2019 Projects
SFP Ratings
Possession Success Rate

Strength of Schedule Ratings
:: Team History :: 2019 :: 2018 :: 2017 :: 2016 :: 2015 :: 2014 :: 2013 :: 2012 :: 2011 :: 2010 :: 2009 :: 2008 :: 2007

 

Strength of Schedule is represented in several ways, including the per-possession opponent adjustment (OA) used to produce each team's overall FEI rating, the per-possession offensive opponent adjustment (OOA) used to produce OFEI Offense ratings, the per-possession defensive opponent adjustment (DOA) used to produce DFEI Defense ratings, and the per-possession special teams opponent adjustment (SOA) used to produce SFEI Special Teams ratings. Remaining columns represent schedule strength as a function of the FEI ratings of each team's opponents and the location (home/away/neutral) of each game. EL ratings represent the average number of losses an elite team (two standard deviations better than aveage) would have against the schedule. VGL ratings represent the average number of losses a very good team (1.5 standard deviations better than average) would have against the schedule. GL ratings represent the average number of losses a good team (one standard deviation better than average) would have against the schedule. AAL ratings represent the average number of losses an above average team (0.5 standard deviations better than average) would have against the schedule. AL ratings represent the average number of losses an average team would have against the schedule.

Ratings and supporting data are calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games.

 

 

2009 Strength of Schedule Ratings (final)

 

Team W-L   OA Rk OOA Rk DOA Rk SOA Rk   EL Rk VGL Rk GL Rk AAL Rk AL Rk
Alabama 13-0   .28 1 .32 1 .22 5 .03 5   2.75 1 3.94 1 5.27 1 6.74 1 8.18 1
Mississippi State 4-7   .28 2 .23 9 .31 1 .04 2   2.28 7 3.39 6 4.63 6 5.97 10 7.27 13
Oklahoma 7-5   .24 3 .19 19 .28 2 .05 1   2.22 9 3.29 9 4.56 10 5.89 12 7.23 14
Baylor 3-8   .22 4 .27 3 .16 14 .03 7   2.05 13 3.08 16 4.28 18 5.58 21 6.87 23
South Carolina 6-6   .21 5 .16 25 .28 3 .02 24   2.41 3 3.44 4 4.69 5 6.02 7 7.35 12
Arkansas 7-5   .21 6 .21 13 .19 10 .03 11   2.38 4 3.43 5 4.60 9 5.84 13 7.13 17
Georgia 7-5   .19 7 .19 22 .22 6 .01 42   2.22 8 3.37 7 4.69 4 6.10 5 7.51 7
Auburn 7-5   .19 8 .28 2 .08 32 .01 35   2.06 12 3.14 14 4.39 16 5.77 16 7.15 16
Florida State 6-6   .19 9 .24 7 .16 17 .00 59   2.36 5 3.46 3 4.74 3 6.15 2 7.52 6
Miami 8-4   .18 10 .23 8 .15 18 .02 21   2.03 14 3.15 13 4.46 12 5.91 11 7.37 9
Virginia Tech 10-3   .18 11 .27 4 .05 40 .01 37   2.00 15 3.16 12 4.51 11 6.01 8 7.56 5
LSU 9-4   .16 12 .19 20 .10 26 .00 56   2.47 2 3.51 2 4.75 2 6.11 4 7.49 8
Arizona 7-5   .16 13 .20 15 .10 28 .04 4   1.90 20 2.96 19 4.22 20 5.60 19 7.01 18
Virginia 3-8   .16 14 .23 10 .10 25 .02 20   1.77 30 2.75 29 3.94 28 5.21 32 6.48 37
Michigan State 5-7   .15 15 .15 26 .15 20 -.01 70   1.83 26 2.88 25 4.17 21 5.58 20 7.00 19
 
