EWC Data
2019 Projects
SFP Ratings
Possession Success Rate

FEI Ratings
:: Team Ratings :: 2019 :: 2018 :: 2017 :: 2016 :: 2015 :: 2014 :: 2013 :: 2012 :: 2011 :: 2010 :: 2009 :: 2008 :: 2007

 

FEI ratings (FEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Ratings this week are primarily (86 percent) based on weighted five-year FEI ratings. OFEI Offense ratings (OFEI) and Projected DFEI Defense ratings (DFEI) represent per-possession advantages projected for each unit. Projected losses (PL) represent the average number of losses expected based on individual game win likelihoods in regular season games. Projected season outcome distributions are also provided, represented as the percent chance of losing a given number of regular season games (0L is zero losses, 1L is one loss, etc).

Ratings and supporting data are calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games.

 

2019 FEI Ratings (through Week 1)
:: W6 :: W5 :: W4 :: W3 :: W2 :: W1 :: Preseason

 

Rk Team Rec FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
1 Alabama 1-0 1.35   1.53 2 1.15 2   .8   43 40 13 3 1 - - - - - - - -
2 Clemson 1-0 1.10   .97 5 1.19 1   .7   46 37 14 3 - - - - - - - - -
3 Georgia 1-0 .91   1.11 3 .69 9   1.9   11 30 33 18 7 1 - - - - - - -
4 Oklahoma 1-0 .77   1.87 1 -.29 87   1.8   13 30 28 20 8 1 - - - - - - -
5 Ohio State 1-0 .77   1.11 4 .44 19   2.4   6 22 28 26 12 5 1 - - - - - -
6 LSU 1-0 .75   .55 14 .82 5   3.3   1 7 20 29 22 14 6 1 - - - - -
7 Mississippi State 1-0 .62   .47 23 .84 3   3.4   1 6 20 30 21 16 5 1 - - - - -
8 Auburn 1-0 .56   .50 17 .64 13   4.0   - 2 10 21 30 23 11 3 - - - - -
9 Michigan 1-0 .56   .44 25 .68 11   3.8   1 5 15 24 25 18 9 3 - - - - -
10 Wisconsin 1-0 .53   .36 32 .62 14   3.3   1 9 21 27 24 12 5 1 - - - - -
11 Notre Dame 1-0 .52   .58 11 .42 20   3.1   2 8 23 31 23 8 4 1 - - - - -
12 Appalachian State 0-0 .50   .27 38 .68 10   1.8   11 32 33 16 6 2 - - - - - - -
13 Iowa 1-0 .46   .20 49 .70 8   3.6   1 4 16 26 27 15 7 3 1 - - - -
14 Florida 1-0 .45   .22 43 .60 15   4.1   - 2 10 21 28 23 11 4 1 - - - -
15 Washington 0-0 .45   .34 34 .73 6   3.0   2 12 23 27 21 11 3 1 - - - - -
 
Rk Team Rec FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
16 Boise State 1-0 .43   .57 12 .34 24   1.9   11 30 33 18 6 2 - - - - - - -
17 Penn State 0-0 .41   .25 40 .65 12   4.0   - 4 9 22 28 20 11 4 2 - - - -
18 Utah 1-0 .40   .03 61 .60 16   3.4   1 8 19 28 24 14 5 1 - - - - -
19 Missouri 0-1 .39   .47 22 .31 26   4.8   - - 4 15 25 27 17 8 3 1 - - -
20 Central Florida 0-0 .36   .61 9 .14 41   3.1   2 9 23 27 22 11 5 1 - - - - -
21 Washington State 1-0 .35   .88 6 -.10 67   3.9   - 5 12 24 27 19 9 3 1 - - - -
22 Texas A&M 1-0 .31   .50 16 .14 40   5.6   - - 1 4 15 27 27 19 6 1 - - -
23 Michigan State 1-0 .31   -.25 101 .82 4   4.8   - 1 5 14 22 27 18 8 4 1 - - -
24 Memphis 1-0 .29   .59 10 -.14 72   3.0   3 11 24 29 20 9 3 1 - - - - -
25 West Virginia 0-0 .28   .49 18 .10 45   4.8   - 1 5 13 25 23 17 11 4 1 - - -
26 Army 1-0 .27   .57 13 .02 48   2.5   4 16 30 27 16 6 1 - - - - - -
27 Oregon 0-1 .27   .45 24 .06 47   4.9   - 1 4 11 22 27 21 10 4 - - - -
28 Miami 0-1 .26   -.18 92 .71 7   4.4   - 1 7 19 27 23 16 6 1 - - - -
29 Cincinnati 1-0 .26   .18 52 .31 27   4.1   - 2 11 20 28 23 11 4 1 - - - -
30 Florida State 0-1 .25   .01 63 .33 25   5.6   - - 1 5 16 27 23 19 7 2 - - -
 
