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2017 Game Projections


FEI Game Projections are calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team and an adjustment for home field advantage. The projections identify the Win Likelihood (PWL) of the projected game winner. Final score projections will be added after offensive and defensive FEI ratings are calculated, beginning with Week 8 game projections.

 

2017 Game Projection Results to Date


FEI game projection results are provided below, including expected results as a function of individual game win likelihoods (Proj Pct), actual results of projected game winners (SU Rec, SU Pct), and projected game winner results by win likelihood range.

Week   Proj Pct   SU Rec SU Pct   50-55 55-65 65-75 75-85 85-95 95+
Wk 1-3   .780   110-31 .780   .643 .526 .762 .714 .931 1.000

 

Week 4 Game Projections

 

Result Date PWL Projected Winner Projected Loser
  9/21 .772 South Florida Temple
  9/22 .507 Arizona Utah
  9/22 .868 Boise State Virginia
  9/23 .938 Alabama Vanderbilt
  9/23 .624 Appalachian State Wake Forest
  9/23 .747 Arkansas State SMU
  9/23 .828 Auburn Missouri
  9/23 .599 Central Florida Maryland
  9/23 .527 Central Michigan Miami (OH)
  9/23 .990 Clemson Boston College
  9/23 .625 Eastern Michigan Ohio
  9/23 .688 Florida Kentucky
  9/23 .581 Florida Atlantic Buffalo
  9/23 .938 Florida State North Carolina State
  9/23 .879 Georgia Mississippi State
  9/23 .714 Georgia State Charlotte
  9/23 .864 Georgia Tech Pittsburgh
  9/23 .779 Houston Texas Tech
  9/23 .818 Indiana Georgia Southern
  9/23 .625 Louisiana Monroe Louisiana Lafayette
  9/23 .986 Louisville Kent State
  9/23 .938 LSU Syracuse
  9/23 .726 Miami Toledo
  9/23 .945 Michigan Purdue
  9/23 .655 Middle Tennessee Bowling Green
  9/23 .719 Navy Cincinnati
  9/23 .874 Nebraska Rutgers
  9/23 .708 New Mexico State UTEP
  9/23 .584 North Carolina Duke
  9/23 .831 North Texas UAB
  9/23 .642 Notre Dame Michigan State
  9/23 .990 Ohio State UNLV
  9/23 .858 Oklahoma Baylor
  9/23 .726 Oregon Arizona State
  9/23 .800 Penn State Iowa
  9/23 .526 Rice Florida International
  9/23 .821 San Diego State Air Force
  9/23 .671 South Alabama Idaho
  9/23 .875 South Carolina Louisiana Tech
  9/23 .785 Stanford UCLA
  9/23 .535 TCU Oklahoma State
  9/23 .947 Tennessee Massachusetts
  9/23 .737 Texas A&M Arkansas
  9/23 .838 Troy Akron
  9/23 .721 Tulane Army
  9/23 .812 Tulsa New Mexico
  9/23 .939 USC California
  9/23 .615 Utah State San Jose State
  9/23 .865 UTSA Texas State
  9/23 .946 Virginia Tech Old Dominion
  9/23 .794 Washington Colorado
  9/23 .934 Washington State Nevada
  9/23 .799 West Virginia Kansas
  9/23 .764 Western Kentucky Ball State
  9/23 .759 Wyoming Hawaii
  9/24 .580 Connecticut East Carolina

 

 

Week 3 Game Projections

 

