Scheduling FCS Opponents

In 1997, there were 112 Division 1-A (now called FBS) college football teams. 36 of those teams played at least one game against a lower-division opponent. 77 percent of D 1-A teams played only games against other D 1-A opponents.

In 2013, there will be 125 FBS college teams. Only 19 of those teams are scheduled to play only games against other FBS opponents: Central Florida, Florida Atlantic, Hawaii, Miami (OH), Michigan, New Mexico, North Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Penn State, Rice, Southern Mississippi, Stanford, Texas, Tulsa, UCLA, USC, UTEP, and UT-San Antonio.

In 2006, the NCAA expanded the rules for bowl eligibility to allow FBS teams to qualify for bowl games with a non-losing (.500) record. This rule change coincides with a significant increase in the percentage of teams scheduling at least one FCS opponent.

Championship Matchup

FEI ratings are based on possession efficiency, and each drive and possession change event has a measurable impact on the final score. As might be expected, the average value of starting field position is the same as the average value of a given first down series from the same field position. First downs are statistically similar to the start of unique possessions.

So while I'll be paying close attention to overall drive efficiency throughout the title game, efficiency per first down series will reveal an even more refined view of the championship battle between Alabama and Notre Dame. The charts above represent the first down series success to date for both teams.

Bowl Projections

 

Projections for all 35 bowl games are posted on this site according to the FEI ratings and methodology I have been using and tracking all season long. For the bowl season, I will also be posting projections using a new methodology I have recently developed. A version of this methodology was first posted in an FEI column at Football Outsiders last month, and projections for the four non-championship BCS bowls are featured in the current issue of ESPN the Magazine.

For this new projection methodology, I identified 25 separate metrics that comprise a team's overall efficiency profile. These factors include the overal FEI, OFEI, DFEI, STE, and FPA ratings, plus offensive, defensive, and special teams statistics published weekly at Football Outsiders. Using the 25 metrics, I then compared each bowl game matchup to every other game matchup played in the last five years, 7152 in all. The projection was then based on the 100 most similar games, producing a projected scoring distribution, a mean score projection, and a win likelihood for each game.

New method projections are posted here, along with a chart of the scoring margins of the 100 most similar games.  The success of this methodology against the current method is visualized in the chart above.

Field Position Following a Kickoff

The frequency of touchbacks has nearly doubled from 2011 to 2012. The distribution of starting field position is a bit more narrow this year as well. The spikes at the 40-yard line in the 2011 data and the 35-yard line in the 2012 data are due to where the ball has been placed following a kickoff out of bounds in each season. Touchdown returns have been consistent from 2011 to 2012, occurring on 0.8 percent of kickoffs in each season.

Game Splits

The game splits published on this site represent the offensive, defensive, special teams, field position and turnover values generated by each team in every FBS vs. FBS game played this season. The charts above illustrate what that data looks like over the course of each game, possession by possession.