Rk Team Rec FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
31 Utah State 0-1 .24   .32 35 .29 29   4.6   - 1 7 18 25 24 18 5 2 - - - -
32 Oklahoma State 1-0 .23   .80 7 -.30 90   4.3   - 3 8 20 24 21 16 7 1 - - - -
33 Stanford 1-0 .23   .37 30 .19 36   4.8   - 2 4 15 24 25 16 10 3 1 - - -
34 North Carolina State 1-0 .22   .49 19 .02 50   4.2   - 3 10 22 25 21 14 5 - - - - -
35 Minnesota 0-0 .20   -.12 84 .39 21   4.9   - 1 5 15 22 23 20 10 3 1 - - -
36 Baylor 0-0 .18   .62 8 -.31 91   4.5   - 2 6 17 23 27 16 7 2 - - - -
37 Northwestern 0-1 .17   -.24 99 .59 17   5.8   - - 1 3 12 22 27 21 10 3 1 - -
38 Indiana 1-0 .17   .22 44 -.02 55   4.8   - 1 5 12 23 27 21 8 2 1 - - -
39 Tennessee 0-1 .16   .03 60 .08 46   7.0   - - - 1 3 11 22 30 20 10 3 - -
40 Arizona State 1-0 .15   .38 29 -.12 69   4.7   - 1 5 15 22 26 18 9 3 1 - - -
41 South Carolina 0-1 .13   .26 39 -.04 59   7.6   - - - - 1 5 16 26 25 19 7 1 -
42 TCU 0-0 .13   -.20 95 .52 18   5.2   - - 3 10 19 24 24 13 6 1 - - -
43 Texas 1-0 .12   .16 53 .20 35   5.3   - - 2 8 18 25 23 14 8 2 - - -
44 Ohio 0-0 .11   .54 15 -.21 81   3.4   2 7 20 26 23 14 6 2 - - - - -
45 USC 1-0 .11   .12 56 .11 43   5.9   - - 1 6 14 21 22 20 11 4 1 - -
 
Rk Team Rec FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
46 Kansas State 0-0 .11   .19 50 -.09 64   5.7   - - 2 5 15 24 25 18 7 3 1 - -
47 Temple 0-0 .11   -.05 72 .29 28   4.2   - 4 12 20 23 23 12 5 1 - - - -
48 Iowa State 0-0 .11   .14 54 .11 44   5.5   - - 2 7 17 24 24 17 6 2 1 - -
49 Virginia 1-0 .10   -.17 91 .39 22   4.1   - 3 10 20 25 23 13 5 1 - - - -
50 Western Michigan 0-0 .10   .38 28 -.35 95   4.2   - 2 10 21 26 23 13 4 1 - - - -
51 Georgia Southern 0-1 .09   .19 51 -.13 70   4.5   - 1 5 18 27 26 16 6 1 - - - -
52 Syracuse 1-0 .08   -.02 67 .16 39   5.1   - 1 3 10 19 26 22 13 5 1 - - -
53 Virginia Tech 0-1 .08   .03 59 -.04 58   5.3   - - 1 6 18 27 29 13 5 1 - - -
54 Mississippi 0-1 .07   .47 21 -.24 82   6.7   - - - - 4 11 28 28 20 8 1 - -
55 Southern Mississippi 0-0 .07   -.36 109 .27 32   4.9   - - 4 12 23 29 19 9 4 - - - -
56 UCLA 0-1 .07   .20 48 -.15 76   6.9   - - - 1 4 13 23 26 17 11 4 1 -
57 Pittsburgh 0-1 .06   .23 42 -.14 71   6.3   - - 1 2 7 18 26 23 15 6 2 - -
58 Kentucky 1-0 .05   .00 64 .18 37   5.3   - 1 2 7 18 28 25 14 4 1 - - -
59 San Diego State 0-0 .05   -.34 107 .37 23   4.1   1 4 11 23 22 23 11 4 1 - - - -
60 Houston 0-1 .04   .42 27 -.28 86   5.2   - - 1 10 21 25 24 13 5 1 - - -
 
