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2016 Game Projections


FEI Game Projections are calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The table identifies the Win Likelihood (WL) of the projected game winner and the likelihood of various game results for the projected winner: DW (dominant win by 25+ points), SW (strong win by 17-24 points), MW (moderate win by 9-16 points), NW (narrow win by 1-8 points), NL (narrow loss by 1-8 points), ML (moderate loss by 9-16 points), SL (strong loss by 17-24 points), and DL (dominant loss by 25+ points).

 

Bowl Game Projections

 

Date WL Projected Winner Score Projected Loser   DW SW MW NW NL ML SL DL
12/17 .645 Central Florida 24-18 Arkansas State   .099 .160 .201 .185 .223 .069 .043 .021
12/17 .781 Houston 33-21 San Diego State   .197 .230 .209 .145 .150 .038 .022 .010
12/17 .674 Southern Mississippi 28-21 Louisiana Lafayette   .114 .177 .205 .178 .207 .062 .038 .018
12/17 .623 Toledo 29-25 Appalachian State   .089 .147 .198 .189 .234 .074 .046 .022
12/17 .653 UTSA 34-28 New Mexico   .103 .165 .202 .183 .218 .067 .041 .020
12/19 .889 Tulsa 37-17 Central Michigan   .349 .259 .192 .089 .085 .015 .008 .003
12/20 .559 Western Kentucky 33-31 Memphis   .067 .104 .187 .201 .266 .090 .057 .028
12/21 .672 BYU 30-24 Wyoming   .113 .176 .205 .178 .208 .063 .038 .018
12/22 .938 Colorado State 43-18 Idaho   .467 .254 .169 .048 .052 .006 .003 .000
12/23 .585 Navy 40-37 Louisiana Tech   .075 .122 .192 .197 .253 .083 .053 .026
12/23 .589 Old Dominion 31-27 Eastern Michigan   .076 .125 .192 .196 .251 .082 .052 .026
12/23 .704 Troy 27-19 Ohio   .133 .193 .207 .170 .192 .055 .033 .016
12/24 .777 Middle Tennessee 38-26 Hawaii   .193 .228 .210 .147 .152 .039 .022 .010
12/26 .545 Boston College 23-21 Maryland   .063 .095 .184 .203 .273 .093 .059 .030
12/26 .568 Mississippi State 27-25 Miami (OH)   .069 .110 .188 .200 .262 .088 .055 .027
12/26 .543 North Carolina State 24-23 Vanderbilt   .063 .093 .183 .204 .274 .094 .060 .030
12/27 .796 Army 32-19 North Texas   .213 .236 .209 .139 .141 .034 .020 .009
12/27 .907 Boise State 39-17 Baylor   .385 .259 .186 .077 .074 .012 .006 .002
12/27 .866 Temple 31-13 Wake Forest   .307 .256 .199 .104 .100 .020 .011 .004
12/27 .710 Washington State 31-22 Minnesota   .137 .196 .208 .169 .189 .054 .033 .015
12/28 .657 Miami 28-22 West Virginia   .105 .167 .203 .182 .217 .066 .041 .020
12/28 .640 Pittsburgh 32-27 Northwestern   .097 .157 .201 .186 .225 .070 .043 .021
12/28 .595 Texas A&M 28-24 Kansas State   .078 .129 .193 .195 .248 .081 .051 .025
12/28 .791 Utah 29-17 Indiana   .207 .234 .209 .141 .144 .036 .021 .009
12/29 .696 Colorado 30-22 Oklahoma State   .128 .189 .207 .172 .196 .057 .035 .016
12/29 .913 South Florida 37-15 South Carolina   .399 .259 .183 .072 .070 .011 .005 .001
12/29 .783 Virginia Tech 34-22 Arkansas   .199 .230 .209 .144 .149 .037 .022 .009
12/30 .862 Air Force 37-19 South Alabama   .301 .255 .200 .107 .102 .021 .011 .004
12/30 .510 Georgia 24-23 TCU   .056 .068 .176 .209 .290 .102 .065 .033
12/30 .773 Michigan 31-20 Florida State   .189 .227 .210 .148 .154 .039 .023 .010
12/30 .545 North Carolina 26-25 Stanford   .063 .094 .184 .204 .273 .093 .059 .030
12/30 .741 Tennessee 31-21 Nebraska   .160 .212 .209 .159 .172 .047 .028 .013
12/31 .734 Alabama 30-21 Washington   .155 .209 .209 .161 .176 .048 .029 .013
12/31 .776 Georgia Tech 35-23 Kentucky   .192 .228 .210 .147 .153 .039 .023 .010
12/31 .568 LSU 26-24 Louisville   .069 .111 .189 .200 .261 .087 .055 .027
12/31 .629 Ohio State 28-24 Clemson   .092 .150 .199 .188 .231 .073 .045 .022
1/2 .534 Auburn 30-29 Oklahoma   .061 .086 .182 .205 .278 .096 .061 .031
1/2 .594 Iowa 21-18 Florida   .078 .128 .193 .195 .249 .081 .051 .025
1/2 .571 Penn State 28-25 USC   .070 .113 .189 .199 .260 .087 .055 .027
1/2 .537 Wisconsin 26-25 Western Michigan   .061 .089 .182 .205 .277 .095 .061 .030
1/9 .679 Alabama 27-20 Clemson   .117 .180 .205 .177 .205 .061 .037 .018

