SFP Ratings

FEI Ratings
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FEI ratings (FEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Offense ratings (OFEI) and defense ratings (DFEI) are opponent-adjusted drive efficiency data representing the per-drive scoring advantage a team unit would be expected to have against an average opponent unit. Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against each team's regular season schedule (ELS), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the regular season schedule (GLS), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the regular season schedule (ALS). Projected wins (PW) are the sum of individual game win likelihoods for all regular season games, including games against FCS opponents. The percent chance of an undefeated regular season (U), the chance of winning ten or more regular season games (10+), and the chance of winning six or more regular season games (6+) are also indicated.

 

2022 PFEI Ratings
:: Overall :: Record Splits :: Offense :: Defense :: Special Teams :: Preseason Projections

 

Projected Opponent-Adjusted Efficiency

 

Projected Strength of Schedule

 

Projected Wins

Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   PW U 10+ 6+
1 Georgia 1.20   1.19 3 1.27 1   1.05 44 3.14 52 6.18 49   11.1 .384 .947 1.000
2 Alabama 1.14   1.36 2 1.03 3   1.40 28 3.67 31 6.78 26   10.6 .227 .858 1.000
3 Ohio State 1.09   1.39 1 .50 18   1.58 18 3.97 17 6.96 17   10.3 .146 .787 1.000
4 Michigan .85   .90 5 .65 11   1.23 38 3.27 46 6.08 52   10.0 .074 .690 1.000
5 Notre Dame .78   .77 8 .79 8   .97 56 3.37 44 6.58 37   9.6 .043 .540 .998
6 Clemson .77   .37 44 1.11 2   .81 60 3.02 56 6.07 53   10.0 .087 .666 1.000
7 Wisconsin .74   .48 31 1.03 4   1.35 30 3.50 38 6.41 43   9.3 .031 .468 .998
8 Oklahoma .72   1.18 4 .00 50   1.26 36 3.52 37 6.67 33   9.2 .031 .434 .996
9 Oklahoma State .69   .65 16 .81 7   1.27 33 3.65 34 6.69 32   8.9 .023 .361 .992
10 Utah .65   .75 10 .60 14   .70 65 2.90 57 6.04 54   9.5 .057 .532 .997
11 Auburn .63   .63 17 .72 9   2.15 2 4.71 1 7.67 2   7.6 .002 .098 .930
12 Penn State .62   .38 43 .82 6   1.56 20 3.80 25 6.85 23   8.5 .008 .242 .987
13 Iowa State .59   .73 11 .50 16   1.39 29 3.72 28 6.74 28   8.4 .009 .229 .978
14 Texas A&M .57   .37 45 .72 10   1.78 8 4.27 6 7.19 9   7.7 .003 .121 .927
15 LSU .52   .69 15 .43 22   1.79 6 4.23 8 7.23 5   7.5 .002 .089 .915
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   PW U 10+ 6+
16 Cincinnati .50   .42 37 .64 12   .31 111 1.91 90 4.64 88   9.8 .083 .625 .999
17 Baylor .50   .40 42 .61 13   1.33 31 3.61 35 6.52 38   8.1 .005 .166 .963
18 Iowa .50   -.10 79 .97 5   1.79 5 4.25 7 7.11 13   7.4 .001 .078 .908
19 Ole Miss .45   .81 6 .18 43   1.62 17 3.81 24 6.69 31   7.6 .001 .082 .924
20 Kansas State .44   .57 23 .42 23   1.26 35 3.71 29 6.70 30   7.7 .003 .112 .926
21 Kentucky .44   .61 20 .28 33   1.21 39 3.39 42 6.38 45   7.9 .004 .138 .953
22 Florida .44   .41 40 .50 17   1.63 16 3.97 18 6.92 19   7.3 .001 .066 .891
23 Texas .43   .54 27 .22 39   1.78 7 4.29 4 7.38 3   7.0 .001 .044 .856
24 Boise State .41   .26 53 .38 26   .39 100 2.12 82 4.94 79   9.3 .035 .448 .996
25 Oregon .39   .76 9 .22 38   1.25 37 3.45 41 6.43 42   7.7 .002 .107 .929
26 Minnesota .39   .45 35 .38 27   1.17 40 3.23 49 6.00 56   7.9 .003 .139 .956
27 Purdue .37   .47 32 .26 36   1.04 45 3.28 45 6.23 47   7.7 .003 .111 .931
28 Michigan State .36   .27 52 .39 25   1.68 14 4.04 14 6.84 24   7.0 .000 .036 .842
29 Wake Forest .35   .72 12 -.04 53   .68 69 2.66 62 5.70 60   8.2 .007 .191 .962
30 Mississippi State .34   .56 24 .45 20   2.19 1 4.62 2 7.35 4   6.3 - .011 .699
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   PW U 10+ 6+
31 Air Force .34   .80 7 -.07 56   .34 106 2.00 87 4.78 82   9.0 .026 .392 .991
