EWC Data
2019 Projects
2019 Weekly Ratings
SFP Ratings
Possession Success Rate

2019 Game Projection Results (through Week 2)

 

Average projection error (APE) is the average delta between projected margin and actual margin for all game projections, and median projection error (MPE) is the median delta. The percentage of games won by projected winners (SU) is also provided, along with the percentage of games won by projected winners within a given expected win likelihood range. (50-55 indicates games in which the projected win likelihood was between 50 and 55 percent, 95+ indicates games in which the projected win likelihood was greater than 95 percent, etc). The percentage of games won against the spread (ATS) is also provided, along with ATS success rates according to the delta between FEI projections and betting lines. (3- indicates games in which the FEI projection and betting line differed by fewer than three points, 10+ indicates games in which the FEI projection and betting line differed by more than ten points, etc).

 

APE MPE   SU 50-55 55-65 65-75 75-85 85-95 95+   ATS 3- 3+ 7- 7+ 10- 10+
12.3 9.2   .813 .600 .640 .933 .895 .933 1.000   .483 .467 .475 .478 .458 .438 .727

 

Game Projections identify each team's per possession scoring advantage (TA), per possession offensive advantage (OA), and per possession defensive advantage (DA) in the game, calculated from current FEI ratings. The projected win likelihood (PWL) and projected margin of victory (PM) are also provided. Remaining columns detail the results of the projections including the actual final score of the game (Final), the final scoring margin (FM), the projection error represented as the absolute value of the delta between projected margin and actual margin (PE), as well as whether the projection correctly identified the game winner (SU) and winner against the betting line (ATS).

 

Week 3 Game Projections

 

Projected Winner
Projected Loser TA OA DA   PWL PM   Final FM PE   SU ATS
Alabama South Carolina 1.26 1.61 .95   .952 30.2
Arizona Texas Tech .01 .77 -.86   .562 3.0
Arkansas Colorado State .40 .76 -.17   .735 12.7
Army UTSA 1.10 1.05 1.16   .909 25.9
Auburn Kent State 1.15 .90 1.52   .989 34.8
Boston College Kansas .61 .26 .93   .835 19.6
Buffalo Liberty .22 .65 .05   .583 4.1
California North Texas .26 .16 .39   .700 10.6
Central Florida Stanford .21 .60 -.23   .668 8.7
Central Michigan Akron .04 -.80 .83   .586 4.3
Charlotte Massachusetts .33 .50 -.17   .691 10.1
Cincinnati Miami (OH) .44 .38 .41   .763 14.5
Clemson Syracuse 1.12 .92 1.35   .916 26.5
Colorado Air Force -.01 .42 -.39   .573 3.6
Florida Kentucky .37 .01 .56   .603 5.2
Florida Atlantic Ball State .22 .56 -.01   .564 3.1
Georgia Arkansas State .94 1.03 .72   .928 27.7
Illinois Eastern Michigan .11 -.02 -.09   .584 4.2
Iowa Iowa State .40 .14 .60   .632 6.7
Louisiana Tech Bowling Green .66 .91 .29   .744 13.3
Memphis South Alabama 1.08 1.39 .52   .883 23.5
Michigan State Arizona State .19 -.15 .50   .661 8.3
Middle Tennessee Duke -.13 -.06 -.13   .511 .5
Minnesota Georgia Southern .17 .14 .17   .652 7.8
Mississippi State Kansas State .44 .53 .48   .786 16.1
Navy East Carolina .07 .69 -.44   .621 6.1
Nebraska Northern Illinois .11 .01 .25   .632 6.7
Northwestern UNLV .66 .52 .76   .849 20.7
Notre Dame New Mexico 1.22 1.30 .96   .988 34.7
Ohio Marshall .22 .39 .12   .559 2.9
Ohio State Indiana .60 1.16 .22   .749 13.6
Oklahoma UCLA .75 2.09 -.48   .801 17.1
Oklahoma State Tulsa .44 1.17 -.23   .666 8.6
Penn State Pittsburgh .40 .35 .51   .762 14.5
San Diego State New Mexico State .87 .59 1.01   .823 18.7
SMU Texas State .26 .13 .36   .694 10.2
TCU Purdue .18 .03 .33   .528 1.3
Temple Maryland .10 -.04 .21   .617 5.9
Texas Rice .85 1.11 .79   .887 23.9
Troy Southern Mississippi -.02 -.40 .50   .581 4.0
USC BYU .15 .20 .17   .519 .9
Virginia Florida State -.11 -.44 .37   .533 1.6
Wake Forest North Carolina .05 .31 -.16   .604 5.2
Washington Hawaii .78 1.09 .75   .912 26.2
Washington State Houston .34 1.26 -.54   .615 5.8
West Virginia North Carolina State .04 .41 -.42   .581 4.0
Western Kentucky Louisville .23 .48 -.02   .622 6.2
Western Michigan Georgia State .57 1.30 -.29   .811 17.8

 

 

Week 2 Game Projections

 

