About

BCF Toys is the home of college football data visualized by Brian Fremeau. In addition to producing the data, graphics, and analysis archived here, I write regularly for Football OutsidersESPN Insider, and other web and print publications.

Contact

:: Email :: Twitter

Strength of Schedule Ratings
:: 2014 :: 2013

 

Strength of Schedule (SOS) Ratings are a function of the FEI ratings of a given team's opponents and the location (home/away/neutral) of each game. These ratings are calculated from the top down, with more significance given to the toughest opponents faced. The overall SOS ratings below represent the likelihood than an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would go undefeated against the given team's entire schedule. Stronger schedules have smaller SOS ratings.

Additional schedule strength ratings are provided across each of the following dimensions, along with the national SOS ranking in each column. SOS E1 is the likelihood that an elite team would lose one game or fewer against the given team's schedule. SOS E2 is the likelihood that an elite team would lose two games or fewer. SOS G0 is the likelihood that a good team (one st. deviation better than average) would go undefeated against the given team's schedule. SOS G1 is the likelihood that a good team would lose one game or fewer. SOS G2 is the likelihood that a good team would lose two games or fewer. SOS G3 is the likelihood that a good team would lose three games or fewer. SOS G4 is the likelihood that a good team would lose four games or fewer.

Andrew Garcia Phillips of Chartball.com has developed an interactive visualization of 2014 college football strength of schedule based on FEI ratings and the SOS data provided here. The data and visualization tool will be updated weekly throughout the season.

 

 

2014 Strength of Schedule (updated through 11/29/14)

 

Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
1 Auburn 7-4 .025   1 .147   1 .444   1 .000   1 .000   1 .011   1 .062   1 .221
2 Arizona 10-2 .034   2 .194   3 .507   1 .000   4 .002   2 .018   4 .106   5 .311
3 Texas A&M 6-5 .037   4 .223   4 .507   1 .000   3 .001   6 .028   6 .120   6 .317
4 Arkansas 5-6 .046   3 .214   2 .505   1 .000   2 .001   3 .019   3 .100   3 .296
5 Colorado 2-10 .047   5 .245   5 .548   1 .000   6 .004   4 .024   5 .120   4 .308
6 Stanford 6-5 .057   10 .289   8 .605   1 .000   7 .004   8 .037   8 .137   11 .379
7 Tennessee 5-6 .057   7 .278   7 .596   1 .000   9 .005   14 .051   18 .208   19 .476
8 LSU 7-4 .058   6 .267   6 .576   17 .001   10 .005   12 .045   7 .132   8 .337
9 Florida 5-5 .060   8 .283   16 .672   20 .001   14 .007   21 .078   24 .272   31 .588
10 Virginia 4-7 .066   9 .287   11 .626   1 .000   11 .006   11 .044   14 .171   9 .363
11 Clemson 8-3 .071   16 .337   15 .669   19 .001   13 .007   18 .063   21 .249   27 .572
12 Utah 7-4 .075   14 .317   13 .636   1 .000   5 .002   7 .035   12 .168   12 .386
13 Mississippi State 9-2 .076   20 .364   24 .732   25 .001   23 .013   30 .105   38 .359   41 .691
14 Washington State 2-9 .077   12 .308   12 .627   1 .000   17 .008   9 .037   10 .154   10 .365
15 Alabama 10-1 .077   13 .314   10 .622   1 .000   16 .008   15 .051   9 .146   7 .327
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
16 UCLA 9-3 .077   11 .303   9 .605   18 .001   8 .004   5 .024   2 .086   2 .251
17 Miami 5-6 .078   15 .324   14 .653   1 .000   18 .009   10 .042   13 .170   15 .410
18 Washington 7-5 .090   25 .400   27 .750   28 .001   21 .012   23 .081   25 .276   25 .569
19 California 4-7 .091   24 .381   21 .702   24 .001   19 .010   19 .065   17 .200   17 .440
20 USC 8-4 .092   18 .356   18 .687   21 .001   12 .006   13 .048   16 .188   16 .422
21 Oklahoma State 4-6 .094   19 .363   20 .701   23 .001   36 .023   28 .096   32 .311   36 .635
22 Mississippi 8-3 .097   22 .372   19 .694   22 .001   22 .013   20 .077   20 .232   18 .471
23 Georgia Tech 9-2 .098   21 .368   22 .708   1 .000   20 .012   17 .053   11 .159   14 .402
24 Kentucky 4-7 .105   17 .350   17 .687   42 .003   29 .019   22 .080   22 .254   22 .530
25 Vanderbilt 2-9 .110   26 .423   30 .771   29 .001   28 .018   31 .105   34 .328   35 .632
26 Missouri 9-2 .111   29 .437   29 .766   1 .000   34 .022   32 .106   31 .308   30 .580
27 Oregon 10-1 .117   23 .380   23 .717   32 .002   15 .007   16 .053   15 .181   13 .389
28 Oregon State 4-7 .117   27 .423   32 .780   34 .002   31 .020   29 .103   28 .292   28 .574
29 North Carolina 5-6 .121   30 .443   25 .736   26 .001   27 .018   24 .084   19 .225   20 .476
30 Kansas 2-9 .123   31 .447   28 .763   33 .002   26 .017   37 .118   30 .307   33 .621
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
31 Georgia 8-3 .126   28 .425   26 .739   27 .001   25 .016   25 .085   23 .259   21 .511
32 Kansas State 8-2 .135   32 .471   39 .822   38 .002   42 .031   45 .179   47 .455   50 .769
33 Notre Dame 7-5 .135   33 .471   31 .778   43 .003   24 .015   26 .086   26 .278   24 .567
34 Arizona State 8-3 .140   34 .472   35 .797   36 .002   33 .021   36 .115   29 .301   26 .569
35 West Virginia 6-5 .140   35 .474   38 .813   1 .000   32 .020   34 .111   37 .353   38 .649
36 Virginia Tech 5-6 .141   37 .491   33 .790   44 .003   38 .025   27 .092   27 .279   23 .543
37 Wake Forest 2-9 .152   38 .495   36 .805   1 .000   35 .022   35 .114   35 .335   34 .627
38 Florida State 11-0 .156   39 .507   37 .807   37 .002   41 .029   38 .130   33 .313   29 .574
39 Wyoming 3-8 .156   52 .595   53 .895   55 .007   55 .081   60 .330   63 .671   62 .880
40 South Carolina 5-6 .159   36 .489   34 .796   35 .002   39 .027   40 .135   40 .371   40 .665
41 Southern Mississippi 2-9 .162   54 .612   66 .939   52 .005   66 .127   72 .524   78 .862   77 .968
42 Boston College 6-5 .164   42 .539   43 .833   40 .002   30 .019   33 .108   36 .339   32 .596
43 North Carolina State 6-5 .164   43 .540   40 .826   45 .003   44 .034   42 .158   43 .428   45 .727
44 Texas Tech 3-8 .166   44 .542   42 .828   39 .002   40 .028   39 .134   42 .393   42 .696
