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The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency. Preseason projections are based on five-year results, recruiting success, and returning offensive and defensive production. Strength of Schedule ratings (SOS) represent the average number of losses an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would have against the team's regular season schedule. Each team's percent likelihood of finishing the regular season with zero losses (0L), one loss (1L), etc, are calculated from individual game win likelihoods, each a function of the preseason projected FEI ratings and an adjustment for home field advantage.

 

 

2018 FEI Ratings (preseason projections)

 

Rk Team FEI   SOS Rk   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
1 Alabama .279   1.06 49   .357 .398 .193 .047 .005 - - - - - - - -
2 Clemson .274   .94 57   .426 .360 .171 .035 .007 .001 - - - - - - -
3 Ohio State .254   1.00 54   .259 .425 .233 .076 .007 - - - - - - - -
4 Georgia .249   .87 59   .338 .391 .193 .074 .004 - - - - - - - -
5 Auburn .229   2.08 2   .032 .132 .311 .288 .179 .052 .006 - - - - - -
6 Notre Dame .207   1.13 37   .111 .271 .320 .190 .080 .022 .006 - - - - - -
7 Oklahoma .203   .83 62   .162 .319 .301 .160 .042 .016 - - - - - - -
8 Washington .192   1.13 36   .076 .243 .309 .222 .108 .036 .006 - - - - - -
9 Michigan State .173   1.06 48   .043 .188 .316 .274 .132 .042 .004 .001 - - - - -
10 Stanford .158   1.44 16   .012 .063 .181 .267 .276 .139 .047 .012 .002 .001 - - -
11 Mississippi State .157   1.56 11   .006 .052 .206 .334 .232 .114 .046 .009 .001 - - - -
12 Florida State .155   1.58 10   .004 .045 .134 .257 .281 .177 .079 .018 .005 - - - -
13 Wisconsin .152   .90 58   .035 .175 .294 .303 .150 .042 .001 - - - - - -
14 Michigan .152   1.73 5   - .035 .134 .251 .309 .181 .075 .011 .003 .001 - - -
15 Miami .148   .84 60   .039 .164 .267 .264 .175 .068 .020 .001 .002 - - - -
 
Rk Team FEI   SOS Rk   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
16 Penn State .148   1.17 33   .013 .089 .232 .310 .217 .098 .030 .008 .003 - - - -
17 USC .143   1.14 35   .013 .080 .173 .279 .251 .139 .054 .009 .002 - - - -
18 Central Florida .120   .28 114   .169 .314 .321 .135 .051 .010 - - - - - - -
19 TCU .116   1.29 28   - .023 .104 .191 .262 .242 .131 .037 .008 .002 - - -
20 LSU .115   2.02 3   - .001 .027 .071 .176 .293 .244 .131 .052 .005 - - -
21 Texas .108   1.03 52   .003 .031 .099 .204 .254 .221 .130 .045 .011 .002 - - -
22 Virginia Tech .099   1.03 51   .006 .027 .096 .226 .277 .213 .126 .023 .006 - - - -
23 Iowa .096   .64 77   .013 .084 .207 .280 .225 .133 .047 .008 .003 - - - -
24 Oregon .096   .83 61   .004 .030 .141 .260 .275 .185 .087 .015 .003 - - - -
25 Boise State .094   .29 112   .071 .258 .335 .195 .096 .040 .004 .001 - - - - -
26 Texas A&M .093   2.14 1   - .001 .003 .059 .188 .295 .263 .154 .031 .006 - - -
27 Oklahoma State .091   1.11 39   .001 .014 .068 .196 .264 .241 .153 .048 .013 .002 - - -
28 Baylor .085   1.08 44   .002 .008 .052 .158 .268 .240 .185 .064 .021 .001 .001 - -
29 Duke .085   1.42 18   - .010 .031 .131 .224 .254 .227 .090 .028 .003 .002 - -
30 Louisville .074   1.62 8   - .004 .023 .123 .229 .285 .209 .095 .027 .005 - - -
 
