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BCF Toys is the home of college football data visualized by Brian Fremeau. In addition to producing the data, graphics, and analysis archived here, I write regularly for Football OutsidersESPN Insider, and other web and print publications.

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Strength of Schedule Ratings
:: 2015 :: 2014

 

Strength of Schedule (SOS) Ratings are a function of the FEI ratings of a given team's opponents and the location (home/away/neutral) of each game. These ratings are calculated from the top down, with more significance given to the toughest opponents faced. The overall SOS ratings below represent the likelihood than an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would go undefeated against the given team's entire schedule. Stronger schedules have smaller SOS ratings.

Additional schedule strength ratings are provided across each of the following dimensions, along with the national SOS ranking in each column. SOS E1 is the likelihood that an elite team would lose one game or fewer against the given team's schedule. SOS E2 is the likelihood that an elite team would lose two games or fewer. SOS G0 is the likelihood that a good team (one st. deviation better than average) would go undefeated against the given team's schedule. SOS G1 is the likelihood that a good team would lose one game or fewer. SOS G2 is the likelihood that a good team would lose two games or fewer. SOS G3 is the likelihood that a good team would lose three games or fewer. SOS G4 is the likelihood that a good team would lose four games or fewer.

 

 

2014 Strength of Schedule

 

Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
1 Ohio State 14-1 .060   9 .305   11 .656   1 .000   10 .006   10 .043   10 .163   11 .414
2 Alabama 11-2 .074   2 .231   2 .509   21 .001   6 .003   2 .011   2 .058   2 .167
3 Oregon 12-2 .077   10 .311   9 .633   1 .000   8 .005   7 .028   6 .117   6 .281
4 Mississippi 8-4 .086   5 .272   5 .607   1 .000   3 .002   3 .015   3 .070   3 .243
5 Auburn 7-5 .094   1 .171   1 .458   1 .000   1 .000   1 .005   1 .037   1 .151
6 Mississippi State 9-3 .098   6 .281   7 .625   1 .000   7 .004   9 .043   13 .185   16 .469
7 Arkansas 6-6 .115   7 .289   6 .607   1 .000   5 .003   4 .017   4 .085   5 .278
8 Arizona 10-4 .116   3 .238   4 .568   1 .000   2 .002   5 .019   7 .123   7 .331
9 Florida State 12-1 .122   15 .410   16 .756   34 .002   27 .016   16 .068   15 .192   15 .461
10 Texas A&M 7-5 .129   4 .242   3 .566   22 .001   11 .006   6 .025   5 .102   4 .273
11 Michigan State 10-2 .140   21 .436   27 .800   37 .002   32 .022   38 .153   45 .454   49 .777
12 LSU 7-5 .144   11 .319   10 .642   1 .000   4 .002   8 .033   8 .147   8 .353
13 Tennessee 6-6 .154   8 .299   8 .632   1 .000   12 .007   11 .047   11 .178   14 .453
14 Florida 6-5 .163   12 .336   12 .693   33 .002   20 .012   15 .064   17 .244   25 .559
15 Missouri 10-3 .172   18 .424   15 .738   1 .000   13 .009   13 .049   14 .191   13 .426
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
16 UCLA 10-3 .181   29 .500   24 .786   1 .000   16 .012   14 .064   12 .182   10 .392
17 Georgia 9-3 .185   16 .417   14 .721   24 .001   9 .005   12 .048   9 .150   9 .378
18 Minnesota 7-5 .185   22 .445   20 .770   1 .000   25 .015   31 .104   32 .340   36 .672
19 West Virginia 6-6 .189   36 .537   38 .853   32 .001   35 .029   41 .168   42 .434   40 .710
20 Clemson 9-3 .205   13 .345   13 .694   23 .001   17 .012   18 .069   24 .264   24 .556