32 Tennessee .32   .61 19 .02 49   1.76 9 3.79 26 6.45 41   7.0 .000 .035 .869
33 Appalachian State .31   .23 54 .39 24   .31 113 1.41 116 3.79 113   9.6 .045 .543 .999
34 Pittsburgh .31   .14 61 .45 21   .32 109 2.40 67 5.48 64   8.3 .008 .218 .962
35 NC State .31   .23 55 .36 28   .68 68 2.81 59 5.65 61   8.0 .004 .145 .945
36 UCF .27   .48 30 .27 34   .29 115 2.00 86 4.71 85   8.8 .018 .319 .986
37 Arizona State .27   .36 47 .26 35   .89 58 3.04 54 6.01 55   7.4 .001 .090 .898
38 UCLA .26   .72 14 -.21 73   .70 67 2.51 65 5.32 66   8.0 .004 .154 .956
39 Nebraska .25   .41 38 .30 29   1.46 25 3.65 33 6.48 39   6.7 .000 .026 .803
40 Washington .24   .07 63 .50 19   .67 71 2.59 63 5.62 62   7.7 .004 .122 .923
41 Arkansas .23   .37 46 .16 45   1.79 4 4.55 3 7.68 1   5.6 - .006 .518
42 Miami .20   .20 57 .29 32   .80 61 2.74 61 5.61 63   7.4 .001 .076 .901
43 BYU .19   .72 13 -.18 70   .98 52 3.21 50 6.19 48   6.8 .001 .039 .809
44 Washington State .19   .29 51 .17 44   .98 53 3.27 47 6.27 46   6.7 .000 .030 .791
45 Army .18   .58 22 -.15 65   .35 104 1.48 110 3.49 125   9.2 .027 .409 .997
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   PW U 10+ 6+
46 Houston .16   .15 59 .19 41   .19 126 1.61 104 4.35 96   8.6 .016 .283 .976
47 Florida State .15   .15 58 .21 40   1.15 41 3.58 36 6.73 29   6.1 .000 .014 .635
48 Fresno State .14   .05 65 .19 42   .26 120 1.61 105 4.06 99   8.6 .009 .261 .984
49 Louisiana .13   .41 39 -.17 68   .18 127 .77 131 3.07 129   9.5 .047 .527 .997
50 Texas Tech .13   .56 25 -.37 89   1.55 21 4.13 10 7.21 7   5.4 - .005 .476
51 Louisville .12   .59 21 -.35 87   1.12 42 3.47 40 6.84 25   5.9 .000 .011 .591
52 West Virginia .10   .05 66 .23 37   1.54 22 4.09 11 7.15 11   5.3 - .003 .446
53 North Carolina .10   .55 26 -.37 90   .98 54 3.09 53 6.15 51   6.3 .000 .020 .708
54 San Diego State .10   -.50 112 .55 15   .70 66 2.19 79 4.87 80   7.6 .002 .094 .923
55 Virginia .10   .62 18 -.39 92   .31 110 2.10 83 5.07 72   7.4 .002 .096 .893
56 South Carolina .07   -.25 92 .30 30   1.68 13 3.83 22 6.63 35   5.7 - .002 .544
57 USC .06   .43 36 -.35 88   1.02 47 3.26 48 6.41 44   6.0 .000 .011 .624
58 SMU .06   .46 33 -.31 82   .47 88 2.35 71 5.26 68   7.0 .001 .054 .836
59 Western Kentucky .05   .41 41 -.26 77   .35 103 1.59 106 4.02 102   9.2 .006 .425 .991
60 TCU .04   .33 49 -.33 85   1.42 26 3.92 20 6.92 21   5.2 - .003 .417
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   PW U 10+ 6+
61 Utah State .03   .07 64 -.05 54   .97 55 2.29 75 4.65 87   7.4 - .059 .921
62 Missouri .03   .30 50 -.38 91   1.57 19 3.67 32 6.47 40   5.6 - .002 .523
63 Marshall .03   -.04 75 .09 47   .59 78 1.68 99 4.00 104   8.0 .003 .141 .961
64 Virginia Tech .03   -.03 74 -.04 52   .43 92 2.31 74 5.34 65   6.8 .001 .037 .790
65 California .02   -.27 93 .30 31   .84 59 2.84 58 5.82 57   6.3 .000 .017 .675
66 Memphis .01   .46 34 -.27 78   .42 94 1.97 89 4.73 84   7.3 .002 .073 .874
67 Liberty -.04   .15 60 -.15 64   .42 95 1.47 111 3.43 127   8.4 .005 .185 .990
68 Oregon State -.04   .50 28 -.70 116   1.00 50 3.38 43 6.61 36   5.1 - .003 .388
69 Coastal Carolina -.05   .49 29 -.67 114   .31 112 1.38 119 4.06 100   7.6 .002 .101 .911
70 Nevada -.05   .02 71 -.18 69   .64 74 2.02 85 4.61 89   7.1 .001 .044 .859
71 UAB -.06   .11 62 -.15 63   .30 114 1.52 109 3.98 106   7.7 .002 .109 .921
72 Boston College -.08   -.16 83 -.01 51   1.02 46 3.03 55 5.72 59   5.8 .000 .005 .575
73 Syracuse -.08   -.05 77 -.09 60   1.28 32 3.72 27 6.63 34   4.8 - .001 .313
74 Stanford -.09   .05 68 -.32 84   1.27 34 3.83 23 7.07 14   4.4 - .000 .225
75 Illinois -.10   -.40 106 .03 48   1.41 27 3.92 19 6.97 16   4.5 - .001 .242
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   PW U 10+ 6+
76 Tulsa -.11   -.21 88 .10 46   .53 85 2.31 73 5.09 71   6.2 .000 .018 .696
