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Elite Win Margin Ratings
:: 2018 :: 2017

 

Elite Win Margin ratings are based on FEI ratings, but instead of measuring efficiency against schedule, Elite Win Margin measures achievement against schedule, a distinction closely aligned with the priorities of the College Football Playoff selection committee (at least as far as the Power 5 teams are concerned). Teams are ranked according to wins (EWM) greater than or less than an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would be expected to achieve against the given team's schedule to date (EL). The current College Football Playoff selection committee ranking (CFP) for each team is provided for reference.

The table also includes each team's current FEI rating (FEI), its current APA rating (APA), and the count of single-game efficiency performances the team has produced to date based on current GFEI ratings in each of the following categories: 90th percentile performances or better (G90), 80th percentile performances or better (G80), 70th percentile performances or better (G70), 60th percentile performances or better (G60), 50th percentile performances or better (G50), and performances in the bottom 50th percentile (Sub).

 

2018 Elite Win Margin Ratings (final ratings through conference championships)

 

Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
1 Alabama 12-0 1.46   1   .333 1 3.15 1 1.46 20   11 11 11 11 11 1
2 Notre Dame 12-0 .70   3   .213 5 1.75 6 .70 85   5 8 9 11 11 1
3 Clemson 12-0 .57   2   .241 3 2.16 3 .57 101   8 11 11 12 12 0
4 Central Florida 11-0 .31   8   .206 6 1.92 4 .31 120   2 5 7 10 10 1
5 Ohio State 12-1 .12   6   .201 8 1.64 9 1.12 41   5 8 9 11 12 1
6 Georgia 10-2 .00   5   .272 2 2.52 2 2.00 4   8 10 11 12 12 0
7 Oklahoma 12-1 -.01   4   .223 4 1.88 5 .99 55   6 9 10 12 13 0
8 Michigan 10-2 -.56   7   .195 9 1.68 8 1.44 22   4 8 10 10 11 1
9 LSU 8-3 -1.07   11   .179 10 1.37 13 1.93 5   2 5 8 8 8 3
10 Cincinnati 9-2 -1.21   -   .128 22 1.22 14 .79 72   3 4 5 7 9 2
11 Army 7-2 -1.27   -   .112 25 .98 23 .73 80   3 4 4 5 6 3
12 Fresno State 10-2 -1.28   21   .164 13 1.41 12 .72 81   3 5 10 10 11 1
13 Washington State 9-2 -1.29   13   .128 23 1.07 21 .71 83   2 5 6 8 10 1
14 Utah State 9-2 -1.41   -   .109 26 1.11 17 .59 97   2 3 6 8 9 2
15 Florida 7-3 -1.51   10   .140 15 1.10 18 1.49 17   2 6 7 8 8 2
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
16 Kentucky 8-3 -1.56   14   .130 21 .96 26 1.44 21   3 4 6 7 9 2
17 Appalachian State 9-2 -1.61   -   .076 38 .90 27 .39 114   1 3 3 4 7 4
18 Syracuse 8-3 -1.87   20   .066 40 .54 40 1.13 39   1 2 4 6 7 4
19 Penn State 9-3 -1.88   12   .143 14 1.18 15 1.12 42   3 4 8 10 10 2
20 Washington 9-3 -1.93   9   .203 7 1.55 10 1.07 45   4 7 8 9 11 1
21 Texas A&M 7-4 -1.96   19   .102 28 .81 30 2.04 3   2 4 7 8 9 2
22 Missouri 7-4 -2.10   23   .169 12 1.50 11 1.90 6   2 7 10 11 11 0
23 West Virginia 7-3 -2.13   16   .134 20 1.07 20 .87 65   2 6 7 7 9 1
24 North Carolina State 8-3 -2.19   -   .077 37 .76 31 .81 69   1 2 5 7 9 2
25 Boise State 10-3 -2.24   25   .137 17 1.13 16 .76 76   2 4 9 9 10 3
26 Temple 8-3 -2.27   -   .080 35 .68 34 .73 79   0 3 4 4 5 6
27 Mississippi State 7-4 -2.30   18   .176 11 1.75 7 1.70 11   7 7 9 10 10 1
28 Georgia Southern 8-3 -2.34   -   -.010 73 .07 61 .66 90   1 1 2 3 5 6