Team W-L   OA Rk OOA Rk DOA Rk SOA Rk   EL Rk VGL Rk GL Rk AAL Rk AL Rk
Florida 12-1   .15 16 .12 34 .17 13 .03 6   2.19 10 3.29 10 4.60 8 6.09 6 7.58 4
Oregon 10-3   .15 17 .22 11 .06 36 .02 13   2.00 16 3.12 15 4.40 15 5.83 14 7.36 10
Texas 13-1   .15 18 .26 5 .05 44 .00 51   2.09 11 3.22 11 4.61 7 6.14 3 7.70 2
North Carolina 6-5   .15 19 .04 50 .24 4 .02 15   1.79 28 2.79 27 3.96 26 5.24 31 6.53 35
Illinois 2-9   .13 20 .05 48 .21 7 .01 45   1.64 42 2.63 38 3.78 38 5.03 41 6.33 44
Mississippi 7-4   .13 21 .20 17 .05 42 .00 64   1.72 32 2.65 36 3.74 41 5.01 43 6.27 48
Kansas 4-7   .13 22 .17 24 .09 31 .02 18   1.69 33 2.63 37 3.73 42 4.92 47 6.16 54
Kentucky 6-6   .13 23 .25 6 .01 59 -.01 76   1.95 18 2.92 22 4.11 24 5.43 24 6.76 25
Minnesota 5-7   .13 24 .19 21 .04 46 -.01 88   1.83 25 2.90 24 4.14 23 5.51 22 6.94 22
North Carolina State 3-7   .12 25 .20 18 .05 41 .00 50   1.50 57 2.33 59 3.35 62 4.50 66 5.70 73
Oklahoma State 8-4   .12 26 .12 33 .14 21 .01 44   1.88 22 2.91 23 4.09 25 5.38 25 6.75 27
Georgia Tech 10-3   .12 27 .22 12 .01 58 .04 3   1.87 23 3.04 17 4.44 13 6.01 9 7.63 3
Clemson 8-5   .10 28 .04 49 .15 19 .01 31   1.79 27 2.93 21 4.29 17 5.79 15 7.35 11
Nebraska 10-4   .10 29 .13 29 .08 33 .02 25   2.00 17 3.00 18 4.25 19 5.69 17 7.20 15
Tennessee 7-6   .10 30 .18 23 -.03 74 .03 12   2.34 6 3.31 8 4.41 14 5.65 18 6.99 20
 
Team W-L   OA Rk OOA Rk DOA Rk SOA Rk   EL Rk VGL Rk GL Rk AAL Rk AL Rk
Pittsburgh 9-3   .10 31 .03 54 .16 15 -.02 98   1.41 68 2.41 52 3.63 47 5.05 39 6.56 34
Oregon State 7-5   .10 32 .00 62 .21 9 .01 32   1.68 35 2.68 33 3.85 33 5.19 33 6.59 31
Boston College 7-5   .09 33 .10 40 .09 29 .01 36   1.65 41 2.63 39 3.83 36 5.18 34 6.58 32
Purdue 5-7   .08 34 .00 63 .16 16 .00 53   1.44 61 2.39 55 3.57 51 4.88 51 6.29 46
Connecticut 7-5   .08 35 .20 16 -.02 68 -.01 86   1.68 34 2.67 34 3.90 31 5.25 29 6.65 29
Notre Dame 6-6   .08 36 -.03 70 .19 12 .00 48   1.51 55 2.49 48 3.65 46 4.99 44 6.46 39
Louisville 3-8   .08 37 .12 35 .03 50 .02 28   1.59 46 2.49 47 3.58 50 4.84 52 6.10 55
Washington 5-7   .07 38 .03 51 .11 23 .03 10   1.57 48 2.53 44 3.71 43 5.05 38 6.47 38
Iowa 10-2   .07 39 .02 57 .11 24 .02 29   1.76 31 2.73 31 3.88 32 5.16 35 6.50 36
Cincinnati 11-1   .07 40 .03 52 .10 27 -.01 68   1.67 38 2.59 41 3.75 40 5.04 40 6.42 40
Texas A&M 6-7   .07 41 .13 32 .02 56 .01 38   1.79 29 2.75 30 3.92 30 5.24 30 6.63 30
Michigan 4-7   .07 42 .07 45 .08 34 -.01 83   1.56 49 2.40 54 3.47 58 4.62 60 5.79 69
Indiana 3-8   .07 43 .21 14 -.08 87 -.01 78   1.55 50 2.40 53 3.50 56 4.72 58 5.99 57
Missouri 7-5   .06 44 .10 42 .03 52 .02 14   1.41 66 2.38 57 3.55 54 4.88 50 6.28 47
Texas Tech 8-4   .06 45 .01 61 .12 22 .01 30   1.87 24 2.77 28 3.83 37 5.01 42 6.26 49
 
