbilt 82.3 31-13 Win Lose
9/13 3 Virginia 4 Louisville 23-21 Louisville 71.5 27-14 Lose Lose
9/13 3 Washington -13 Illinois 44-19 Washington 93.2 36-17 Win Win
9/13 3 West Virginia 3 Maryland 40-37 Maryland 60.9 25-22 Lose Push
9/13 3 Western Michigan 3 Idaho 45-33 Western Michigan 55.8 23-21 Win Win
 
Date Wk Team Line Opponent Final Proj Winner PWE Proj Score SU ATS
9/18 4 Auburn -7 Kansas State 20-14 Auburn 53.2 31-27 Win Win
9/19 4 South Florida -1.5 Connecticut 17-14 Connecticut 63.3 18-14 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Alabama -14 Florida 42-21 Alabama 84.8 23-9 Win Push
9/20 4 Arizona -8 California 49-45 Arizona 82.0 38-19 Win Lose
9/20 4 Arkansas -13.5 Northern Illinois 52-14 Northern Illinois 52.9 30-26 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Arkansas State -3 Utah State 21-14 Utah State 55.3 16-12 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Boise State -17.5 Louisiana Lafayette 34-9 Boise State 98.2 35-14 Win Win
9/20 4 BYU -14.5 Virginia 41-33 BYU 80.7 26-13 Win Win
9/20 4 Cincinnati -30 Miami (OH) 31-24 Cincinnati 97.7 35-9 Win Win
9/20 4 Colorado -8.5 Hawaii 21-12 Colorado 51.5 26-25 Win Lose
9/20 4 Duke -16.5 Tulane 47-13 Duke 92.9 33-15 Win Win
9/20 4 East Carolina 1 North Carolina 70-41 North Carolina 57.3 31-23 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Florida State -9.5 Clemson 23-17 Florida State 84.0 27-14 Win Lose
9/20 4 Georgia -41 Troy 66-0 Georgia 98.5 57-12 Win Win
9/20 4 Georgia Southern -1 South Alabama 28-6 South Alabama 71.4 31-20 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Georgia Tech 7.5 Virginia Tech 27-24 Virginia Tech 80.5 27-14 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Houston -21 UNLV 47-14 Houston 93.8 37-15 Win Win
9/20 4 Illinois -10.5 Texas State 42-35 Illinois 87.6 32-15 Win Lose
9/20 4 Indiana 14 Missouri 31-27 Missouri 92.6 39-23 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Iowa 6.5 Pittsburgh 24-20 Pittsburgh 61.1 24-19 Lose Win
9/20 4 Kansas -5.5 Central Michigan 24-10 Central Michigan 51.8 22-21 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Louisville -25.5 Florida International 34-3 Louisville 95.8 37-12 Win Lose
9/20 4 Marshall -10 Akron 48-17 Marshall 75.3 33-19 Win Win
9/20 4 Maryland 1.5 Syracuse 34-20 Syracuse 66.2 24-20 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Memphis -11.5 Middle Tennessee 36-17 Memphis 74.6 20-13 Win Lose
9/20 4 Michigan State -43.5 Eastern Michigan 73-14 Michigan State 98.5 49-7 Win Lose
9/20 4 Minnesota -8 San Jose State 24-7 Minnesota 79.2 30-20 Win Win
9/20 4 Mississippi State 7 LSU 34-29 LSU 80.4 24-15 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Nebraska -7.5 Miami 41-31 Nebraska 70.3 27-23 Win Lose
9/20 4 New Mexico -4 New Mexico State 38-35 New Mexico 66.4 37-33 Win Push
9/20 4 Ohio -10.5 Idaho 36-24 Ohio 57.2 20-17 Win Lose
9/20 4 Oklahoma -7.5 West Virginia 45-33 Oklahoma 77.7 29-14 Win Win
9/20 4 Old Dominion 6.5 Rice 45-42 Rice 74.5 28-21 Lose Lose
9/20 4 Oregon -23 Washington State 38-31 Oregon 92.1 46-18 Win Lose
9/20 4 Oregon State -10 San Diego State 28-7 Oregon State 90.5 34-15 Win Win
9/20 4 Penn State -27 Massachusetts 48-7 Penn State 98.0 33-6 Win Push
9/20 4 Rutgers 6 Navy 31-24 Navy 67.1 30-25 Lose Win
9/20 4 South Carolina -23 Vanderbilt 48-34 South Carolina 98.5 42-13 Win Lose
9/20 4 Southern Mississippi 3 Appalachian State 21-20 Southern Mississippi 76.7 25-18 Win Win
9/20 4 Texas A&M -33.5 SMU 58-6 Texas A&M 98.5 45-17 Win Lose
9/20 4 Toledo -14 Ball State 34-23 Toledo 67.4 29-24 Win Win
9/20 4 Utah 3 Michigan 26-10 Utah 53.7 25-22 Win Win
9/20 4 Wake Forest 2.5 Army 24-21 Wake Forest 66.4 24-19 Win Win
9/20 4 Washington -34.5 Georgia State 45-14 Washington 98.5 51-9 Win Lose
9/20 4 Wisconsin -25.5 Bowling Green 68-17 Wisconsin 90.5 33-15 Win Lose
9/20 4 Wyoming -3 Florida Atlantic 20-19 Florida Atlantic 50.8 24-22 Lose Win