29 Buffalo 9-3 -2.46   -   .042 44 .43 41 .54 106   1 2 4 7 9 3
30 Troy 8-3 -2.56   -   -.004 67 -.01 69 .44 110   0 2 2 2 3 8
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
31 Stanford 7-4 -2.60   -   .095 30 .72 33 1.40 23   1 3 7 10 10 1
32 Auburn 6-5 -2.61   -   .095 29 .82 29 2.39 1   1 5 5 8 9 2
33 UAB 9-3 -2.62   -   -.001 63 .07 58 .38 116   0 0 2 6 7 5
34 Utah 8-4 -2.73   17   .134 19 .97 24 1.27 28   4 6 8 9 10 2
35 Texas 9-4 -2.80   15   .116 24 .87 28 1.20 34   2 3 7 8 10 3
36 North Texas 8-3 -2.85   -   .043 43 .38 44 .15 129   1 1 2 3 4 7
37 Iowa State 7-4 -2.94   24   .095 32 .74 32 1.06 47   1 3 6 7 8 3
38 Oregon 7-4 -3.05   -   .035 47 .30 47 .95 58   1 2 5 6 7 4
39 Arkansas State 7-4 -3.05   -   -.046 87 -.12 74 .95 59   0 0 1 1 2 9
40 South Carolina 6-5 -3.21   -   .070 39 .62 37 1.79 9   2 3 3 8 8 3
41 Iowa 7-4 -3.23   -   .138 16 1.07 19 .77 74   2 6 8 8 11 0
42 Northwestern 8-5 -3.41   22   .088 34 .58 38 1.59 13   3 5 6 8 9 4
43 Ohio 7-4 -3.44   -   .105 27 1.02 22 .56 104   2 3 5 6 7 4
44 Marshall 7-4 -3.73   -   -.014 75 -.15 78 .27 123   0 1 1 1 4 7
45 Florida International 7-4 -3.74   -   -.053 89 -.33 86 .26 124   0 0 1 1 2 9
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
46 Wisconsin 7-5 -3.74   -   .032 50 .33 46 1.26 29   2 3 3 5 6 6
47 Houston 7-4 -3.75   -   -.004 68 .07 59 .25 126   0 0 2 5 5 6
48 Georgia Tech 6-5 -3.76   -   -.007 71 .06 64 1.24 30   0 3 4 5 8 3
49 Michigan State 7-5 -3.76   -   .135 18 .97 25 1.24 31   3 5 7 9 10 2
50 Duke 6-5 -3.87   -   .033 48 .15 53 1.13 38   2 3 5 6 7 4
51 Arizona State 7-5 -3.94   -   .077 36 .54 39 1.06 49   1 2 5 6 9 3
52 Middle Tennessee 7-5 -3.95   -   -.002 65 .06 63 1.05 51   0 2 4 4 5 7
53 Memphis 7-5 -3.95   -   -.003 66 .06 62 1.05 53   0 2 3 4 5 7
54 Louisiana Tech 6-5 -4.11   -   -.092 99 -.73 95 .89 63   0 0 3 3 4 7
55 Boston College 6-5 -4.13   -   .011 59 .09 55 .87 64   0 2 4 5 5 6
56 San Diego State 6-5 -4.13   -   .038 45 .15 51 .87 66   1 1 3 4 5 6
57 Vanderbilt 5-6 -4.19   -   .033 49 .41 42 1.81 7   0 3 5 7 8 3
58 Pittsburgh 6-6 -4.22   -   .036 46 .30 48 1.78 10   1 3 5 7 10 2
59 Hawaii 7-5 -4.24   -   -.109 103 -.82 101 .76 75   0 1 2 2 2 10
60 California 6-5 -4.27   -   .006 61 -.06 71 .73 78   1 2 3 6 6 5
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
61 South Florida 6-5 -4.29   -   -.075 93 -.57 93 .71 82   0 0 0 2 2 9
62 Northern Illinois 8-5 -4.33   -   .018 56 .04 66 .67 88   0 1 1 4 7 6
63 Western Michigan 6-5 -4.35   -   -.059 91 -.41 89 .65 93   0 1 1 3 4 7
64 Miami 6-5 -4.40   -   .091 33 .68 35 .60 96   0 1 6 7 9 2
65 Toledo 6-5 -4.43   -   -.045 86 -.29 84 .57 100   0 1 1 2 3 8
66 Virginia 6-5 -4.44   -   .059 42 .41 43 .56 103   1 2 4 5 6 5
67 Nevada 6-5 -4.49   -   .013 58 .03 67 .51 107   0 1 2 5 6 5
68 Eastern Michigan 6-5 -4.49   -   -.014 76 -.14 77 .51 108   0 1 1 1 3 8
69 Louisiana Lafayette 6-6 -4.52   -   -.134 111 -.80 100 1.48 18   0 0 0 0 2 10
70 Southern Mississippi 5-5 -4.63   -   -.011 74 -.13 76 .37 117   0 0 1 2 4 6
71 TCU 5-6 -4.80   -   .017 57 .08 56 1.20 33   0 1 3 5 8 3
72 Tennessee 4-7 -4.80   -   -.042 84 -.29 85 2.20 2   1 2 2 3 4 7
73 Baylor 5-6 -4.80   -   -.034 79 -.23 82 1.20 35   0 1 3 3 6 5
74 BYU 5-6 -4.86   -   -.021 77 -.18 79 1.14 36   0 2 3 4 5 6
75 Purdue 6-6 -4.90   -   .095 31 .65 36 1.10 44   1 6 7 7 10 2