Team W-L   OA Rk OOA Rk DOA Rk SOA Rk   EL Rk VGL Rk GL Rk AAL Rk AL Rk
Stanford 8-5   .06 46 .13 27 -.01 65 -.01 73   1.66 40 2.66 35 3.84 34 5.25 28 6.72 28
Wake Forest 4-7   .06 47 -.10 84 .21 8 .02 16   1.41 65 2.28 62 3.39 61 4.64 59 5.92 59
Vanderbilt 1-10   .06 48 .12 36 -.02 67 .02 22   1.93 19 2.86 26 3.93 29 5.15 36 6.39 41
Kansas State 4-6   .06 49 .13 28 -.02 69 .01 33   1.47 59 2.33 60 3.34 63 4.42 70 5.56 77
Syracuse 3-8   .05 50 .10 38 .02 55 -.01 85   1.50 58 2.38 56 3.42 59 4.61 61 5.85 63
Maryland 1-10   .05 51 .10 37 .01 60 .01 34   1.22 84 2.13 73 3.24 67 4.51 65 5.90 60
Ohio State 11-2   .05 52 .09 43 .03 54 -.01 74   1.68 36 2.71 32 3.94 27 5.32 26 6.76 24
Washington State 1-11   .05 53 .02 56 .06 38 .02 26   1.58 47 2.56 43 3.76 39 5.13 37 6.57 33
Wyoming 6-6   .05 54 .00 65 .09 30 .00 58   1.66 39 2.58 42 3.69 44 4.95 46 6.24 50
Colorado 3-9   .04 55 .02 55 .06 35 .01 47   1.61 45 2.52 46 3.67 45 4.97 45 6.35 42
Wisconsin 9-3   .04 56 .05 47 .03 53 .02 17   1.29 78 2.24 65 3.40 60 4.72 57 6.17 53
West Virginia 8-4   .03 57 .01 60 .04 48 .02 27   1.36 71 2.30 61 3.47 57 4.80 53 6.23 51
South Florida 6-5   .03 58 -.15 95 .19 11 .03 8   1.40 69 2.25 64 3.31 64 4.55 62 5.85 65
USC 9-4   .02 59 .10 39 -.06 83 .01 46   1.90 21 2.94 20 4.15 22 5.51 23 6.99 21
UCLA 7-6   .02 60 -.01 67 .06 37 .00 61   1.63 43 2.60 40 3.83 35 5.27 27 6.75 26
 
Team W-L   OA Rk OOA Rk DOA Rk SOA Rk   EL Rk VGL Rk GL Rk AAL Rk AL Rk
TCU 11-1   .02 61 .13 30 -.09 90 -.01 69   1.61 44 2.48 49 3.56 52 4.78 55 6.06 56
Miami (OH) 1-11   .01 62 -.01 66 .04 49 .00 49   1.23 82 2.13 74 3.23 68 4.49 67 5.88 61
Penn State 10-2   .00 63 .10 41 -.09 93 .02 23   1.17 88 2.03 83 3.10 81 4.41 72 5.81 68
California 7-5   .00 64 .08 44 -.08 89 .03 9   1.53 51 2.46 50 3.60 48 4.90 48 6.33 45
Arizona State 3-8   .00 65 -.03 71 .04 47 .01 41   1.35 72 2.17 71 3.19 71 4.40 75 5.70 74
Duke 4-6   .00 66 .01 59 -.02 66 -.02 94   1.34 73 2.14 72 3.16 76 4.29 78 5.47 79
UNLV 4-7   .00 67 -.02 69 .05 43 -.01 75   1.41 67 2.13 75 3.11 78 4.24 80 5.43 82
New Mexico 1-11   .00 68 .06 46 -.04 77 -.01 87   1.68 37 2.53 45 3.60 49 4.77 56 5.97 58
Memphis 1-10   .00 69 .00 64 .00 62 -.01 81   1.23 81 2.10 77 3.18 72 4.40 74 5.71 72
East Carolina 8-5   -.01 70 -.05 76 .03 51 .00 60   1.44 63 2.37 58 3.55 53 4.89 49 6.35 43
Air Force 7-5   -.01 71 -.02 68 -.01 64 .00 65   1.51 54 2.23 67 3.30 65 4.51 64 5.77 70
Colorado State 2-9   -.02 72 -.08 81 .04 45 -.01 71   1.32 74 2.05 81 3.02 82 4.12 83 5.33 85
San Jose State 1-10   -.03 73 -.13 86 .06 39 .02 19   1.47 60 2.25 63 3.20 70 4.30 77 5.45 81
Navy 9-4   -.03 74 .01 58 -.08 85 -.02 93   1.53 52 2.41 51 3.51 55 4.79 54 6.20 52
BYU 11-2   -.04 75 -.04 75 -.04 76 .00 55   1.23 83 2.02 84 3.12 77 4.42 69 5.84 66
 