Rk Team FEI   SOS Rk   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
31 Florida .072   1.23 30   .001 .005 .043 .160 .269 .276 .161 .069 .015 .001 - - -
32 Arizona State .069   1.38 22   - - .012 .043 .135 .229 .262 .187 .100 .028 .003 .001 -
33 Utah .069   1.09 42   .001 .004 .016 .069 .152 .254 .252 .171 .061 .017 .003 - -
34 Boston College .066   1.33 26   - .003 .012 .065 .167 .260 .262 .168 .050 .013 - - -
35 Kansas State .064   1.25 29   .001 .001 .011 .066 .150 .271 .242 .176 .065 .016 .001 - -
36 South Carolina .062   1.40 20   - .002 .024 .104 .206 .291 .219 .111 .035 .008 - - -
37 Mississippi .059   1.42 19   - - .005 .051 .151 .250 .303 .171 .053 .016 - - -
38 North Carolina State .058   1.20 32   - .005 .033 .116 .202 .281 .224 .098 .031 .010 - - -
39 UCLA .056   1.36 24   - - .004 .025 .090 .159 .255 .238 .145 .065 .016 .003 -
40 Arizona .051   .67 74   .002 .007 .045 .128 .217 .252 .215 .097 .023 .012 .002 - -
41 Wake Forest .051   1.43 17   - .001 .012 .042 .092 .216 .288 .217 .101 .029 .002 - -
42 Northwestern .046   1.21 31   - - .005 .042 .101 .233 .244 .231 .110 .029 .005 - -
43 Iowa State .044   1.10 41   - .003 .007 .038 .112 .236 .273 .213 .092 .023 .003 - -
44 West Virginia .040   1.06 47   - - .008 .037 .077 .195 .263 .226 .138 .047 .006 .003 -
45 Houston .034   .29 113   .010 .073 .172 .272 .244 .143 .068 .014 .004 - - - -
 
Rk Team FEI   SOS Rk   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
46 Florida Atlantic .030   .76 68   - .021 .124 .244 .302 .218 .072 .016 .002 .001 - - -
47 Georgia Tech .030   1.65 6   - - - .005 .046 .146 .246 .267 .201 .070 .019 - -
48 Memphis .029   .33 106   .006 .054 .184 .297 .242 .147 .057 .010 .003 - - - -
49 Missouri .027   1.38 21   - - .005 .047 .138 .256 .286 .175 .071 .018 .004 - -
50 Marshall .023   .27 118   .011 .084 .201 .285 .243 .125 .040 .010 .001 - - - -
51 Pittsburgh .022   1.37 23   - - .001 .013 .026 .105 .207 .270 .233 .110 .032 .003 -
52 Arkansas .022   1.56 12   - - .001 .021 .071 .227 .297 .266 .095 .019 .003 - -
53 North Carolina .020   .79 65   - .001 .011 .051 .100 .203 .249 .227 .119 .031 .006 .002 -
54 California .017   .98 55   - - .002 .021 .078 .162 .257 .247 .164 .060 .008 .001 -
55 Washington State .015   .97 56   - - .010 .029 .110 .243 .255 .221 .104 .022 .006 - -
56 Texas Tech .014   1.12 38   - - .002 .008 .034 .112 .204 .256 .232 .108 .042 .002 -
57 Toledo .010   .33 107   .006 .052 .150 .254 .288 .169 .059 .017 .004 .001 - - -
58 Minnesota .009   1.07 46   - - .015 .052 .150 .249 .265 .173 .068 .023 .004 .001 -
59 BYU .008   1.08 45   - - .005 .035 .143 .293 .299 .161 .052 .009 .003 - -
60 Nebraska .005   1.59 9   - - - .010 .047 .155 .288 .265 .155 .067 .012 .001 -
 