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
76 Minnesota 6-6 -4.95   -   .023 53 .15 52 1.05 50   3 4 4 5 7 5
77 Oklahoma State 5-6 -4.98   -   .062 41 .36 45 1.02 54   2 4 4 4 7 4
78 Wyoming 5-6 -5.02   -   -.053 90 -.34 87 .98 56   0 0 0 2 3 8
79 Wake Forest 5-6 -5.07   -   -.043 85 -.26 83 .93 61   2 2 2 2 3 8
80 Tulane 5-6 -5.22   -   -.067 92 -.49 91 .78 73   0 1 1 1 4 7
81 Miami (OH) 6-6 -5.34   -   .022 54 .13 54 .66 91   0 2 5 5 5 7
82 Virginia Tech 5-6 -5.38   -   -.040 82 -.42 90 .62 95   1 1 2 4 5 6
83 Mississippi 4-7 -5.43   -   -.006 70 .08 57 1.57 14   1 1 2 4 5 6
84 Liberty 4-6 -5.46   -   -.149 116 -1.14 107 .54 105   0 0 0 1 2 8
85 Maryland 5-7 -5.47   -   -.038 80 -.13 75 1.53 15   0 2 3 4 6 6
86 Indiana 5-7 -5.63   -   .025 52 .19 49 1.37 24   0 0 4 4 7 5
87 Louisiana Monroe 5-6 -5.65   -   -.107 102 -.79 99 .35 119   1 1 2 3 3 8
88 Florida State 4-7 -5.66   -   -.050 88 -.36 88 1.34 26   0 0 2 4 4 7
89 Kansas State 4-7 -5.70   -   -.039 81 -.23 81 1.30 27   1 2 3 4 7 4
90 USC 5-7 -5.87   -   .001 62 -.08 73 1.13 37   0 1 2 4 7 5
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
91 Florida Atlantic 4-7 -5.89   -   -.005 69 .01 68 1.11 43   1 1 2 4 5 6
92 SMU 4-7 -5.94   -   -.078 95 -.66 94 1.06 46   0 0 3 4 4 7
93 Colorado 4-7 -6.06   -   .008 60 .07 60 .94 60   0 2 5 6 6 5
94 Texas Tech 4-7 -6.09   -   .019 55 .04 65 .91 62   1 1 3 4 7 4
95 Air Force 4-7 -6.31   -   -.008 72 -.08 72 .69 86   0 0 0 4 4 7
96 Arizona 4-7 -6.33   -   -.001 64 -.04 70 .67 87   0 1 2 3 5 6
97 Nebraska 3-8 -6.52   -   .030 51 .16 50 1.48 19   0 4 4 5 5 6
98 Charlotte 4-7 -6.69   -   -.078 94 -.78 98 .31 121   0 0 1 2 3 8
99 Coastal Carolina 4-7 -6.70   -   -.188 123 -1.52 120 .30 122   1 1 1 1 1 10
100 Kansas 3-8 -6.95   -   -.092 98 -.77 97 1.05 52   0 0 0 0 2 9
101 Massachusetts 3-8 -7.02   -   -.212 126 -1.66 124 .98 57   0 0 0 0 1 10
102 Ball State 3-8 -7.17   -   -.141 114 -1.19 110 .83 68   0 1 1 1 1 10
103 East Carolina 3-8 -7.20   -   -.133 110 -.97 104 .80 70   0 0 1 2 2 9
104 Akron 3-8 -7.20   -   -.099 101 -1.03 106 .80 71   0 1 1 2 3 8
105 Colorado State 3-8 -7.25   -   -.162 120 -1.33 118 .75 77   0 0 0 1 1 10
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
106 Illinois 3-8 -7.30   -   -.149 115 -1.24 115 .70 84   1 1 1 1 3 8
107 UNLV 3-8 -7.43   -   -.084 96 -.74 96 .57 102   0 1 1 2 3 8
108 UCLA 3-9 -7.50   -   -.021 78 -.23 80 1.50 16   1 1 1 5 7 5
109 Western Kentucky 3-8 -7.75   -   -.115 105 -1.01 105 .25 125   0 0 0 1 1 10
110 Old Dominion 3-8 -7.83   -   -.129 106 -1.22 113 .17 128   0 0 0 1 2 9
111 Navy 2-9 -7.87   -   -.138 112 -1.22 112 1.13 40   0 0 0 0 2 9
112 Arkansas 1-10 -8.20   -   -.098 100 -.87 103 1.80 8   0 0 1 3 3 8
113 Louisville 1-10 -8.30   -   -.236 129 -2.10 129 1.70 12   0 0 0 0 0 11
114 New Mexico 2-9 -8.33   -   -.152 117 -1.30 116 .67 89   0 1 1 1 1 10
115 North Carolina 1-9 -8.38   -   -.040 83 -.53 92 .62 94   0 0 0 2 5 5
116 Tulsa 2-9 -8.51   -   -.091 97 -.82 102 .49 109   0 0 0 1 2 9
117 Bowling Green 2-9 -8.58   -   -.173 121 -1.52 121 .42 112   0 0 0 1 1 10
118 South Alabama 2-9 -8.59   -   -.207 125 -1.75 126 .41 113   0 0 0 0 0 11
119 UTSA 3-9 -8.62   -   -.221 128 -1.90 127 .38 115   0 0 0 0 0 12
120 Oregon State 1-10 -8.63   -   -.160 119 -1.54 122 1.37 25   0 1 1 3 3 8
 
