EWC Data
2019 Projects
SFP Ratings
Possession Success Rate

FEI Ratings
:: Team Ratings :: 2019 :: 2018 :: 2017 :: 2016 :: 2015 :: 2014 :: 2013 :: 2012 :: 2011 :: 2010 :: 2009 :: 2008 :: 2007

 

Projected FEI ratings (PFEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Projections are primarily based on weighted five-year FEI ratings. Projected OFEI Offense ratings (POFEI) and Projected DFEI Defense ratings (PDFEI) represent per-possession advantages projected for each unit. Projected losses (PL) represent the average number of losses expected based on individual game win likelihoods in regular season games. Projected season outcome distributions are also provided, represented as the percent chance of losing a given number of regular season games (0L is zero losses, 1L is one loss, etc).

Ratings and supporting data are calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games.

 

2019 Projected FEI Ratings (preseason)
:: W3 :: W2 :: W1 :: Preseason

 

Rk Team PFEI   POFEI Rk PDFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
1 Alabama 1.33   1.52 2 1.15 2   1.0   36 41 18 4 1 - - - - - - - -
2 Clemson 1.07   .95 5 1.17 1   1.0   34 41 20 4 1 - - - - - - - -
3 Georgia .92   1.14 3 .70 7   2.2   9 24 32 20 11 3 1 - - - - - -
4 Ohio State .77   1.12 4 .45 19   2.6   5 17 27 28 15 6 2 - - - - - -
5 Oklahoma .76   1.83 1 -.28 87   2.1   9 27 30 20 10 3 1 - - - - - -
6 LSU .73   .53 16 .80 5   3.5   - 7 17 26 27 14 8 1 - - - - -
7 Mississippi State .63   .47 23 .86 3   3.7   1 5 15 26 26 16 8 2 1 - - - -
8 Auburn .56   .51 17 .63 13   4.5   - 1 9 16 24 27 14 7 2 - - - -
9 Michigan .54   .42 26 .66 11   4.1   1 3 12 19 26 20 11 6 2 - - - -
10 Notre Dame .51   .58 11 .42 20   3.4   1 8 19 27 22 14 7 2 - - - - -
11 Appalachian State .50   .27 39 .68 10   1.8   10 31 30 20 6 2 1 - - - - - -
12 Wisconsin .49   .34 33 .58 15   3.8   1 4 12 27 24 19 9 3 1 - - - -
13 Florida .47   .23 44 .63 14   4.3   - 2 7 18 27 23 15 7 1 - - - -
14 Washington .45   .34 34 .73 6   3.4   3 9 19 25 24 13 6 1 - - - - -
15 Iowa .44   .17 52 .70 9   3.9   - 6 15 23 23 19 10 3 1 - - - -
 
Rk Team PFEI   POFEI Rk PDFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
16 Boise State .41   .56 13 .35 25   2.5   6 20 28 26 14 5 1 - - - - - -
17 Penn State .41   .25 41 .65 12   4.1   - 4 10 21 26 21 11 5 2 - - - -
18 Utah .41   .03 60 .58 16   3.6   1 6 17 24 25 17 7 3 - - - - -
19 Missouri .39   .46 24 .36 24   4.2   - 3 10 21 25 21 12 6 2 - - - -
20 Central Florida .36   .61 9 .14 41   3.1   2 10 24 30 19 10 4 1 - - - - -
21 Washington State .33   .81 6 -.09 66   4.0   1 4 12 22 27 20 9 4 1 - - - -
22 Texas A&M .31   .51 19 .14 40   5.9   - - 1 3 11 23 29 21 10 2 - - -
23 Michigan State .30   -.24 98 .82 4   5.1   - 1 5 9 20 25 22 11 6 1 - - -
24 Memphis .29   .60 10 -.19 79   3.1   2 10 20 28 22 12 5 1 - - - - -
25 West Virginia .28   .49 20 .10 46   4.8   - 1 6 14 24 24 18 9 3 1 - - -
26 Cincinnati .27   .19 51 .30 28   4.4   - 2 8 17 26 24 14 6 2 1 - - -
27 Oregon .26   .47 22 .04 49   4.7   - 2 5 15 23 25 17 9 3 1 - - -
28 Utah State .25   .32 36 .32 27   3.9   - 3 12 23 28 19 11 3 1 - - - -
29 Florida State .25   -.01 68 .33 26   4.9   - 1 5 13 22 24 18 12 4 1 - - -
30 Army .25   .58 12 -.02 57   2.6   4 16 28 26 18 6 2 - - - - - -
 
