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Elite Win Margin Ratings
:: 2018 :: 2017

 

Elite Win Margin ratings are based on FEI ratings, but instead of measuring efficiency against schedule, Elite Win Margin measures achievement against schedule, a distinction closely aligned with the priorities of the College Football Playoff selection committee (at least as far as the Power 5 teams are concerned). Teams are ranked according to wins (EWM) greater than or less than an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would be expected to achieve against the given team's schedule to date (EL). The final College Football Playoff selection committee ranking (CFP) for each team is provided for reference.

The table also includes each team's current FEI rating (FEI), its current APA rating (APA), and the count of single-game efficiency performances the team has produced to date based on current GFEI ratings in each of the following categories: 90th percentile performances or better (G90), 80th percentile performances or better (G80), 70th percentile performances or better (G70), 60th percentile performances or better (G60), 50th percentile performances or better (G50), and performances in the bottom 50th percentile (Sub).

 

2017 Elite Win Margin Ratings (final ratings through conference championships)

 

Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
1 Georgia 11-1 .69   3   .278 1 2.61 1 1.69 5   7 10 11 11 12 0
2 Oklahoma 12-1 .48   2   .269 3 2.28 3 1.48 16   6 9 11 13 13 0
3 Central Florida 11-0 .45   12   .202 9 1.76 10 .45 107   2 8 9 9 9 2
4 Clemson 11-1 .40   1   .277 2 2.21 5 1.40 24   7 10 11 11 11 1
5 Alabama 10-1 .02   4   .218 6 2.09 6 1.02 57   5 9 11 11 11 0
6 Wisconsin 12-1 -.07   6   .211 7 1.92 7 .93 69   6 9 10 11 13 0
7 Ohio State 11-2 -.47   5   .242 5 2.31 2 1.53 13   9 10 10 11 12 1
8 USC 11-2 -.76   8   .145 15 1.11 15 1.24 35   3 5 8 10 10 3
9 Auburn 9-3 -.77   7   .257 4 2.23 4 2.23 1   6 8 10 10 12 0
10 Miami 9-2 -.82   10   .145 14 1.16 14 1.18 38   4 5 6 8 8 3
11 Penn State 10-2 -.89   9   .191 11 1.81 9 1.11 46   5 7 9 10 11 1
12 Memphis 9-2 -.94   20   .103 22 .97 20 1.06 53   1 6 7 9 9 2
13 TCU 9-3 -1.07   15   .138 17 1.07 17 1.93 2   3 6 7 10 12 0
14 Washington 9-2 -1.39   11   .198 10 1.85 8 .61 91   5 6 8 10 10 1
15 South Florida 8-2 -1.42   -   .058 36 .55 34 .58 93   0 1 3 4 6 4
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
16 Toledo 10-2 -1.44   -   .064 34 .54 35 .56 94   1 3 7 7 8 4
17 Notre Dame 9-3 -1.45   14   .207 8 1.70 11 1.55 12   6 9 10 11 11 1
18 San Diego State 9-2 -1.55   -   .051 39 .42 40 .45 108   0 4 5 5 8 3
19 Troy 9-2 -1.55   -   .046 45 .34 45 .45 109   0 2 3 4 7 4
