Updated Mean Wins

Mean wins projections are a function of the FEI rating of each team and the regular season opponents scheduled to be played. Through the first three weeks of the season, the shift in mean wins projections for some teams has been dramatic. Half of all teams have had a projection shift of less than one game, but the average shift to date in mean wins for all teams is 1.2 games.

Projections

2012 FEI team projections are posted and the college football season begins this Thursday night. For all the work we do to produce the best projections possible, a pair of graphics like these are a nice reminder that it should take all year to make complete sense of the data we collect and analyze. I'm looking forward to enjoying another season of surprises.

Program Ratings and Next Year Success

The Program FEI (PFEI) ratings published on this site represent a rolling five year period of drive efficiency data, weighted for more recent seasons. PFEI has a strong correlation with next-year FEI ratings (.752) and is used as the baseline data for my annual FEI projections. For years in which drive data is unavailable, I have developed an Approximated Program FEI (APFEI) rating based on final scores instead of possessions.

A top PFEI rating is no guarantee of elite success each season. Last year, Alabama became the first national champion since Florida State in 1999 to win the title after starting the year with the top program rating in the country. That said, it is rare for national championship contenders to emerge in a given year without having built sustained success over time.

• In the nine-year history of FEI, only two teams have finished in the top-5 with a PFEI/APFEI rating outside the top-40 at the start of the season: 2007 Oregon and 2010 Stanford.
• Only two teams have finished outside the top-40 in FEI with a PFEI/APFEI top-5 rating at the start of the season: 2010 Texas and 2011 Florida.
• In each of the last eight seasons, both participants in the BCS championship game were ranked among the top-20 in PFEI/APFEI at the start of the season.
• The national champion(s) in 23 of the last 27 seasons was ranked among the PFEI/APFEI top-20 at the start of the season.

Championship Kicks

The only scoring in the first matchup between LSU and Alabama came via the legs of the field goal kickers. Drew Alleman has been much more reliable than Alabama’s duo of Jeremy Shelley and Cade Foster this season, but it isn’t like Alleman has a big leg. Neither team made a single field goal this year on an attempt of 47 yards or more. The four missed attempts by Alabama on November 5th represent four of the eight longest attempts of the Crimson Tide’s entire season. On kicks attempted from 30 yards or less, Shelley/Foster were 10/10 on the year. Alleman was 9/10, three for three on attempts in the first LSU-Alabama game.

FEI Data Update

At Football Outsiders this weekend, I published the overall, offensive, defensive, and special teams ratings tables for FEI data from the 2007 through 2010 football seasons. Links to each table are available using the drop down menus from the overall FEI stats page and can be found in the FEI ratings page on this site as well. The correlation of each metric to win percentage, and the correlation of each stat from year to year are visualized in the graphic below.