Projections for all 35 bowl games are posted on this site according to the FEI ratings and methodology I have been using and tracking all season long. For the bowl season, I will also be posting projections using a new methodology I have recently developed. A version of this methodology was first posted in an FEI column at Football Outsiders last month, and projections for the four non-championship BCS bowls are featured in the current issue of ESPN the Magazine.
For this new projection methodology, I identified 25 separate metrics that comprise a team's overall efficiency profile. These factors include the overal FEI, OFEI, DFEI, STE, and FPA ratings, plus offensive, defensive, and special teams statistics published weekly at Football Outsiders. Using the 25 metrics, I then compared each bowl game matchup to every other game matchup played in the last five years, 7152 in all. The projection was then based on the 100 most similar games, producing a projected scoring distribution, a mean score projection, and a win likelihood for each game.
New method projections are posted here, along with a chart of the scoring margins of the 100 most similar games. The success of this methodology against the current method is visualized in the chart above.