20 Michigan State 9-3 -1.59   16   .056 37 .48 37 1.41 22   1 3 6 6 8 4
21 Oklahoma State 9-3 -1.88   19   .160 12 1.45 12 1.12 43   6 8 9 9 12 0
22 Virginia Tech 8-3 -1.89   22   .072 32 .61 32 1.11 47   1 3 4 8 9 2
23 LSU 8-3 -1.89   17   .085 30 .77 25 1.11 48   2 2 5 6 8 3
24 Northwestern 9-3 -1.96   21   .048 43 .44 38 1.04 56   0 4 6 8 8 4
25 Washington State 8-3 -2.00   18   .117 20 .92 22 1.00 59   5 6 7 7 8 3
26 Army 7-3 -2.28   -   .046 44 .50 36 .72 86   1 1 1 6 7 3
27 Mississippi State 7-4 -2.31   23   .102 23 1.03 18 1.69 6   3 5 6 7 8 3
28 Florida Atlantic 9-3 -2.39   -   .091 28 .76 26 .61 92   1 2 5 6 8 4
29 Boise State 10-3 -2.47   25   .093 27 .73 28 .53 97   0 4 5 8 10 3
30 North Carolina State 7-4 -2.52   24   .114 21 .87 23 1.48 15   3 5 7 7 8 3
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
31 Michigan 8-4 -2.54   -   .066 33 .65 30 1.46 18   1 4 5 7 7 5
32 Stanford 9-4 -2.57   13   .128 19 .97 21 1.43 20   4 7 7 10 11 2
33 South Carolina 7-4 -2.64   -   -.034 78 -.08 68 1.36 27   0 1 3 3 3 8
34 Fresno State 8-4 -2.76   -   .036 52 .36 43 1.24 34   1 2 3 3 6 6
35 Louisville 7-4 -2.85   -   .132 18 1.08 16 1.15 41   2 6 9 9 10 1
36 Appalachian State 7-4 -3.18   -   .001 64 .12 60 .82 77   0 1 1 2 3 8
37 North Texas 8-4 -3.22   -   -.037 79 -.32 80 .78 78   0 1 1 3 5 7
38 Wake Forest 6-5 -3.32   -   .100 25 .71 29 1.68 7   2 4 6 7 9 2
39 Florida International 7-4 -3.33   -   -.054 86 -.40 84 .67 89   0 2 3 4 4 7
40 Boston College 7-5 -3.41   -   .100 24 .77 24 1.59 9   4 5 6 8 8 4
41 Iowa 7-5 -3.48   -   .146 13 1.17 13 1.52 14   2 4 5 7 10 2
42 Northern Illinois 7-4 -3.51   -   .042 48 .29 51 .49 101   0 1 4 5 6 5
43 Houston 7-4 -3.52   -   .088 29 .61 31 .48 102   0 3 5 7 9 2
44 Georgia State 6-4 -3.52   -   -.138 114 -1.00 108 .48 103   0 0 1 1 1 9
45 Central Michigan 7-4 -3.53   -   .032 54 .15 59 .47 105   0 1 4 7 7 4
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
46 Ohio 7-4 -3.57   -   .051 40 .34 46 .43 110   1 2 4 5 8 3
47 West Virginia 6-5 -3.60   -   .029 56 .26 52 1.40 23   0 3 5 5 5 6
48 Iowa State 6-5 -3.67   -   .143 16 1.00 19 1.33 30   3 3 7 9 9 2
49 Navy 6-5 -3.78   -   .043 47 .34 47 1.22 36   1 1 3 5 6 5
50 Arkansas State 6-4 -3.80   -   .006 61 -.01 64 .20 127   0 0 0 3 6 4
51 Kansas State 6-5 -3.82   -   .036 51 .17 58 1.18 39   1 2 5 6 6 5
52 Southern Mississippi 7-4 -3.83   -   -.020 71 -.20 72 .17 128   0 0 2 3 4 7
53 UAB 7-4 -3.83   -   -.016 68 -.10 69 .17 129   0 1 3 4 5 6
54 Missouri 6-5 -3.84   -   -.038 80 .09 62 1.16 40   0 2 5 5 6 5
55 Kentucky 6-5 -3.93   -   -.065 90 -.49 89 1.07 51   0 1 1 2 5 6
56 Oregon 6-5 -3.96   -   .005 63 .19 56 1.04 55   1 3 5 6 6 5