21 Georgia Tech 10-3 .207   19 .431   18 .760   1 .000   21 .014   19 .069   16 .199   12 .423
22 Texas 6-7 .211   31 .504   30 .804   28 .001   26 .016   27 .098   28 .296   27 .565
23 Virginia Tech 6-6 .217   30 .500   34 .841   1 .000   34 .027   36 .143   37 .384   38 .690
24 Utah 8-4 .220   27 .478   23 .782   36 .002   28 .017   23 .081   23 .263   19 .522
25 Wisconsin 10-3 .222   47 .582   48 .879   47 .004   53 .063   52 .239   51 .526   53 .797
26 Louisville 8-4 .223   41 .566   37 .852   40 .003   41 .036   35 .139   33 .350   32 .638
27 Kansas State 8-4 .229   20 .435   22 .779   1 .000   22 .014   32 .107   35 .361   35 .656
28 Colorado 2-10 .231   17 .417   19 .767   1 .000   24 .015   24 .083   20 .255   20 .527
29 Maryland 6-6 .242   51 .612   49 .880   43 .003   47 .047   49 .193   46 .454   44 .750
30 South Carolina 6-6 .246   33 .511   32 .812   30 .001   31 .021   30 .103   27 .293   28 .574
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
31 Stanford 7-5 .251   14 .406   17 .759   1 .000   15 .011   21 .076   18 .252   22 .550
32 Oklahoma 8-5 .253   40 .558   44 .863   42 .003   44 .041   44 .173   39 .416   41 .713
33 Washington State 2-9 .257   35 .522   33 .823   31 .001   30 .019   29 .102   26 .277   23 .553
34 Vanderbilt 2-9 .261   25 .463   29 .802   27 .001   18 .012   26 .098   29 .325   33 .638
35 California 4-7 .272   42 .570   45 .863   1 .000   33 .025   33 .131   38 .387   37 .680
36 Michigan 5-7 .280   37 .547   46 .869   45 .004   50 .052   50 .217   54 .539   54 .812
37 Kentucky 4-7 .281   28 .487   25 .787   25 .001   14 .010   17 .069   19 .255   21 .533
38 Miami 5-7 .283   24 .459   21 .775   35 .002   23 .014   20 .073   21 .256   17 .495
39 Rutgers 7-5 .285   34 .518   35 .849   38 .002   36 .030   40 .167   44 .441   43 .732
40 Oklahoma State 6-6 .285   23 .452   26 .794   26 .001   29 .019   25 .094   30 .326   30 .614
41 Oregon State 4-7 .289   48 .586   41 .855   50 .006   45 .042   42 .170   43 .441   48 .768
42 Illinois 5-7 .289   38 .555   39 .854   44 .004   43 .039   43 .172   47 .469   45 .753
43 Virginia 4-7 .291   26 .477   31 .806   29 .001   19 .012   22 .078   22 .259   26 .563
44 Washington 7-6 .292   46 .579   47 .869   46 .004   40 .035   47 .183   49 .476   46 .755
45 Penn State 7-6 .303   69 .766   70 .961   71 .019   70 .141   66 .412   65 .732   67 .909
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
46 Indiana 3-8 .305   49 .594   56 .911   61 .008   55 .074   61 .331   62 .664   63 .899
47 Southern Mississippi 2-9 .311   50 .596   59 .927   49 .005   64 .102   71 .432   76 .785   86 .968
48 TCU 11-1 .312   57 .653   62 .931   67 .013   60 .089   59 .317   58 .634   59 .864
49 Cincinnati 9-4 .314   60 .681   61 .930   59 .007   67 .121   67 .422   67 .738   65 .907
50 Texas Tech 3-8 .316   43 .571   36 .850   39 .002   46 .045   46 .181   48 .469   47 .757
51 Baylor 10-2 .320   63 .714   58 .927   55 .006   59 .083   60 .325   59 .636   60 .880
52 North Carolina State 7-5 .323   54 .642   51 .894   57 .007   51 .056   51 .226   50 .513   52 .792
53 Wyoming 3-8 .337   52 .617   54 .907   58 .007   56 .078   58 .304   60 .639   64 .901
54 Notre Dame 8-5 .337   44 .571   43 .861   41 .003   42 .038   37 .150   34 .359   34 .651
55 USC 9-4 .340   32 .506   28 .801   1 .000   37 .031   28 .100   25 .269   18 .515
56 Florida Atlantic 3-9 .355   55 .648   63 .933   56 .006   65 .117   68 .430   74 .771   75 .943
57 Arizona State 9-3 .358   53 .625   50 .884   51 .006   48 .048   45 .174   36 .377   31 .634