Rk Team PFEI   POFEI Rk PDFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
31 Miami .24   -.20 92 .70 8   4.2   1 3 9 19 26 23 13 4 2 - - - -
32 Stanford .23   .39 29 .17 36   5.5   - 1 3 8 16 24 21 16 7 3 1 - -
33 Oklahoma State .22   .72 7 -.28 86   4.5   - 2 8 18 23 23 16 7 3 - - - -
34 Tennessee .20   .08 57 .13 42   5.8   - - 1 4 13 22 25 21 10 3 1 - -
35 Minnesota .20   -.12 83 .39 21   4.7   - 1 5 16 22 23 19 10 3 1 - - -
36 North Carolina State .19   .47 21 -.01 54   4.5   - 2 7 16 24 27 14 7 3 - - - -
37 Baylor .18   .62 8 -.31 91   4.5   - 1 6 19 24 27 16 6 1 - - - -
38 Northwestern .18   -.21 94 .57 17   5.5   - 1 2 8 14 26 22 17 7 2 1 - -
39 South Carolina .16   .32 35 -.02 58   6.9   - - - 1 5 11 21 26 22 11 3 - -
40 Indiana .15   .21 46 -.02 56   4.8   - 1 4 13 24 27 19 10 2 - - - -
41 Arizona State .13   .40 28 -.16 75   5.0   - 1 4 14 23 24 20 10 3 1 - - -
42 TCU .13   -.20 93 .52 18   5.2   - 1 3 12 18 23 23 14 5 1 - - -
43 Georgia Southern .13   .19 49 -.09 67   4.0   - 3 10 22 27 24 9 4 1 - - - -
44 USC .12   .12 55 .12 43   6.3   - - 1 3 10 15 21 24 15 8 2 1 -
45 Ohio .11   .54 14 -.21 81   3.6   1 6 19 26 24 16 6 2 - - - - -
 
Rk Team PFEI   POFEI Rk PDFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
46 Kansas State .11   .19 50 -.09 65   5.5   - - 2 9 16 24 23 17 7 2 - - -
47 Temple .11   -.05 72 .29 29   4.3   - 2 9 19 26 26 12 4 2 - - - -
48 Iowa State .11   .14 53 .11 45   5.5   - - 2 7 16 23 24 16 9 3 - - -
49 Western Michigan .10   .38 30 -.35 94   3.9   1 3 14 24 26 18 9 4 1 - - - -
50 Texas .10   .12 56 .21 35   6.1   - - 1 5 11 19 24 21 12 5 2 - -
51 Virginia Tech .09   .03 59 -.01 55   4.5   - 2 7 15 24 24 18 7 2 1 - - -
52 Mississippi .08   .53 15 -.26 83   6.5   - - - 2 8 17 23 25 16 8 1 - -
53 Pittsburgh .08   .26 40 -.13 71   5.6   - - 2 8 15 23 22 16 8 5 1 - -
54 Virginia .08   -.18 91 .38 22   4.9   - 1 5 14 21 23 20 11 4 1 - - -
55 Syracuse .08   -.01 67 .14 39   5.3   - 1 3 8 19 23 23 13 7 2 1 - -
56 UCLA .08   .20 47 -.14 73   6.4   - - 1 3 8 18 22 23 15 8 2 - -
57 Southern Mississippi .07   -.36 109 .27 32   4.5   - 1 6 17 28 22 18 6 2 - - - -
58 San Diego State .05   -.34 107 .37 23   4.0   1 4 14 21 23 21 11 4 1 - - - -
59 BYU .04   .01 63 .03 51   5.5   - - 2 6 16 23 24 19 8 2 - - -
60 Kentucky .04   .00 64 .17 37   6.1   - - 1 4 10 21 25 21 13 4 1 - -
 