77 Toledo -.12   -.12 81 -.09 61   .58 79 1.64 101 3.79 114   7.6 - .085 .927
78 Navy -.13   .04 69 -.20 71   .98 51 3.16 51 6.15 50   5.1 - .002 .387
79 Wyoming -.13   -.33 98 -.08 57   .54 83 2.17 81 4.98 78   6.2 .000 .016 .670
80 Maryland -.14   .22 56 -.48 101   1.70 10 4.04 15 6.92 20   4.4 - - .217
81 Western Michigan -.16   .35 48 -.46 98   .36 102 1.42 114 4.01 103   7.1 .002 .057 .842
82 Indiana -.17   -.24 91 -.06 55   1.69 12 4.19 9 7.14 12   3.9 - .000 .128
83 Florida Atlantic -.18   -.22 89 -.09 59   .35 105 1.40 118 3.73 116   7.3 .001 .060 .893
84 UTSA -.19   .05 67 -.40 93   .42 93 1.74 95 4.20 97   6.8 .000 .032 .800
85 Tulane -.19   -.04 76 -.32 83   .64 75 2.39 68 5.06 75   5.9 - .007 .587
86 Miami (OH) -.20   -.23 90 -.20 72   .45 90 1.41 117 3.67 120   7.2 .001 .061 .877
87 Colorado -.21   -.36 102 -.17 67   1.07 43 3.70 30 7.20 8   3.6 - .000 .103
88 East Carolina -.22   .03 70 -.44 96   .67 70 2.38 69 5.23 69   5.5 .000 .005 .502
89 Northwestern -.26   -.45 109 -.08 58   1.65 15 3.98 16 6.93 18   3.7 - - .090
90 Central Michigan -.27   -.37 103 -.23 75   .60 77 1.77 92 3.99 105   6.6 .000 .022 .773
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   PW U 10+ 6+
91 Georgia Tech -.29   -.03 72 -.64 108   1.48 24 3.89 21 6.97 15   3.6 - - .077
92 Colorado State -.30   -.34 99 -.30 80   .80 62 2.55 64 5.29 67   5.0 - .001 .367
93 Georgia State -.31   -.15 82 -.34 86   .32 108 1.64 102 4.60 92   5.6 .000 .009 .531
94 Middle Tennessee -.31   -.50 113 -.22 74   .20 125 1.27 126 3.65 121   6.6 .001 .028 .752
95 Eastern Michigan -.32   -.11 80 -.66 113   .28 116 1.28 125 3.48 126   6.7 .000 .027 .779
96 Northern Illinois -.36   -.19 86 -.64 107   .27 118 1.34 121 3.83 111   6.0 .000 .011 .627
97 Hawaii -.37   -.27 94 -.62 106   .52 86 2.17 80 5.06 74   5.7 - .010 .544
98 Arizona -.37   -.21 87 -.49 102   1.01 49 3.47 39 6.75 27   3.2 - - .049
99 Buffalo -.40   -.18 85 -.65 112   .11 129 .95 129 2.95 130   6.8 .001 .037 .797
100 Louisiana Tech -.41   -.37 104 -.29 79   .41 97 1.43 112 3.58 123   6.3 - .011 .694
101 North Texas -.41   -.38 105 -.47 99   .11 128 1.31 123 3.70 118   6.0 .000 .010 .610
102 Troy -.41   -.45 110 -.31 81   .54 82 1.87 91 4.61 90   5.2 - .001 .418
103 Rutgers -.41   -.85 124 -.16 66   1.70 11 4.05 13 6.90 22   3.2 - - .032
104 South Florida -.43   -.30 97 -.70 115   .72 63 2.78 60 5.79 58   3.9 - .000 .117
105 Georgia Southern -.44   -.57 114 -.42 94   .40 99 1.72 97 4.60 91   4.8 - .002 .331
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   PW U 10+ 6+
106 Ball State -.45   -.42 108 -.53 104   .23 123 1.20 127 3.60 122   5.7 - .007 .550
107 Ohio -.46   -.07 78 -.85 122   .56 80 1.73 96 3.95 107   5.5 - .002 .487
108 James Madison -.50   -.50 111 -.50 103   .22 124 1.30 124 3.72 117   4.7 .000 .000 .282
109 Vanderbilt -.52   -.29 96 -.65 110   1.87 3 4.29 5 7.21 6   2.6 - - .011
110 San Jose State -.53   -.81 122 -.24 76   .41 96 2.05 84 4.71 86   4.3 - .000 .193
111 Duke -.53   -.68 117 -.47 100   .44 91 2.22 77 5.07 73   4.0 - - .153
112 South Alabama -.55   -.67 116 -.43 95   .28 117 .95 128 3.36 128   5.5 - .006 .505
113 Arkansas State -.55   -.36 101 -.86 123   .65 72 1.42 115 3.56 124   5.7 - .005 .549
114 UNLV -.57   -.40 107 -.71 117   .61 76 2.37 70 5.12 70   3.8 - .000 .119
115 Old Dominion -.59   -.93 125 -.45 97   .24 122 1.75 94 4.85 81   3.6 - .000 .103
116 UL Monroe -.60   -.34 100 -.79 121   .92 57 2.21 78 4.75 83   4.2 - .000 .172
117 Kent State -.63   -.03 73 -1.13 126   1.01 48 2.28 76 4.53 94   4.4 - - .211
118 Southern Mississippi -.65   -1.07 128 -.12 62   .27 119 1.35 120 3.92 109   4.4 - .001 .221
119 Kansas -.68   -.28 95 -1.07 124   1.50 23 4.05 12 7.17 10   1.9 - - .000
120 UTEP -.73   -.69 118 -.65 111   .54 81 1.63 103 3.83 112   4.3 - .000 .194
 