58 Kansas 2-9 .360   39 .555   42 .861   1 .000   38 .032   39 .157   40 .427   42 .732
59 Boston College 6-6 .361   56 .651   53 .900   52 .006   49 .049   48 .187   41 .433   39 .702
60 North Carolina 5-7 .365   45 .577   40 .854   48 .005   39 .035   34 .132   31 .327   29 .583
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
61 Duke 8-4 .369   58 .657   57 .918   54 .006   63 .098   63 .365   63 .679   61 .887
62 Iowa State 2-9 .373   62 .698   60 .930   64 .009   57 .081   57 .299   57 .605   58 .858
63 Navy 7-5 .382   72 .773   74 .965   75 .023   75 .188   78 .503   78 .790   74 .935
64 Nebraska 8-4 .413   64 .719   65 .944   60 .007   62 .092   62 .339   61 .649   57 .857
65 Pittsburgh 5-7 .421   71 .771   67 .949   68 .013   61 .092   56 .297   56 .586   55 .835
66 Kent State 2-9 .426   79 .835   85 .981   73 .021   94 .356   106 .773   113 .961   110 .993
67 SMU 1-11 .427   68 .746   76 .969   65 .011   69 .139   69 .430   69 .755   70 .926
68 Wake Forest 2-9 .453   61 .695   55 .910   53 .006   54 .065   54 .243   52 .530   50 .777
69 Boise State 12-2 .463   73 .791   69 .959   70 .019   71 .164   72 .437   66 .736   69 .915
70 Syracuse 2-9 .464   66 .733   64 .939   66 .012   58 .081   55 .247   53 .537   51 .783
71 Fresno State 5-8 .478   59 .669   52 .899   63 .009   52 .058   53 .242   55 .561   56 .837
72 UAB 5-6 .487   65 .719   66 .946   69 .015   68 .133   70 .431   73 .765   78 .950
73 Northern Illinois 10-3 .504   76 .810   75 .966   80 .036   81 .235   82 .556   81 .818   81 .957
74 Memphis 9-3 .518   70 .770   73 .964   72 .021   73 .180   80 .534   82 .819   83 .960
75 Louisiana Tech 9-4 .521   67 .745   68 .952   62 .008   66 .120   64 .390   71 .756   73 .934
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
76 Tulane 2-9 .522   81 .842   81 .974   77 .025   76 .189   73 .459   68 .748   66 .908
77 Colorado State 9-3 .533   75 .798   72 .963   82 .040   77 .200   77 .497   79 .799   79 .951
78 Purdue 2-9 .540   77 .815   71 .963   78 .030   72 .169   65 .395   64 .699   62 .887
79 Troy 3-8 .550   94 .890   101 .992   84 .046   98 .399   103 .760   105 .941   114 .995
80 Louisiana Lafayette 8-4 .552   78 .828   83 .978   74 .022   84 .251   86 .625   93 .904   92 .979
81 Iowa 6-6 .568   86 .868   82 .975   89 .053   79 .209   76 .490   70 .755   68 .910
82 Georgia Southern 8-3 .570   88 .873   109 .995   88 .052   101 .416   111 .804   117 .968   116 .996
83 San Jose State 2-9 .607   74 .794   78 .973   76 .025   74 .180   75 .486   75 .776   76 .943
84 BYU 7-5 .634   96 .895   89 .982   86 .049   85 .267   81 .546   77 .787   72 .931
85 Nevada 6-6 .635   89 .875   84 .979   87 .050   83 .244   85 .597   84 .840   82 .959
86 New Mexico 4-8 .640   87 .870   87 .981   94 .070   89 .303   89 .651   90 .896   91 .979
87 Middle Tennessee 5-6 .646   85 .864   91 .984   83 .044   82 .236   83 .567   85 .857   84 .961
88 South Alabama 6-7 .650   98 .908   102 .992   98 .079   95 .370   95 .721   95 .909   94 .981
89 Utah State 9-4 .652   80 .838   79 .973   81 .036   80 .215   79 .530   80 .811   77 .948
90 East Carolina 7-5 .652   90 .878   95 .987   96 .078   92 .338   91 .671   88 .886   87 .976
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
91 Air Force 9-3 .658   109 .937   105 .992   103 .108   102 .416   99 .737   97 .919   98 .984
92 Northwestern 4-7 .663   83 .859   86 .981   79 .035   78 .202   74 .481   72 .757   71 .926
93 Eastern Michigan 1-10 .665   84 .863   80 .974   85 .047   87 .282   87 .640   87 .873   89 .978
94 Rice 8-5 .665   82 .848   77 .972   95 .078   91 .310   90 .663   91 .900   95 .983