Rk Team PFEI   POFEI Rk PDFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
61 Houston .04   .40 27 -.26 84   5.2   - - 3 10 20 25 22 12 7 1 - - -
62 Arizona .03   .29 37 -.31 90   5.7   - 1 2 7 13 22 24 19 9 2 1 - -
63 Nebraska .01   .24 43 -.20 80   6.3   - - 1 4 9 19 22 21 15 7 1 1 -
64 Troy -.01   -.23 96 .16 38   4.5   - 1 8 15 25 24 17 8 2 - - - -
65 Texas Tech -.01   .43 25 -.46 103   5.8   - - 1 5 12 24 25 18 12 3 - - -
66 Air Force -.01   .36 32 -.39 98   4.6   - 1 6 16 24 25 17 9 2 - - - -
67 Louisiana Tech -.02   -.12 82 .00 53   3.7   1 6 14 24 24 18 8 4 1 - - - -
68 Fresno State -.03   -.02 69 .23 33   4.7   - 1 7 16 23 26 16 9 2 - - - -
69 Florida International -.03   .25 42 -.50 107   4.0   - 3 13 20 26 21 12 4 1 - - - -
70 Duke -.04   .00 65 .02 52   6.4   - - - 2 7 16 25 24 18 6 2 - -
71 Georgia Tech -.04   .51 18 -.47 104   6.8   - - - 1 5 14 22 25 21 8 3 1 -
72 Arkansas State -.04   -.05 73 .04 48   4.3   - 1 8 20 30 20 13 6 2 - - - -
73 California -.04   -.30 103 .21 34   6.4   - - 1 3 8 17 23 25 16 6 1 - -
74 Northern Illinois -.06   -.44 111 .28 30   5.0   - 1 3 14 21 25 20 11 4 1 - - -
75 Colorado -.06   -.12 85 .05 47   7.1   - - - 2 6 11 17 23 20 13 7 1 -
 
Rk Team PFEI   POFEI Rk PDFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
76 Western Kentucky -.07   -.03 70 -.18 77   4.9   - 1 7 14 22 23 19 9 4 1 - - -
77 Boston College -.07   -.33 106 .27 31   6.2   - - - 4 11 19 25 24 12 4 1 - -
78 Maryland -.08   -.06 74 -.07 62   6.8   - - - 1 4 14 22 24 20 11 3 1 -
79 Toledo -.08   .37 31 -.46 102   4.4   - 3 9 19 23 23 14 7 2 - - - -
80 Vanderbilt -.09   .02 61 -.09 64   7.0   - - - 1 4 9 20 29 21 12 4 - -
81 North Carolina -.09   .05 58 -.32 92   7.0   - - - 1 4 11 19 28 22 10 4 1 -
82 Arkansas -.11   -.09 77 -.16 76   7.2   - - - - 2 9 20 27 25 13 3 1 -
83 South Florida -.12   -.11 80 -.13 72   5.9   - - 1 4 12 20 26 21 11 4 1 - -
84 Purdue -.12   .13 54 -.28 85   7.3   - - - 1 3 10 16 25 23 14 6 2 -
85 Wake Forest -.12   -.16 90 -.10 69   6.4   - - - 2 9 17 25 23 15 7 2 - -
86 Marshall -.13   -.29 102 .12 44   5.4   - - 3 6 18 24 24 15 8 2 - - -
87 Nevada -.13   -.27 101 -.03 59   4.9   - 1 5 13 25 25 17 10 3 1 - - -
88 Miami (OH) -.15   -.15 88 -.11 70   5.9   - - 1 4 13 23 25 20 11 3 - - -
89 Middle Tennessee -.21   -.10 79 -.15 74   5.8   - - 1 5 12 22 26 19 10 4 1 - -
90 UAB -.21   -.10 78 -.06 61   4.6   - 2 7 13 27 24 15 9 2 1 - - -
 