Rk Team Rec FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
61 Arizona 0-1 .02   .29 36 -.33 94   6.6   - - 1 2 5 15 23 26 19 8 1 - -
62 BYU 0-1 .01   -.02 66 .00 53   6.2   - - - 2 9 17 26 25 14 6 1 - -
63 Nebraska 1-0 .00   .21 45 -.17 79   6.1   - - 1 4 10 20 26 21 13 4 1 - -
64 Troy 0-0 -.01   -.23 97 .16 38   4.5   - 1 6 19 24 21 19 7 3 - - - -
65 Texas Tech 0-0 -.01   .43 26 -.46 103   5.9   - - 1 5 12 23 23 21 11 3 1 - -
66 Air Force 0-0 -.01   .36 31 -.39 98   4.8   - 1 7 13 23 26 18 10 2 - - - -
67 Fresno State 0-1 -.02   -.03 70 .24 33   4.7   - 1 4 16 24 25 18 8 3 1 - - -
68 Louisiana Tech 0-1 -.02   -.09 78 -.02 56   4.2   - 1 9 20 26 24 14 5 1 - - - -
69 California 0-0 -.04   -.30 104 .21 34   6.5   - - - 3 6 17 25 25 15 8 1 - -
70 Colorado 1-0 -.04   -.06 76 .00 52   6.6   - - - 2 5 15 24 25 17 9 3 - -
71 Boston College 1-0 -.05   -.29 103 .28 30   5.5   - - 2 6 17 29 23 16 6 1 - - -
72 Florida International 0-1 -.05   .25 41 -.53 109   5.0   - - 2 12 25 27 21 10 3 - - - -
73 Georgia Tech 0-1 -.05   .47 20 -.47 105   6.7   - - - 1 6 13 25 25 20 8 2 - -
74 Duke 0-1 -.05   -.03 68 -.01 54   6.5   - - - 2 7 19 23 23 17 7 2 - -
75 Northern Illinois 0-0 -.06   -.44 112 .28 31   5.3   - - 2 9 20 23 21 16 6 2 1 - -
 
Rk Team Rec FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
76 Arkansas State 0-1 -.06   -.05 73 .02 51   5.0   - - 2 12 24 28 19 10 4 1 - - -
77 Western Kentucky 0-0 -.07   -.03 71 -.18 80   5.0   - 1 3 13 22 25 20 12 3 1 - - -
78 Maryland 0-0 -.08   -.06 75 -.07 62   6.9   - - - 1 3 12 22 25 22 11 3 1 -
79 Vanderbilt 0-1 -.08   .03 62 -.09 65   7.0   - - - 1 3 12 20 26 24 11 3 - -
80 North Carolina 1-0 -.09   .03 58 -.30 88   6.5   - - - 2 8 16 23 26 16 8 1 - -
81 Wake Forest 1-0 -.09   -.10 80 -.10 66   5.5   - - 1 7 17 25 25 17 7 1 - - -
82 Purdue 0-1 -.10   .13 55 -.27 84   7.5   - - - - 2 7 16 24 24 17 8 2 -
83 Toledo 0-1 -.10   .35 33 -.48 106   4.8   - 1 4 15 22 25 21 9 2 1 - - -
84 Arkansas 0-0 -.11   -.09 79 -.16 77   7.1   - - - - 2 9 22 28 25 11 3 - -
85 Nevada 1-0 -.12   -.25 100 -.04 60   4.5   - 2 6 16 24 27 17 6 2 - - - -
86 Marshall 0-0 -.13   -.29 102 .12 42   5.2   - 1 3 11 19 26 22 14 3 1 - - -
87 South Florida 0-1 -.13   -.14 86 -.15 74   6.2   - - - 2 10 22 25 21 15 4 1 - -
88 Miami (OH) 0-1 -.18   -.14 88 -.16 78   6.2   - - - 1 9 19 29 23 14 4 1 - -
89 Middle Tennessee 0-1 -.20   -.11 83 -.15 73   5.8   - - 1 5 12 24 27 17 10 4 - - -
90 Florida Atlantic 0-1 -.21   -.01 65 -.33 93   5.7   - - 1 6 13 22 26 17 10 4 1 - -
 