Rk Team FEI   SOS Rk   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
61 San Diego State .005   .60 82   .002 .014 .098 .220 .310 .217 .104 .028 .007 - - - -
62 Temple -.003   .52 87   - .002 .046 .129 .236 .316 .175 .066 .024 .006 - - -
63 Louisiana Tech -.004   .63 78   .002 .013 .071 .212 .297 .253 .114 .031 .007 - - - -
64 Northern Illinois -.006   .65 75   - .002 .019 .070 .172 .263 .256 .152 .050 .012 .003 .001 -
65 Purdue -.007   1.16 34   - - - .003 .026 .055 .159 .254 .249 .165 .073 .015 .001
66 Kentucky -.008   1.09 43   - - - .011 .028 .123 .224 .310 .211 .078 .014 .001 -
67 Navy -.009   .68 73   - .005 .059 .145 .228 .218 .191 .101 .046 .007 - - -
68 Fresno State -.012   .41 97   .001 .007 .047 .174 .226 .253 .185 .081 .018 .008 - - -
69 Tennessee -.012   1.75 4   - - - .011 .040 .171 .279 .284 .166 .041 .006 .002 -
70 Appalachian State -.017   .40 98   .001 .034 .165 .278 .279 .153 .071 .015 .003 .001 - - -
71 South Florida -.020   .33 108   .001 .008 .049 .112 .197 .279 .207 .111 .033 .003 - - -
72 Georgia Southern -.020   .73 70   - .040 .133 .252 .276 .193 .082 .023 .001 - - - -
73 Indiana -.022   1.34 25   - - - .005 .023 .100 .205 .282 .255 .092 .032 .006 -
74 Western Michigan -.024   .38 103   .001 .014 .064 .148 .241 .248 .157 .090 .034 .002 .001 - -
75 Syracuse -.029   1.55 13   - - - - .005 .019 .114 .216 .309 .249 .080 .008 -
 
Rk Team FEI   SOS Rk   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
76 Virginia -.036   .78 66   - - .001 .005 .019 .089 .170 .275 .281 .132 .027 .001 -
77 Arkansas State -.037   .77 67   - .016 .065 .203 .269 .225 .152 .056 .012 .002 - - -
78 Tulane -.039   .80 63   - .001 .004 .021 .112 .216 .232 .212 .133 .057 .012 - -
79 Maryland -.042   1.45 15   - - - - .005 .016 .056 .165 .310 .270 .134 .038 .006
80 Army -.043   .65 76   - .002 .055 .210 .286 .257 .132 .046 .012 - - - -
81 Utah State -.045   .62 79   - .001 .022 .124 .245 .314 .192 .071 .024 .007 - - -
82 Ohio -.046   .19 127   .001 .010 .051 .123 .241 .245 .184 .102 .038 .004 .001 - -
83 Wyoming -.046   .27 116   .001 .005 .032 .102 .222 .283 .194 .110 .042 .007 .001 .001 -
84 Buffalo -.047   .22 125   .001 .012 .043 .118 .221 .288 .186 .085 .038 .008 - - -
85 Middle Tennessee -.048   .76 69   - .002 .019 .069 .152 .296 .239 .143 .063 .013 .004 - -
86 Troy -.049   .27 117   .001 .007 .044 .125 .246 .270 .189 .094 .022 .002 - - -
87 Bowling Green -.052   .39 102   - - .010 .056 .168 .224 .268 .183 .062 .027 .002 - -
88 Western Kentucky -.052   .61 81   - - .008 .032 .133 .250 .290 .192 .075 .019 .001 - -
89 SMU -.062   .69 72   - - - .006 .026 .089 .185 .268 .233 .145 .044 .004 -
90 Colorado -.064   1.00 53   - - - - .005 .023 .095 .214 .293 .259 .101 .010 -
 