57 Texas A&M 6-5 -3.99   -   .006 62 .10 61 1.01 58   0 1 2 4 5 6
58 SMU 6-5 -4.06   -   .024 58 .24 54 .94 65   0 1 2 4 6 5
59 Arizona State 7-5 -4.07   -   .084 31 .58 33 .93 68   2 2 4 6 9 3
60 Florida State 5-6 -4.20   -   .063 35 .44 39 1.80 3   1 4 7 8 8 3
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
61 Arizona 6-5 -4.25   -   .050 42 .35 44 .75 81   0 2 3 7 9 2
62 Georgia Tech 4-6 -4.36   -   .036 53 .40 41 1.64 8   1 4 6 7 7 3
63 Colorado State 6-5 -4.37   -   -.050 84 -.36 81 .63 90   0 1 1 2 3 8
64 Texas 6-6 -4.43   -   .052 38 .37 42 1.57 10   1 3 7 7 8 4
65 Wyoming 6-5 -4.48   -   -.034 77 -.27 78 .52 98   0 0 1 5 6 5
66 Marshall 7-5 -4.53   -   -.017 69 -.16 71 .47 106   0 1 1 2 4 8
67 Texas Tech 5-6 -4.54   -   .030 55 .22 55 1.46 19   1 3 4 5 7 4
68 Mississippi 5-6 -4.65   -   -.032 76 -.21 73 1.35 28   1 1 1 1 2 9
69 UCLA 6-6 -4.67   -   .029 57 .26 53 1.33 31   0 3 5 6 7 5
70 UTSA 5-5 -4.85   -   -.043 82 -.41 85 .15 130   0 0 2 2 2 8
71 Purdue 6-6 -4.88   -   .094 26 .74 27 1.12 44   3 4 5 6 7 5
72 Utah 5-6 -4.90   -   .046 46 .33 49 1.10 49   1 3 5 7 7 4
73 Temple 5-6 -5.01   -   -.010 67 -.04 67 .99 61   0 1 2 3 6 5
74 Akron 6-6 -5.06   -   -.084 101 -.63 98 .94 64   0 0 1 2 3 9
75 Virginia 5-6 -5.09   -   .006 60 .05 63 .91 71   1 1 3 5 6 5
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
76 Western Michigan 5-6 -5.25   -   -.045 83 -.40 83 .75 80   0 0 2 3 4 7
77 Utah State 5-6 -5.26   -   -.080 97 -.53 91 .74 82   0 0 0 1 4 7
78 UNLV 5-6 -5.28   -   -.073 95 -.59 96 .72 84   0 1 2 2 2 9
79 Duke 5-6 -5.29   -   .050 41 .33 50 .71 88   3 3 4 4 4 7
80 Buffalo 5-6 -5.65   -   -.004 66 -.15 70 .35 113   0 1 1 1 3 8
81 Indiana 4-7 -5.65   -   .042 49 .34 48 1.35 29   0 2 3 7 8 3
82 Middle Tennessee 6-6 -5.68   -   -.061 88 -.46 87 .32 118   0 0 2 3 4 8
83 New Mexico State 6-6 -5.68   -   -.040 81 -.40 82 .32 119   0 1 1 2 4 8
84 Louisiana Tech 5-6 -5.72   -   -.026 74 -.31 79 .28 120   0 1 1 1 2 9
85 Western Kentucky 5-6 -5.80   -   -.078 96 -.71 103 .20 126   0 0 1 2 2 9
86 Tulane 4-7 -5.87   -   -.001 65 -.02 65 1.13 42   1 2 3 3 5 6
87 Pittsburgh 4-7 -5.88   -   -.020 70 -.22 74 1.12 45   2 2 3 4 5 6
88 California 4-7 -5.95   -   -.021 73 -.22 75 1.05 54   1 1 2 3 5 6
89 Minnesota 5-7 -6.03   -   -.065 89 -.43 86 .97 62   0 1 2 6 7 5
90 Colorado 4-7 -6.06   -   -.027 75 -.27 77 .94 66   0 0 1 5 6 5
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
91 Vanderbilt 4-7 -6.14   -   -.090 104 -.57 94 .86 73   0 1 3 3 4 7
92 Florida 4-7 -6.16   -   -.067 91 -.47 88 .84 76   0 1 1 3 3 8
93 Maryland 3-8 -6.28   -   -.072 94 -.57 93 1.72 4   1 1 1 3 4 7
94 Miami (OH) 4-7 -6.29   -   .016 59 -.03 66 .71 87   1 1 3 3 5 6