 

 

2016 Game Projection Results by Week


FEI game projection results are provided below, including expected results as a function of individual game win likelihoods (Proj Pct), actual results of projected game winners (SU), average absolute value of the difference between projected margin and the non-garbage margin (NE), average absolute value of the difference between projected margin and the final margin (FE), projected game winner results by win likelihood range, and projected results against the spread (ATS).

 

Week   Proj Pct   SU Rec SU Pct   NE FE   50-55 55-65 65-75 75-85 85-95 95+   ATS Rec ATS Pct
1   .789   32-9 .780   13.7 14.3   1.000 .667 .750 .818 .667 .857   19-20-1 .487
2   .821   40-6 .870   10.7 11.0   .000 1.000 .900 .750 1.000 1.000   27-17-0 .614
3   .777   41-14 .745   13.4 14.5   .250 .692 .250 1.000 .900 1.000   27-25-3 .519
4   .772   34-18 .654   14.3 14.5   .250 .500 .615 .833 .600 .857   29-22-1 .569
5   .777   41-18 .695   14.4 15.1   .571 .500 .625 .625 .733 1.000   25-30-2 .455
6   .745   33-21 .611   13.0 13.9   .600 .538 .500 .556 .667 1.000   28-26-0 .519
7   .788   43-10 .811   13.6 14.2   1.000 .917 .667 .692 .727 .909   21-28-0 .429
8   .792   39-15 .722   14.8 15.9   .000 .600 .889 .750 .778 .750   26-27-0 .491
9   .781   35-17 .673   15.3 15.3   .600 .600 .556 .714 .583 1.000   19-33-0 .365
10   .828   45-14 .763   14.3 16.6   .000 .857 .556 .583 .938 .857   30-29-0 .508
11   .812   40-18 .690   12.9 13.3   1.000 .375 .667 .727 .706 .818   31-22-3 .585
12   .792   39-19 .672   16.2 16.4   .500 .444 .500 .692 .750 .929   29-26-0 .527
13   .802   37-24 .606   14.8 16.0   .000 .286 .500 .571 .818 .909   26-30-2 .464
14   .758   10-6 .625   13.6 15.8   - .250 .500 .667 1.000 -   4-9-0 .308
Total   .790   509-209 .709   14.0 14.8   .500 .593 .597 .709 .770 .911   341-344-12 .498