Rk Team FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk   PW U 10+ 6+
121 Texas State -.77   -.83 123 -.74 119   .48 87 1.43 113 3.92 110   3.9 - - .133
122 Temple -.78   -.73 120 -.64 109   .47 89 1.97 88 4.53 93   3.3 - - .051
123 Charlotte -.78   -.18 84 -1.21 129   .11 131 1.32 122 3.67 119   4.0 - .000 .144
124 New Mexico -.81   -1.09 130 -.59 105   .64 73 2.32 72 5.05 76   3.0 - - .020
125 Rice -.81   -.77 121 -.79 120   .26 121 1.72 98 4.35 95   3.2 - - .051
126 Bowling Green -.91   -1.11 131 -.71 118   .34 107 1.64 100 4.17 98   3.0 - - .030
127 Florida International -.92   -.66 115 -1.12 125   .11 130 .86 130 2.75 131   4.1 - .000 .172
128 New Mexico State -.93   -.70 119 -1.14 127   .53 84 1.77 93 3.94 108   3.5 - - .077
129 Connecticut -1.07   -1.03 126 -1.22 130   .71 64 2.41 66 5.01 77   2.1 - - .001
130 Akron -1.10   -1.09 129 -1.20 128   .36 101 1.53 108 4.05 101   2.2 - - .006
131 Massachusetts -1.14   -1.03 127 -1.33 131   .40 98 1.55 107 3.77 115   2.4 - - .007