Result Date PWL Projected Winner Projected Loser
W 28-14 9/14 .951 Boise State New Mexico
W 63-16 9/15 .882 Arizona UTEP
W 47-23 9/15 .877 South Florida Illinois
W 29-21 9/15 .822 Temple Massachusetts
W 41-23 9/16 .990 Alabama Colorado State
W 20-13 9/16 .883 Appalachian State Texas State
L 20-34 9/16 .582 Baylor Duke
W 21-17 9/16 .507 Cincinnati Miami (OH)
W 47-21 9/16 .700 Clemson Louisville
L 23-30 9/16 .688 Coastal Carolina UAB
W 26-20 9/16 .695 Florida Tennessee
W 38-3 9/16 .966 Houston Rice
W 31-14 9/16 .912 Iowa North Texas
W 41-14 9/16 .766 Iowa State Akron
L 7-14 9/16 .632 Kansas State Vanderbilt
L 7-37 9/16 .770 LSU Mississippi State
W 21-0 9/16 .742 Marshall Kent State
W 48-45 9/16 .584 Memphis UCLA
W 29-13 9/16 .981 Michigan Air Force
W 34-3 9/16 .840 Minnesota Middle Tennessee
L 16-27 9/16 .706 Mississippi California
L 3-35 9/16 .872 Missouri Purdue
L 17-21 9/16 .790 Nebraska Northern Illinois
W 53-23 9/16 .746 North Carolina Old Dominion
W 49-7 9/16 .872 Northwestern Bowling Green
W 49-20 9/16 .884 Notre Dame Boston College
W 42-30 9/16 .741 Ohio Kansas
W 38-7 9/16 .990 Ohio State Army
W 56-14 9/16 .990 Oklahoma Tulane
W 59-21 9/16 .725 Oklahoma State Pittsburgh
W 49-13 9/16 .859 Oregon Wyoming
W 56-0 9/16 .990 Penn State Georgia State
L 13-23 9/16 .772 South Carolina Kentucky
W 28-17 9/16 .523 Southern Mississippi Louisiana Monroe
L 17-20 9/16 .780 Stanford San Diego State
W 41-17 9/16 .754 Syracuse Central Michigan
W 56-36 9/16 .960 TCU SMU
W 45-21 9/16 .964 Texas A&M Louisiana Lafayette
W 52-45 9/16 .527 Texas Tech Arizona State
W 54-51 9/16 .780 Toledo Tulsa
W 27-24 9/16 .825 Troy New Mexico State
W 27-24 9/16 .844 USC Texas
W 54-16 9/16 .948 Utah San Jose State
W 38-18 9/16 .861 Virginia Connecticut
W 64-17 9/16 .876 Virginia Tech East Carolina
W 46-10 9/16 .736 Wake Forest Utah State
W 48-16 9/16 .990 Washington Fresno State
W 52-23 9/16 .823 Washington State Oregon State
L 22-23 9/16 .806 Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech
W 37-28 9/16 .954 Western Michigan Idaho
W 40-6 9/16 .731 Wisconsin BYU

 

 

Week 2 Game Projections

 

Result Date PWL Projected Winner Projected Loser
L 21-44 9/8 .504 Ohio Purdue
W 44-7 9/8 .929 Oklahoma State South Alabama
W 41-10 9/9 .990 Alabama Fresno State
L 20-30 9/9 .594 Arizona State San Diego State
W 21-17 9/9 .807 Army Buffalo
W 51-31 9/9 .960 Ball State UAB
L 10-17 9/9 .845 Baylor UTSA
L 13-19 9/9 .607 BYU Utah
W 45-27 9/9 .529 Central Michigan Kansas
W 14-6 9/9 .763 Clemson Auburn
W 37-3 9/9 .941 Colorado Texas State
W 20-19 9/9 .611 Georgia Notre Dame
W 19-16 9/9 .579 Houston Arizona
W 34-17 9/9 .514 Indiana Virginia
L 41-44 9/9 .502 Iowa State Iowa
W 55-7 9/9 .990 Kansas State Charlotte
W 47-35 9/9 .662 Louisville North Carolina
L 7-17 9/9 .567 Massachusetts Old Dominion
W 36-14 9/9 .932 Michigan Cincinnati
W 28-14 9/9 .697 Michigan State Western Michigan
W 48-14 9/9 .513 Minnesota Oregon State
W 57-21 9/9 .699 Mississippi State Louisiana Tech
W 23-21 9/9 .755 Navy Tulane
L 28-30 9/9 .752 New Mexico New Mexico State
W 37-20 9/9 .905 North Carolina State Marshall
L 17-41 9/9 .603 Northwestern Duke
L 16-31 9/9 .769 Ohio State Oklahoma
W 42-35 9/9 .828 Oregon Nebraska
W 33-14 9/9 .878 Penn State Pittsburgh
W 31-14 9/9 .542 Rice UTEP
L 13-16 9/9 .609 Rutgers Eastern Michigan
W 54-32 9/9 .789 SMU North Texas
W 31-13 9/9 .551 South Carolina Missouri
L 23-30 9/9 .742 Syracuse Middle Tennessee
W 28-7 9/9 .674 TCU Arkansas
W 56-0 9/9 .968 Texas San Jose State
W 37-24 9/9 .770 Toledo Nevada
W 66-42 9/9 .808 Tulsa Louisiana Lafayette
W 56-23 9/9 .966 UCLA Hawaii
W 44-16 9/9 .560 UNLV Idaho
W 42-24 9/9 .635 USC Stanford
W 34-10 9/9 .566 Wake Forest Boston College
W 47-44 9/9 .580 Washington State Boise State
W 56-20 9/9 .808 West Virginia East Carolina
L 7-20 9/9 .795 Western Kentucky Illinois
W 31-14 9/9 .975 Wisconsin Florida Atlantic