Team W-L   OA Rk OOA Rk DOA Rk SOA Rk   EL Rk VGL Rk GL Rk AAL Rk AL Rk
Northwestern 7-5   -.04 76 -.06 77 -.04 75 -.03 114   1.38 70 2.23 69 3.30 66 4.54 63 5.83 67
Rutgers 7-4   -.05 77 .03 53 -.13 100 .00 57   1.02 100 1.80 93 2.79 93 3.98 91 5.26 91
Utah 10-3   -.06 78 -.04 72 -.04 78 -.02 107   1.53 53 2.23 66 3.21 69 4.35 76 5.63 76
Iowa State 6-6   -.06 79 .13 31 -.26 115 .01 40   1.21 86 2.07 79 3.18 73 4.47 68 5.87 62
Utah State 3-8   -.07 80 -.18 102 .02 57 -.01 90   1.44 62 2.23 68 3.17 75 4.24 79 5.42 83
Louisiana Tech 3-8   -.08 81 -.20 104 .01 61 .01 39   1.42 64 2.18 70 3.11 80 4.16 82 5.27 89
Rice 2-10   -.08 82 -.10 83 -.09 92 -.01 80   1.30 77 2.11 76 3.18 74 4.41 71 5.76 71
Houston 9-4   -.09 83 -.04 73 -.14 104 .00 54   1.22 85 2.06 80 3.11 79 4.41 73 5.85 64
Marshall 6-6   -.09 84 -.10 82 -.08 88 -.01 91   1.03 98 1.80 94 2.79 92 3.98 90 5.30 87
Bowling Green 7-6   -.09 85 -.13 87 -.06 80 -.02 99   1.03 99 1.84 90 2.92 86 4.22 81 5.67 75
Akron 2-9   -.10 86 -.07 78 -.11 96 -.01 79   1.11 91 1.83 91 2.75 96 3.79 100 4.95 104
Central Florida 7-5   -.10 87 -.18 100 -.01 63 -.01 82   1.24 80 1.99 86 2.86 88 3.98 89 5.27 90
Tulane 2-9   -.10 88 -.15 93 -.09 91 .01 43   1.01 102 1.74 99 2.68 99 3.82 99 5.08 100
Buffalo 4-7   -.11 89 -.08 80 -.12 99 .00 63   .80 115 1.52 108 2.44 107 3.58 107 4.84 106
Fresno State 7-5   -.11 90 -.15 92 -.06 82 -.02 102   1.31 75 2.04 82 2.99 83 4.08 84 5.30 88
 