95 Western Kentucky 8-5 .670   92 .889   92 .984   90 .053   88 .298   92 .678   89 .895   88 .977
96 San Diego State 6-6 .673   99 .915   96 .988   104 .110   103 .416   104 .761   100 .930   96 .983
97 Florida International 3-7 .673   116 .950   110 .995   116 .146   113 .495   117 .835   116 .966   119 .997
98 Central Florida 8-4 .684   97 .907   94 .985   91 .066   97 .373   94 .715   94 .904   104 .989
99 UTEP 7-6 .690   91 .881   88 .982   93 .068   93 .355   97 .729   103 .940   113 .995
100 Georgia State 0-11 .703   101 .924   99 .990   101 .100   100 .407   98 .730   98 .920   99 .984
101 Old Dominion 5-6 .703   108 .936   104 .992   114 .144   114 .499   113 .815   111 .959   107 .992
102 Western Michigan 7-5 .706   110 .937   106 .992   107 .120   109 .450   105 .770   108 .950   100 .988
103 Buffalo 3-6 .713   124 .981   124 1.000   124 .307   128 .829   128 .982   128 1.000   126 1.000
104 Tulsa 2-10 .718   93 .889   90 .983   97 .079   90 .305   88 .640   86 .870   85 .961
105 Akron 4-7 .719   113 .941   112 .995   111 .139   117 .529   116 .826   115 .964   125 .999
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
106 Toledo 8-4 .722   106 .932   108 .995   108 .120   107 .438   108 .780   101 .937   108 .992
107 Arkansas State 6-6 .722   111 .939   111 .995   109 .120   108 .449   107 .774   106 .943   106 .990
108 Connecticut 1-10 .725   105 .931   98 .989   110 .124   105 .435   100 .743   107 .950   102 .989
109 Army 3-7 .725   104 .929   100 .990   106 .120   104 .419   102 .753   104 .941   101 .988
110 UNLV 1-11 .729   95 .893   93 .985   92 .067   86 .273   84 .596   83 .834   80 .955
111 Houston 7-5 .731   114 .941   107 .993   115 .144   111 .474   115 .820   110 .957   111 .994
112 Miami (OH) 2-9 .736   117 .951   118 .997   113 .143   116 .503   110 .797   109 .957   103 .989
113 UTSA 4-8 .738   100 .920   113 .996   112 .139   110 .465   109 .795   102 .939   105 .990
114 Ohio 5-6 .739   103 .928   116 .997   102 .104   112 .485   112 .811   118 .973   120 .997
115 South Florida 3-8 .746   107 .934   97 .989   99 .081   96 .371   93 .696   92 .904   90 .979
116 Bowling Green 7-6 .752   102 .927   103 .992   100 .098   99 .401   101 .746   99 .920   93 .980
117 Temple 5-6 .771   115 .942   114 .996   105 .115   106 .438   96 .728   96 .912   97 .984
118 Central Michigan 6-6 .784   120 .964   115 .996   120 .243   118 .587   119 .866   119 .973   109 .993
119 Louisiana Monroe 4-8 .791   112 .940   117 .997   117 .152   115 .499   114 .816   112 .959   112 .994
120 Marshall 12-1 .792   125 .982   124 1.000   122 .271   122 .682   122 .902   123 .981   118 .997
 
Rk Team W-L SOS   Rk E1   Rk E2   Rk G0   Rk G1   Rk G2   Rk G3   Rk G4
121 Massachusetts 3-9 .801   118 .951   119 .997   118 .210   120 .630   120 .889   120 .977   124 .999
122 New Mexico State 1-10 .811   119 .963   121 .999   121 .247   123 .691   124 .932   125 .993   122 .998
123 Hawaii 3-9 .822   121 .975   124 1.000   119 .223   119 .589   118 .863   114 .964   115 .996
124 Texas State 6-5 .850   128 .991   124 1.000   128 .401   127 .803   126 .953   124 .990   121 .998
125 North Texas 3-8 .852   127 .987   124 1.000   126 .371   125 .774   125 .945   127 .997   126 1.000
126 Idaho 1-10 .861   126 .985   120 .999   125 .327   124 .710   123 .919   122 .979   117 .997
127 Ball State 4-6 .870   123 .979   123 .999   123 .300   121 .666   121 .899   121 .979   123 .999
128 Appalachian State 6-4 .894   122 .975   122 .999   127 .372   126 .790   127 .956   126 .994   126 1.000