 

 

Week 1 Game Projections

 

Result Date PWL Projected Winner Projected Loser
W 37-31 8/31 .700 Arizona State New Mexico State
W 61-17 8/31 .860 Central Florida Florida International
W 37-29 8/31 .957 Memphis Louisiana Monroe
W 17-7 8/31 .945 Minnesota Buffalo
W 49-21 8/31 .927 Ohio State Indiana
W 59-24 8/31 .891 Oklahoma State Tulsa
L 3-17 9/1 .612 Colorado State Colorado
W 24-7 9/1 .806 Eastern Michigan Charlotte
W 42-19 9/1 .607 Navy Florida Atlantic
L 20-23 9/1 .573 Northern Illinois Boston College
W 30-14 9/1 .939 Washington Rutgers
W 59-10 9/1 .932 Wisconsin Utah State
W 24-7 9/2 .757 Alabama Florida State
W 41-7 9/2 .973 Auburn Georgia Southern
L 21-24 9/2 .503 Ball State Illinois
W 24-13 9/2 .800 Boise State Troy
W 56-3 9/2 .990 Clemson Kent State
L 17-33 9/2 .541 Florida Michigan
W 31-10 9/2 .894 Georgia Appalachian State
W 24-3 9/2 .778 Iowa Wyoming
W 24-17 9/2 .689 Kentucky Southern Mississippi
W 35-28 9/2 .950 Louisville Purdue
W 27-0 9/2 .797 LSU BYU
W 31-26 9/2 .506 Marshall Miami (OH)
L 28-38 9/2 .736 Massachusetts Coastal Carolina
W 35-10 9/2 .835 Michigan State Bowling Green
W 47-27 9/2 .949 Mississippi South Alabama
W 43-36 9/2 .773 Nebraska Arkansas State
L 30-35 9/2 .795 North Carolina California
W 31-20 9/2 .935 Northwestern Nevada
W 49-16 9/2 .869 Notre Dame Temple
W 56-7 9/2 .990 Oklahoma UTEP
W 52-0 9/2 .990 Penn State Akron
W 35-28 9/2 .556 South Carolina North Carolina State
L 41-51 9/2 .914 Texas Maryland
W 49-31 9/2 .940 USC Western Michigan
W 28-6 9/2 .734 Vanderbilt Middle Tennessee
L 44-45 9/3 .545 Texas A&M UCLA
W 31-24 9/3 .767 Virginia Tech West Virginia
W 42-41 9/4 .517 Tennessee Georgia Tech

 

 

Week 0 Game Projections

 

Result Date PWL Projected Winner Projected Loser
W 58-27 8/26 .695 Colorado State Oregon State
L 35-38 8/26 .692 Massachusetts Hawaii
W 42-22 8/26 .829 South Florida San Jose State
W 62-7 8/26 .990 Stanford Rice