45 Illinois 5-6 .170   40 .520   44 .840   56 .008   45 .038   43 .158   46 .446   47 .748
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
46 Minnesota 7-4 .173   41 .533   45 .843   46 .003   43 .033   48 .192   48 .465   49 .759
47 Florida Atlantic 3-9 .176   58 .649   64 .931   62 .011   71 .184   77 .565   83 .880   81 .974
48 Michigan State 9-2 .178   55 .624   55 .906   58 .009   56 .082   59 .324   60 .640   61 .880
49 Rutgers 6-5 .183   50 .585   50 .874   31 .001   49 .050   46 .184   44 .437   44 .721
50 Fresno State 5-6 .192   47 .552   47 .847   54 .007   52 .072   53 .259   52 .527   54 .812
51 Texas 6-6 .194   48 .573   41 .827   30 .001   37 .024   44 .161   41 .373   39 .661
52 Syracuse 2-9 .195   45 .545   46 .846   49 .005   46 .040   41 .147   39 .366   37 .648
53 Pittsburgh 5-6 .196   49 .584   48 .861   47 .004   47 .044   49 .200   45 .442   43 .700
54 Louisville 8-3 .208   46 .550   49 .872   41 .002   51 .063   51 .243   50 .487   46 .746
55 Michigan 5-7 .211   51 .590   51 .882   53 .006   50 .062   50 .236   51 .512   52 .793
56 Duke 8-3 .216   56 .631   56 .911   50 .005   60 .089   61 .345   62 .670   65 .897
57 Iowa State 2-8 .224   53 .608   52 .892   48 .004   48 .046   47 .191   49 .468   48 .753
58 Indiana 3-8 .247   59 .656   60 .922   51 .005   59 .087   58 .317   59 .632   59 .874
59 Ohio State 11-1 .254   57 .646   54 .903   57 .008   58 .084   52 .258   54 .548   53 .803
60 Oklahoma 8-3 .255   60 .673   58 .913   60 .010   57 .082   57 .294   56 .607   56 .843
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
61 Nebraska 8-3 .272   61 .682   57 .912   64 .015   65 .122   64 .369   61 .658   60 .878
62 Memphis 8-3 .272   68 .736   74 .962   67 .020   72 .185   80 .586   84 .884   88 .985
63 Louisiana Tech 8-3 .281   65 .718   71 .950   73 .025   73 .185   76 .550   79 .864   82 .975
64 TCU 9-1 .287   67 .722   65 .937   66 .020   64 .119   63 .369   64 .692   64 .897
65 Maryland 6-5 .295   63 .711   63 .929   61 .010   54 .081   55 .276   55 .557   55 .827
66 Wisconsin 9-2 .304   64 .715   62 .926   70 .022   61 .096   56 .287   57 .616   58 .845
67 Baylor 9-1 .305   66 .721   61 .923   63 .012   62 .117   66 .388   67 .724   69 .930
68 Purdue 2-9 .309   62 .693   59 .921   59 .009   53 .075   54 .259   53 .543   51 .778
69 UAB 5-6 .314   73 .765   70 .949   72 .024   74 .189   78 .566   77 .849   84 .980
70 San Jose State 2-9 .320   71 .749   68 .943   68 .021   70 .147   69 .425   66 .717   67 .910
71 SMU 0-11 .320   69 .744   72 .951   69 .021   67 .140   67 .410   69 .742   68 .923
72 Northwestern 4-7 .336   72 .751   67 .941   71 .024   63 .117   62 .349   58 .622   57 .843
73 Tulane 2-8 .339   70 .746   73 .957   65 .017   68 .140   68 .419   68 .733   66 .904
74 Nevada 6-5 .350   75 .777   75 .962   79 .041   76 .210   71 .523   72 .799   72 .939
75 Georgia Southern 8-3 .358   86 .850   83 .977   84 .062   105 .488   112 .862   117 .984   116 1.000
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
76 Cincinnati 8-3 .362   77 .811   78 .970   76 .033   80 .246   83 .623   81 .876   80 .973
77 Louisiana Lafayette 7-4 .372   84 .845   98 .989   87 .067   101 .455   110 .856   114 .978   110 .998
78 Iowa 6-5 .373   74 .772   69 .946   74 .031   69 .144   65 .384   65 .702   63 .890
79 Troy 3-8 .377   87 .851   85 .978   85 .062   93 .404   96 .788   108 .966   116 1.000
80 Boise State 10-2 .390   76 .785   79 .971   75 .032   77 .231   74 .541   74 .834   74 .945
81 Kent State 2-9 .392   89 .863   87 .981   90 .079   100 .452   105 .815   105 .964   111 .999
82 UNLV 1-11 .395   82 .836   80 .971   77 .035   75 .205   73 .528   71 .787   71 .935
83 Utah State 8-4 .396   80 .818   82 .973   80 .042   81 .254   79 .577   75 .836   76 .959
84 Colorado State 9-2 .431   81 .833   81 .972   88 .069   85 .298   84 .632   85 .890   83 .977
85 Tulsa 2-10 .435   79 .812   76 .964   81 .050   78 .233   70 .522   70 .787   73 .944
86 New Mexico 4-8 .442   78 .811   77 .969   83 .061   83 .285   82 .601   82 .879   79 .972
87 Middle Tennessee 5-6 .450   85 .846   91 .984   93 .083   86 .347   86 .695   88 .914   92 .988
88 Eastern Michigan 1-10 .453   83 .844   84 .977   94 .087   87 .351   87 .700   93 .933   98 .991