Rk Team Rec FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
91 UAB 0-0 -.21   -.10 81 -.06 61   4.3   - 2 8 20 26 22 15 6 1 - - - -
92 Tulsa 0-1 -.22   -.14 87 -.31 92   7.1   - - - 1 4 9 20 24 25 12 4 1 -
93 North Texas 0-0 -.23   -.16 90 -.30 89   5.2   - - 4 10 19 25 23 12 6 1 - - -
94 Buffalo 0-0 -.24   .21 46 -.46 102   5.2   - - 4 10 18 23 24 14 6 1 - - -
95 SMU 1-0 -.25   -.21 96 -.35 96   6.1   - - 1 3 11 21 26 20 14 3 1 - -
96 Tulane 1-0 -.27   -.42 111 -.04 57   6.2   - - 1 3 9 18 28 25 14 2 - - -
97 Louisville 0-1 -.28   -.12 85 -.54 110   8.3   - - - - - 2 8 17 29 27 15 2 -
98 Louisiana Lafayette 0-1 -.30   .27 37 -.89 124   6.4   - - - 2 9 18 26 24 14 6 1 - -
99 Hawaii 1-0 -.32   -.05 74 -.78 117   6.7   - - - 1 6 13 24 25 20 8 3 - -
100 Illinois 1-0 -.33   -.18 93 -.63 111   7.3   - - - - 2 6 19 25 27 16 4 1 -
101 Wyoming 1-0 -.33   -.56 117 .02 49   5.7   - - 1 5 13 27 26 18 8 2 - - -
102 Navy 0-0 -.38   .20 47 -.82 119   6.6   - - - 2 6 15 26 23 18 8 2 - -
103 Louisiana Monroe 0-0 -.40   -.14 89 -.69 113   6.9   - - - 2 4 11 19 28 22 10 4 - -
104 Eastern Michigan 1-0 -.41   -.51 115 -.15 75   5.6   - - 1 7 15 24 24 19 8 2 - - -
105 UNLV 0-0 -.43   -.07 77 -.76 116   7.2   - - - 1 2 11 20 27 22 12 4 1 -
 
Rk Team Rec FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
106 East Carolina 0-1 -.44   -.35 108 -.50 107   6.5   - - 1 2 5 14 27 27 18 5 1 - -
107 Liberty 0-1 -.45   -.46 113 -.45 101   5.8   - - - 4 11 24 29 19 10 3 - - -
108 Ball State 0-1 -.46   -.33 106 -.66 112   7.5   - - - - 2 6 15 23 27 19 7 1 -
109 Texas State 0-1 -.47   -.70 123 -.27 85   6.9   - - - - 4 11 22 26 24 10 2 1 -
110 Central Michigan 0-0 -.50   -.90 128 -.08 63   7.0   - - - 1 3 12 21 28 22 11 2 - -
111 Rutgers 1-0 -.50   -.71 124 -.25 83   8.6   - - - - - 1 5 15 22 33 20 4 -
112 Charlotte 0-0 -.50   -.69 121 -.42 99   7.2   - - - 1 2 10 18 29 23 13 3 1 -
113 Colorado State 0-1 -.52   -.03 69 -.83 120   7.9   - - - - 1 4 12 22 28 22 10 1 -
114 Coastal Carolina 0-1 -.55   -.11 82 -1.06 128   7.5   - - - - 1 7 16 27 25 16 7 1 -
115 Oregon State 0-1 -.55   .06 57 -1.27 129   9.4   - - - - - - 1 5 17 29 34 14 -
116 Georgia State 1-0 -.56   -.19 94 -.96 126   7.0   - - - 1 3 8 21 31 23 10 3 - -
117 Kent State 0-1 -.56   -.81 126 -.47 104   8.1   - - - - - 2 9 20 29 24 14 2 -
118 Akron 0-1 -.57   -.98 129 -.12 68   7.8   - - - - 1 5 11 23 27 19 11 3 -
119 Kansas 0-0 -.61   -.63 120 -.44 100   8.8   - - - - - 1 3 11 21 31 25 8 -
120 Old Dominion 0-0 -.62   -.23 98 -.92 125   7.5   - - - - 2 6 15 25 26 18 6 2 -
 
Rk Team Rec FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
121 Bowling Green 0-0 -.63   -.32 105 -.87 123   8.0   - - - - - 3 9 23 30 24 9 2 -
122 San Jose State 0-0 -.63   -.76 125 -.52 108   8.2   - - - - 1 3 8 16 26 27 15 4 -
123 New Mexico 0-0 -.69   -.55 116 -.72 115   7.9   - - - - 1 3 12 21 29 24 9 1 -
124 Rice 0-1 -.70   -.70 122 -.82 118   9.2   - - - - - 1 3 8 21 26 27 12 2
125 UTSA 0-0 -.73   -1.05 130 -.37 97   8.2   - - - - - 2 6 17 30 28 13 4 -
126 New Mexico State 0-1 -.77   -.61 119 -.84 121   8.4   - - - - - 1 7 16 30 28 15 3 -
127 South Alabama 0-1 -.80   -.58 118 -.85 122   8.9   - - - - - 1 3 11 21 30 26 8 -
128 Massachusetts 0-1 -.82   -.38 110 -1.01 127   8.0   - - - - 1 3 9 21 31 26 8 1 -
129 UTEP 0-0 -.90   -.84 127 -.71 114   8.2   - - - - - 2 8 19 28 26 15 2 -
130 Connecticut 0-0 -1.04   -.49 114 -1.61 130   9.6   - - - - - - - 3 12 30 35 20 -