Rk Team FEI   SOS Rk   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
91 Vanderbilt -.065   1.31 27   - - - .003 .005 .020 .094 .186 .294 .270 .112 .016 -
92 Cincinnati -.068   .44 94   - - .003 .018 .070 .187 .240 .236 .182 .055 .009 - -
93 Tulsa -.068   .54 85   - - - .001 .021 .107 .188 .280 .260 .113 .024 .006 -
94 Nevada -.069   .23 123   - .001 .013 .057 .127 .235 .260 .184 .090 .029 .004 - -
95 Miami (OH) -.079   .25 121   - .001 .001 .018 .056 .127 .181 .257 .205 .117 .031 .005 .001
96 UAB -.079   .30 111   .001 .003 .040 .087 .195 .281 .228 .122 .035 .007 .001 - -
97 Rutgers -.086   1.53 14   - - - - .001 .012 .044 .138 .245 .312 .173 .070 .005
98 Kansas -.087   1.10 40   - - - .001 - .003 .021 .112 .255 .331 .228 .049 -
99 Air Force -.088   .32 110   - - - .008 .034 .093 .210 .281 .220 .109 .037 .008 -
100 Massachusetts -.091   .79 64   - - .001 .013 .070 .175 .270 .253 .153 .052 .011 .002 -
101 Colorado State -.091   .39 101   - - .001 .020 .073 .185 .259 .239 .152 .061 .010 - -
102 Louisiana Monroe -.091   .37 104   - - .008 .029 .098 .194 .239 .240 .128 .051 .009 .004 -
103 Oregon State -.091   1.63 7   - - - - - .002 .011 .049 .164 .311 .328 .135 -
104 North Texas -.102   .18 129   - .001 .006 .055 .110 .225 .265 .202 .107 .023 .006 - -
105 Illinois -.102   .71 71   - - - - .002 .012 .070 .146 .260 .304 .171 .035 -
 
Rk Team FEI   SOS Rk   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
106 Eastern Michigan -.103   .23 122   - - .001 .011 .038 .120 .200 .260 .223 .110 .032 .005 -
107 UNLV -.104   .42 95   - - .002 .028 .098 .187 .269 .233 .135 .041 .007 - -
108 Ball State -.109   .59 84   - - - .004 .023 .081 .164 .285 .226 .160 .049 .008 -
109 South Alabama -.109   .39 100   - - .001 .006 .018 .077 .195 .280 .246 .140 .033 .004 -
110 Coastal Carolina -.110   .22 124   - - .001 .007 .044 .097 .200 .257 .234 .116 .043 .001 -
111 UTSA -.111   .45 91   - - - .004 .021 .092 .185 .297 .236 .111 .048 .006 -
112 Louisiana Lafayette -.122   1.05 50   - - - .002 .026 .116 .197 .307 .203 .117 .027 .005 -
113 Old Dominion -.125   .26 119   - - .001 .005 .059 .125 .211 .249 .228 .094 .026 .002 -
114 Southern Mississippi -.133   .62 80   - - - .006 .032 .097 .205 .288 .208 .119 .040 .005 -
115 Central Michigan -.134   .53 86   - - - .001 .004 .020 .100 .208 .275 .243 .119 .030 -
116 Kent State -.135   .48 88   - - .001 - .009 .030 .096 .197 .297 .236 .113 .021 -
117 New Mexico -.140   .44 92   - - - .002 .005 .026 .104 .188 .299 .247 .114 .015 -
118 Akron -.141   .34 105   - - - - .008 .024 .071 .173 .297 .262 .133 .032 -
119 Florida International -.145   .39 99   - - - .003 .011 .034 .118 .239 .272 .218 .086 .019 -
120 New Mexico State -.147   .21 126   - - .001 .005 .039 .092 .211 .274 .224 .110 .041 .003 -
 
Rk Team FEI   SOS Rk   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
121 East Carolina -.148   .47 89   - - - - - .007 .029 .082 .274 .345 .217 .046 -
122 Georgia State -.149   .33 109   - - - - .003 .021 .085 .193 .306 .255 .114 .023 -
123 Connecticut -.150   .46 90   - - - - .001 .007 .038 .100 .258 .307 .220 .069 -
124 Charlotte -.152   .28 115   - - - .001 .011 .031 .109 .206 .296 .230 .099 .017 -
125 Hawaii -.163   .25 120   - - - .001 .009 .033 .102 .223 .283 .225 .101 .023 -
126 Rice -.164   .44 93   - - - .004 .012 .060 .148 .250 .256 .193 .066 .011 -
127 Texas State -.166   .12 130   - - - .003 .008 .040 .096 .219 .264 .237 .111 .022 -
128 Liberty -.175   .60 83   - - .001 .002 .016 .049 .145 .283 .301 .155 .048 - -
129 San Jose State -.178   .41 96   - - - - - .006 .029 .104 .255 .318 .223 .065 -
130 UTEP -.199   .19 128   - - - - .002 .013 .048 .142 .250 .322 .169 .054 -