95 Syracuse 3-8 -6.44   -   -.021 72 -.25 76 1.56 11   1 1 2 5 7 4
96 Eastern Michigan 5-7 -6.46   -   .039 50 .18 57 .54 96   0 0 2 4 8 4
97 Air Force 4-7 -6.50   -   -.060 87 -.55 92 .50 100   0 0 1 2 3 8
98 Nebraska 4-8 -6.60   -   -.090 105 -.58 95 1.40 25   1 2 2 3 6 6
99 Old Dominion 4-7 -6.65   -   -.144 116 -1.27 116 .35 114   0 0 1 2 2 9
100 Rutgers 3-8 -6.71   -   -.128 111 -1.01 109 1.29 32   0 0 1 2 3 8
101 Arkansas 3-8 -6.72   -   -.084 100 -.62 97 1.28 33   0 0 0 1 2 9
102 Louisiana Lafayette 4-7 -6.74   -   -.142 115 -1.18 115 .26 122   0 0 0 1 1 10
103 Tennessee 3-8 -6.91   -   -.114 107 -.90 106 1.09 50   0 0 0 2 3 8
104 Louisiana Monroe 4-8 -7.04   -   -.081 98 -.70 102 .96 63   0 1 1 2 3 9
105 East Carolina 3-8 -7.07   -   -.241 129 -1.89 127 .93 67   0 0 0 0 1 10
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
106 Nevada 3-8 -7.27   -   -.082 99 -.66 99 .73 83   0 0 0 1 3 8
107 Cincinnati 3-8 -7.28   -   -.119 108 -1.06 112 .72 85   0 1 2 2 2 9
108 South Alabama 3-8 -7.60   -   -.158 119 -1.40 118 .40 111   0 1 1 1 2 9
109 Massachusetts 3-8 -7.66   -   -.054 85 -.50 90 .34 116   0 0 0 2 4 7
110 Coastal Carolina 3-8 -7.75   -   -.089 103 -.82 105 .25 124   0 0 0 0 1 10
111 Idaho 3-8 -7.76   -   -.133 112 -1.17 113 .24 125   0 0 1 1 2 9
112 North Carolina 2-9 -8.01   -   -.071 93 -.68 101 .99 60   0 0 1 2 6 5
113 Georgia Southern 2-9 -8.11   -   -.122 109 -1.06 111 .89 72   0 1 1 1 2 9
114 Connecticut 2-9 -8.16   -   -.152 118 -1.36 117 .84 74   0 0 0 1 2 9
115 BYU 3-9 -8.23   -   -.124 110 -.98 107 .77 79   0 0 0 0 3 9
116 Bowling Green 2-9 -8.46   -   -.112 106 -1.04 110 .54 95   0 0 1 2 3 8
117 New Mexico 2-9 -8.52   -   -.172 121 -1.47 119 .48 104   0 0 0 0 1 10
118 Illinois 2-10 -8.59   -   -.177 123 -1.54 122 1.41 21   0 0 0 1 1 11
119 Baylor 1-10 -8.64   -   -.067 92 -.67 100 1.36 26   0 0 1 2 5 6
120 Hawaii 2-9 -8.75   -   -.185 125 -1.71 124 .25 123   0 0 0 1 1 10
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
121 Kent State 1-10 -8.82   -   -.159 120 -1.48 120 1.18 37   0 0 0 1 1 10
122 Tulsa 2-10 -9.16   -   -.086 102 -.77 104 .84 75   1 1 1 4 5 7
123 Kansas 0-11 -9.52   -   -.151 117 -1.50 121 1.48 17   0 0 0 1 2 9
124 Charlotte 1-10 -9.65   -   -.190 126 -1.74 126 .35 115   0 0 0 0 1 10
125 Ball State 1-10 -9.67   -   -.180 124 -1.64 123 .33 117   0 0 1 1 1 10
126 Texas State 1-10 -9.72   -   -.133 113 -1.18 114 .28 121   0 1 1 1 1 10
127 Oregon State 0-11 -9.93   -   -.176 122 -1.72 125 1.07 52   0 0 1 1 1 10
128 Rice 1-11 -10.50   -   -.221 128 -2.02 128 .50 99   0 0 0 0 0 12
129 San Jose State 1-11 -10.62   -   -.251 130 -2.41 130 .38 112   0 0 0 0 0 12
130 UTEP 0-12 -11.08   -   -.218 127 -2.04 129 .92 70   0 0 0 0 0 12