89 South Florida 3-8 .454   90 .866   88 .981   82 .052   84 .296   85 .645   80 .872   78 .972
90 Navy 5-5 .469   93 .886   86 .980   89 .076   88 .357   89 .711   90 .919   86 .983
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
91 Northern Illinois 9-2 .489   88 .861   90 .983   91 .080   92 .403   98 .790   100 .954   100 .993
92 Georgia State 0-11 .492   97 .897   95 .987   99 .108   106 .491   108 .836   102 .962   103 .995
93 Central Florida 7-3 .495   94 .887   94 .986   92 .081   90 .382   91 .727   86 .909   87 .984
94 Penn State 6-6 .503   95 .888   96 .988   78 .036   79 .233   75 .547   73 .805   70 .933
95 Rice 7-5 .506   91 .873   92 .984   100 .114   96 .429   94 .762   98 .948   99 .993
96 East Carolina 7-3 .516   96 .896   89 .982   98 .102   91 .395   90 .726   91 .923   93 .988
97 Bowling Green 6-5 .524   105 .923   101 .991   95 .091   99 .452   101 .801   95 .936   91 .986
98 BYU 7-4 .529   92 .878   93 .984   86 .062   82 .284   81 .589   76 .839   75 .955
99 South Alabama 6-6 .537   98 .902   102 .992   97 .101   97 .444   100 .799   107 .964   107 .996
100 UTEP 7-5 .554   101 .917   107 .994   110 .153   114 .577   115 .884   113 .978   116 1.000
101 San Diego State 6-5 .560   100 .911   112 .995   101 .115   95 .428   95 .765   94 .933   94 .988
102 Louisiana Monroe 4-8 .568   102 .920   106 .994   103 .119   104 .465   103 .808   109 .966   108 .996
103 Army 3-6 .568   111 .937   105 .993   107 .136   109 .511   104 .808   103 .962   105 .995
104 UTSA 4-8 .570   104 .920   100 .991   102 .116   98 .450   99 .790   96 .939   96 .989
105 Arkansas State 6-5 .573   108 .931   108 .994   117 .210   117 .624   119 .905   119 .987   116 1.000
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
106 Western Kentucky 7-5 .593   99 .905   97 .988   109 .141   108 .510   107 .824   104 .962   102 .994
107 Connecticut 1-9 .595   106 .924   111 .995   105 .125   94 .423   93 .743   89 .917   89 .985
108 Akron 4-7 .598   107 .929   103 .992   112 .168   111 .536   109 .845   106 .964   104 .995
109 Hawaii 3-9 .609   103 .920   110 .995   96 .094   89 .379   88 .706   87 .912   85 .981
110 Houston 6-4 .625   112 .937   114 .995   116 .204   115 .577   111 .859   111 .977   116 1.000
111 Ohio 5-6 .626   114 .944   115 .996   114 .181   113 .569   113 .867   110 .967   101 .994
112 New Mexico State 1-10 .626   117 .956   116 .996   119 .256   122 .755   125 .965   122 .993   116 1.000
113 Florida International 3-7 .627   113 .937   99 .990   111 .163   112 .555   114 .871   116 .982   109 .998
114 Toledo 7-4 .636   110 .934   104 .992   104 .120   102 .455   102 .801   101 .960   106 .996
115 Western Michigan 7-4 .637   116 .951   119 .997   115 .185   116 .610   117 .889   115 .981   113 .999
116 Air Force 8-3 .658   109 .933   113 .995   106 .125   107 .491   97 .789   97 .943   95 .989
117 Massachusetts 3-9 .686   115 .946   118 .996   118 .244   118 .629   116 .884   112 .977   112 .999
118 Temple 4-6 .686   120 .962   109 .994   108 .140   103 .456   92 .742   92 .927   90 .985
119 Buffalo 3-6 .686   122 .969   123 .999   122 .310   127 .848   128 .984   127 .998   116 1.000
120 Old Dominion 5-6 .718   118 .960   117 .996   121 .288   120 .689   118 .901   118 .984   114 .999
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
121 Ball State 4-6 .733   119 .961   122 .999   120 .285   119 .686   121 .917   121 .989   116 1.000
122 Miami (OH) 2-9 .737   121 .968   120 .998   113 .173   110 .535   106 .816   99 .951   97 .990
123 Idaho 1-10 .818   126 .983   126 1.000   125 .380   123 .764   123 .950   124 .995   116 1.000
124 North Texas 3-8 .822   125 .982   121 .998   124 .379   124 .773   122 .948   123 .995   116 1.000
125 Central Michigan 6-5 .822   124 .981   125 .999   123 .318   121 .707   120 .911   120 .988   115 .999
126 Marshall 10-1 .829   123 .980   124 .999   126 .440   125 .815   124 .964   125 .997   116 1.000
127 Appalachian State 6-4 .834   127 .990   126 1.000   128 .459   128 .850   127 .981   126 .998   116 1.000
128 Texas State 6-5 .838   128 .992   126 1.000   127 .458   126 .846   126 .966   128 .999   116 1.000