Rk Team Rec EWM   CFP   FEI Rk APP Rk EL Rk   G90 G80 G70 G60 G50 Sub
121 New Mexico State 2-9 -8.63   -   -.196 124 -1.68 125 .37 118   0 0 0 0 0 11
122 Texas State 2-9 -8.81   -   -.132 108 -1.14 108 .19 127   0 0 0 2 2 9
123 San Jose State 1-10 -8.94   -   -.133 109 -1.20 111 1.06 48   0 0 0 2 2 9
124 Kent State 1-10 -9.41   -   -.154 118 -1.50 119 .59 98   0 0 0 0 1 10
125 Georgia State 1-10 -9.56   -   -.188 122 -1.61 123 .44 111   0 0 0 0 1 10
126 Rutgers 1-11 -9.78   -   -.129 107 -1.17 109 1.22 32   0 1 1 2 4 8
127 UTEP 1-10 -9.85   -   -.139 113 -1.31 117 .15 130   0 0 0 0 1 10
128 Connecticut 0-11 -10.14   -   -.288 130 -2.75 130 .86 67   0 0 0 0 0 11
129 Central Michigan 0-11 -10.34   -   -.114 104 -1.24 114 .66 92   0 0 0 0 3 8
130 Rice 1-11 -10.43   -   -.217 127 -1.95 128 .57 99   0 0 0 0 0 12