Team W-L   OA Rk OOA Rk DOA Rk SOA Rk   EL Rk VGL Rk GL Rk AAL Rk AL Rk
Boise State 13-0   -.11 91 -.17 96 -.05 79 -.01 67   1.10 92 1.85 89 2.82 89 3.99 88 5.32 86
Ohio 8-5   -.12 92 -.13 88 -.10 95 -.02 112   .96 106 1.69 102 2.77 94 4.05 86 5.50 78
San Diego State 3-8   -.13 93 -.04 74 -.22 113 .00 62   1.27 79 2.00 85 2.92 85 3.97 92 5.08 99
Central Michigan 11-2   -.13 94 -.13 90 -.12 97 -.01 66   .98 105 1.77 95 2.79 91 4.06 85 5.46 80
Southern Mississippi 6-6   -.13 95 -.13 89 -.13 102 -.01 89   .81 114 1.54 107 2.46 106 3.62 105 4.98 102
Tulsa 4-7   -.13 96 -.23 108 -.02 70 -.02 95   1.13 90 1.76 97 2.57 105 3.58 106 4.73 107
Florida International 3-9   -.14 97 -.19 103 -.08 86 -.02 113   1.50 56 2.08 78 2.93 84 3.97 93 5.15 95
Troy 9-4   -.14 98 -.24 109 -.03 73 -.02 103   1.30 76 1.92 88 2.88 87 4.05 87 5.34 84
SMU 7-5   -.15 99 -.26 112 -.03 72 -.02 105   1.20 87 1.94 87 2.82 90 3.89 94 5.15 94
UAB 5-7   -.15 100 -.25 110 -.03 71 -.02 109   .99 104 1.72 100 2.71 97 3.88 95 5.22 92
Toledo 5-7   -.15 101 -.08 79 -.22 112 -.01 77   1.00 103 1.68 104 2.65 102 3.76 102 4.97 103
New Mexico State 2-10   -.15 102 -.27 115 -.06 81 -.02 101   1.16 89 1.82 92 2.76 95 3.87 96 5.11 97
Northern Illinois 6-6   -.16 103 -.18 98 -.13 103 -.03 118   1.05 95 1.70 101 2.59 104 3.67 104 4.86 105
Western Kentucky 0-11   -.16 104 -.17 97 -.13 101 -.04 120   .86 109 1.46 110 2.30 109 3.35 108 4.53 109
Nevada 8-5   -.17 105 -.27 116 -.07 84 -.02 100   1.07 94 1.75 98 2.70 98 3.86 97 5.20 93
 
Team W-L   OA Rk OOA Rk DOA Rk SOA Rk   EL Rk VGL Rk GL Rk AAL Rk AL Rk
Hawaii 5-7   -.18 106 -.27 114 -.09 94 -.02 108   1.08 93 1.77 96 2.67 100 3.79 101 5.03 101
Idaho 8-5   -.18 107 -.21 105 -.16 107 -.02 110   1.04 96 1.67 105 2.59 103 3.75 103 5.10 98
Eastern Michigan 0-12   -.19 108 -.14 91 -.25 114 -.01 84   1.04 97 1.69 103 2.67 101 3.84 98 5.15 96
Louisiana Monroe 5-6   -.20 109 -.25 111 -.14 105 -.01 72   1.02 101 1.61 106 2.35 108 3.32 109 4.46 111
Western Michigan 4-7   -.21 110 -.28 119 -.12 98 -.03 116   .68 118 1.29 117 2.09 116 3.12 115 4.33 115
Arkansas State 3-8   -.21 111 -.22 106 -.19 110 -.02 106   .86 110 1.42 112 2.22 113 3.23 113 4.37 114
Ball State 2-9   -.21 112 -.28 117 -.15 106 -.01 92   .72 117 1.33 114 2.17 114 3.20 114 4.40 113
UTEP 4-8   -.22 113 -.27 113 -.17 108 -.03 115   .91 108 1.46 109 2.24 112 3.24 112 4.45 112
Florida Atlantic 5-7   -.23 114 -.15 94 -.30 118 -.03 117   .83 113 1.38 113 2.24 111 3.31 110 4.54 108
Temple 9-3   -.23 115 -.12 85 -.36 120 -.03 119   .92 107 1.46 111 2.27 110 3.29 111 4.48 110
Louisiana Lafayette 5-6   -.24 116 -.28 118 -.18 109 .00 52   .85 112 1.31 115 2.11 115 3.10 116 4.21 117
Kent State 4-7   -.24 117 -.18 99 -.28 117 -.02 104   .58 120 1.12 120 1.91 119 2.90 120 4.08 120
North Texas 2-10   -.25 118 -.18 101 -.34 119 -.02 97   .85 111 1.30 116 2.07 117 3.04 117 4.20 118
Army 4-7   -.26 119 -.22 107 -.28 116 -.02 96   .75 116 1.29 118 2.04 118 2.99 119 4.11 119
Middle Tennessee 10-3   -.32 120 -.40 120 -.21 111 -.02 111   .60 119 1.14 119 1.91 120 3.00 118 4.31 116