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BCF Toys is the home of college football data visualized by Brian Fremeau. In addition to producing the data, graphics, and analysis archived here, I write regularly for Football Outsiders, ESPN Insider, and other web and print publications.

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05.08.13 :: ESPN Insider :: Oregon and USC lead the way in the preliminary Pac-12 Conference FEI projections. Read more articles like this in my ESPN Archive.

05.07.13 :: ESPN Insider :: Clemson and Miami lead the way in the preliminary Atlantic Coast Conference FEI projections. Read more articles like this in my ESPN Archive.

05.06.13 :: ESPN Insider :: Alabama and South Carolina lead the way in the preliminary Southeastern Conference FEI projections. Read more articles like this in my ESPN Archive.

05.03.13 :: ESPN Insider :: Ohio State and Michigan State lead the way in the preliminary Big Ten conference FEI projections. Read more articles like this in my ESPN Archive.

05.01.13 :: ESPN Insider :: Texas and Oklahoma State lead the way in the preliminary Big 12 conference FEI projections. Read more articles like this in my ESPN Archive.

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Saturday
Dec152012

Bowl Projections

DateSaturday, December 15, 2012 at 10:00AM

 

Projections for all 35 bowl games are posted on this site according to the FEI ratings and methodology I have been using and tracking all season long. For the bowl season, I will also be posting projections using a new methodology I have recently developed. A version of this methodology was first posted in an FEI column at Football Outsiders last month, and projections for the four non-championship BCS bowls are featured in the current issue of ESPN the Magazine.

For this new projection methodology, I identified 25 separate metrics that comprise a team's overall efficiency profile. These factors include the overal FEI, OFEI, DFEI, STE, and FPA ratings, plus offensive, defensive, and special teams statistics published weekly at Football Outsiders. Using the 25 metrics, I then compared each bowl game matchup to every other game matchup played in the last five years, 7152 in all. The projection was then based on the 100 most similar games, producing a projected scoring distribution, a mean score projection, and a win likelihood for each game.

New method projections are posted here, along with a chart of the scoring margins of the 100 most similar games.  The success of this methodology against the current method is visualized in the chart above.

AuthorBrian Fremeau | CommentPost a Comment | Reference1 Reference |

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