Rk Team PFEI   POFEI Rk PDFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
91 Florida Atlantic -.22   -.01 66 -.34 93   5.8   - - 1 5 12 21 26 21 11 3 - - -
92 North Texas -.23   -.16 89 -.30 89   5.1   - - 4 12 20 24 22 11 5 2 - - -
93 Tulsa -.24   -.13 86 -.36 96   6.9   - - - 1 4 13 21 26 21 10 3 1 -
94 Buffalo -.24   .21 45 -.46 101   5.4   - - 3 7 15 24 25 16 8 2 - - -
95 SMU -.25   -.24 99 -.35 95   6.7   - - - 2 6 16 22 24 19 7 3 1 -
96 Louisville -.28   -.12 81 -.58 110   7.9   - - - - 1 5 11 20 27 23 10 3 -
97 Louisiana Lafayette -.29   .27 38 -.87 122   6.3   - - - 3 8 20 25 23 14 6 1 - -
98 Tulane -.31   -.50 114 -.04 60   7.0   - - - 1 5 12 19 25 24 11 3 - -
99 Hawaii -.32   -.07 75 -.78 117   7.2   - - - 1 3 10 19 24 23 13 6 1 -
100 Wyoming -.35   -.60 118 .03 50   6.6   - - - 1 6 14 24 27 18 8 2 - -
101 Illinois -.37   -.24 100 -.67 111   7.7   - - - - 1 6 13 23 27 20 8 2 -
102 Navy -.38   .20 48 -.82 120   6.8   - - - 2 4 12 23 27 20 9 3 - -
103 Louisiana Monroe -.40   -.14 87 -.69 113   6.8   - - - 1 5 12 24 26 19 10 2 1 -
104 UNLV -.43   -.07 76 -.76 116   7.0   - - - 1 3 12 21 26 21 13 3 - -
105 East Carolina -.43   -.32 105 -.51 108   6.2   - - - 3 9 19 28 25 14 2 - - -
 
Rk Team PFEI   POFEI Rk PDFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
106 Eastern Michigan -.45   -.55 116 -.18 78   6.3   - - 1 4 8 19 26 21 14 6 1 - -
107 Liberty -.45   -.45 112 -.47 105   5.3   - - 3 9 19 26 23 14 5 1 - - -
108 Ball State -.46   -.36 108 -.67 112   7.2   - - - 1 2 8 18 26 23 16 5 1 -
109 Texas State -.49   -.71 122 -.29 88   6.8   - - - 2 6 13 24 23 19 10 3 - -
110 Central Michigan -.50   -.90 128 -.08 63   6.9   - - - 1 5 14 22 26 18 11 3 - -
111 Charlotte -.50   -.69 121 -.42 99   7.0   - - - 1 3 12 21 26 22 11 4 - -
112 Colorado State -.51   -.04 71 -.79 118   7.6   - - - 1 2 6 13 23 27 19 8 1 -
113 Rutgers -.52   -.75 124 -.25 82   9.0   - - - - - 1 3 10 21 27 24 12 2
114 Oregon State -.54   .01 62 -1.21 129   8.9   - - - - - 1 3 9 21 32 25 9 -
115 Coastal Carolina -.54   -.12 84 -1.06 128   6.8   - - - 1 5 13 22 27 21 10 1 - -
116 Kent State -.54   -.79 126 -.48 106   7.6   - - - - 1 6 15 25 27 18 7 1 -
117 Akron -.55   -.97 129 -.09 68   7.3   - - - 1 3 8 17 23 25 14 8 1 -
118 Georgia State -.58   -.22 95 -.99 127   7.8   - - - - 2 4 12 24 24 22 10 2 -
119 Kansas -.61   -.63 120 -.44 100   8.9   - - - - - - 4 11 22 30 25 8 -
120 Old Dominion -.62   -.23 97 -.92 125   7.6   - - - - 2 5 15 23 27 19 8 1 -
 
Rk Team PFEI   POFEI Rk PDFEI Rk   PL   0L 1L 2L 3L 4L 5L 6L 7L 8L 9L 10L 11L 12L
121 Bowling Green -.63   -.32 104 -.87 123   8.0   - - - - 1 4 10 20 28 22 13 2 -
122 San Jose State -.63   -.76 125 -.52 109   8.1   - - - - 1 3 9 19 26 25 14 3 -
123 New Mexico -.69   -.55 115 -.72 115   7.9   - - - - 1 4 12 22 27 22 10 2 -
124 Rice -.71   -.71 123 -.84 121   8.9   - - - - - 1 4 12 20 28 23 11 1
125 UTSA -.73   -1.05 130 -.37 97   8.1   - - - - - 3 10 20 27 25 13 2 -
126 New Mexico State -.75   -.61 119 -.81 119   8.2   - - - - - 2 8 19 29 25 14 3 -
127 Massachusetts -.82   -.39 110 -.98 126   8.0   - - - - 1 3 9 20 29 24 11 3 -
128 South Alabama -.82   -.58 117 -.88 124   8.8   - - - - - 1 3 10 23 31 24 8 -
129 UTEP -.90   -.84 127 -.71 114   8.4   - - - - - 1 6 17 26 29 17 4 -
130 Connecticut -1.04   -.49 113 -1.61 130   9.4   - - - - - - 1 4 14 27 38 16 -