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BCF Toys is the home of college football data visualized by Brian Fremeau. In addition to producing the data, graphics, and analysis archived here, I write regularly for Football Outsiders, ESPN Insider, and other web and print publications.

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05.08.13 :: ESPN Insider :: Oregon and USC lead the way in the preliminary Pac-12 Conference FEI projections. Read more articles like this in my ESPN Archive.

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05.03.13 :: ESPN Insider :: Ohio State and Michigan State lead the way in the preliminary Big Ten conference FEI projections. Read more articles like this in my ESPN Archive.

05.01.13 :: ESPN Insider :: Texas and Oklahoma State lead the way in the preliminary Big 12 conference FEI projections. Read more articles like this in my ESPN Archive.

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Sunday
May202012

Program Ratings and Next Year Success

DateSunday, May 20, 2012 at 12:00PM

The Program FEI (PFEI) ratings published on this site represent a rolling five year period of drive efficiency data, weighted for more recent seasons. PFEI has a strong correlation with next-year FEI ratings (.752) and is used as the baseline data for my annual FEI projections. For years in which drive data is unavailable, I have developed an Approximated Program FEI (APFEI) rating based on final scores instead of possessions.

A top PFEI rating is no guarantee of elite success each season. Last year, Alabama became the first national champion since Florida State in 1999 to win the title after starting the year with the top program rating in the country. That said, it is rare for national championship contenders to emerge in a given year without having built sustained success over time.

  • In the nine-year history of FEI, only two teams have finished in the top-5 with a PFEI/APFEI rating outside the top-40 at the start of the season: 2007 Oregon and 2010 Stanford.
  • Only two teams have finished outside the top-40 in FEI with a PFEI/APFEI top-5 rating at the start of the season: 2010 Texas and 2011 Florida.
  • In each of the last eight seasons, both participants in the BCS championship game were ranked among the top-20 in PFEI/APFEI at the start of the season.
  • The national champion(s) in 23 of the last 27 seasons was ranked among the PFEI/APFEI top-20 at the start of the season.

 

AuthorBrian Fremeau | Comment2 Comments | Reference13 References |

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Reader Comments (2)

Wow, so the worst BCS winning team was Oklahoma, yes? And by a sizable margin.

October 4, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterPatrick

Oklahoma in 2000. That was Bob Stoops 2nd year as head coach. So the initial PFEI/APFEI included
his first year (7-4 I think), 3 years of Coach Blake, and 1 year of Coach Schnellenberger. Those were
some bleak years so it is not surprising that the PFEI/APFEI was low at the start of the season based
on their recent history (1995-1999).

USC, Florida, LSU and Oklahoma seem to be the only programs in the Top 10 PFEI over the last 5 years.

November 27, 2012 | Unregistered CommenterKurt

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