Projected Winner
Projected Loser TA OA DA   PWL PM   Final FM PE   SU ATS
Alabama New Mexico State 2.11 2.38 1.76   .990 59.2   W 62-10 52 7.2   Win Loss
Appalachian State Charlotte 1.00 .69 1.37   .954 30.5   W 56-41 15 15.5   Win Loss
Arkansas State UNLV .37 .71 .09   .632 6.7   W 43-17 26 19.3   Win Win
Auburn Tulane .84 .53 1.06   .902 25.2   W 24-6 18 7.2   Win Win
Baylor UTSA .91 .98 .73   .921 27.0   W 63-14 49 22.0   Win Win
Boise State Marshall .56 .45 .63   .815 18.1   W 14-7 7 11.1   Win Loss
Central Florida Florida Atlantic .57 .94 .15   .711 11.3   W 48-14 34 22.7   Win Loss
Clemson Texas A&M .79 .83 .69   .890 24.1   W 24-10 14 10.1   Win Loss
Colorado Nebraska -.05 .11 -.21   .545 2.2   W 34-31 3 .8   Win Win
Florida International Western Kentucky .02 .42 -.50   .567 3.3   L 14-20 -6 9.3   Loss Win
Florida State Louisiana Monroe .66 .69 .47   .839 19.9   W 45-44 1 18.9   Win Win
Fresno State Minnesota -.22 -.42 .35   .503 .1   L 35-38 -3 3.1   Loss Push
Georgia Tech South Florida .08 .62 -.34   .628 6.5   W 14-10 4 2.5   Win Loss
Hawaii Oregon State .23 1.21 -.84   .674 9.1   W 31-28 3 6.1   Win Loss
Illinois Connecticut .71 1.43 -.14   .763 14.5   W 31-23 8 6.5   Win Win
Iowa Rutgers .96 .44 1.41   .937 28.6   W 30-0 30 1.4   Win Win
Kansas Coastal Carolina -.06 .43 -.34   .568 3.3   L 7-12 -5 8.3   Loss Win
Kansas State Bowling Green .74 1.07 .23   .865 22.0   W 52-0 52 30.0   Win Loss
Kentucky Eastern Michigan .47 .15 .68   .773 15.2   W 38-17 21 5.8   Win Loss
Louisiana Lafayette Liberty .15 .72 -.43   .644 7.4   W 35-14 21 13.6   Win Loss
LSU Texas .63 .36 .66   .717 11.6   W 45-38 7 4.6   Win Win
Miami North Carolina .35 .12 .67   .625 6.3   L 25-28 -3 9.3   Loss Loss
Michigan Army .29 .41 .11   .704 10.8   W 24-21 3 7.8   Win Win
Michigan State Western Michigan .21 .10 .45   .689 9.9   W 51-17 34 24.1   Win Loss
Mississippi Arkansas .18 .63 -.15   .676 9.2   W 31-17 14 4.8   Win Win
Mississippi State Southern Mississippi .55 .20 1.19   .841 20.1   W 38-15 23 2.9   Win Win
Missouri West Virginia .10 .38 -.19   .621 6.1   W 38-7 31 24.9   Win Loss
Ohio State Cincinnati .51 .81 .26   .805 17.4   W 42-0 42 24.6   Win Win
Oregon Nevada .39 .49 .31   .755 14.0   W 77-6 71 57.0   Win Loss
Penn State Buffalo .65 .71 .43   .838 19.8   W 45-13 32 12.2   Win Loss
Pittsburgh Ohio -.06 .44 -.68   .525 1.2   W 20-10 10 8.8   Win Loss
Purdue Vanderbilt -.02 .22 -.30   .557 2.8   W 42-24 18 15.2   Win Loss
SMU North Texas -.02 .09 -.19   .552 2.5   W 49-27 22 19.5   Win Loss
Stanford USC .12 .26 .07   .505 .3   L 20-45 -25 25.3   Loss Loss
Syracuse Maryland .16 .04 .22   .507 .3   L 20-63 -43 43.3   Loss Loss
Tennessee BYU .14 .03 .10   .623 6.2   L 26-29 -3 9.2   Loss Loss
Texas Tech UTEP .89 1.14 .37   .904 25.4   W 38-3 35 9.6   Win Loss
Tulsa San Jose State .41 .38 .45   .646 7.5   W 34-16 18 10.5   Win Win
UAB Akron .35 .01 .92   .645 7.4   W 31-20 11 3.6   Win Loss
UCLA San Diego State .02 -.17 .19   .580 4.0   L 14-23 -9 13.0   Loss Win
Utah Northern Illinois .46 -.25 1.04   .768 14.9   W 35-17 18 3.1   Win Win
Virginia Tech Old Dominion .70 .95 .19   .846 20.5   W 31-17 14 6.5   Win Win
Wake Forest Rice .61 .72 .60   .745 13.4   W 41-21 20 6.6   Win Push
Washington California .49 .12 1.03   .810 17.7   L 19-20 -1 18.7   Loss Loss
Wisconsin Central Michigan 1.02 .44 1.53   .952 30.2   W 61-0 61 30.8   Win Loss
Wyoming Texas State .14 -.29 .73   .527 1.3   W 23-14 9 7.7   Win Loss

 

 

Week 1 Game Projections

 

Projected Winner
Projected Loser TA OA DA   PWL PM   Final FM PE   SU ATS
Alabama Duke 1.37 1.50 1.15   .990 35.8   W 42-3 39 3.2   Win Win
Arizona State Kent State .68 .88 .63   .872 22.6   W 30-7 23 .4   Win Win
Arkansas State SMU .21 .29 .28   .692 10.1   L 30-37 -7 17.1   Loss Loss
Army Rice .96 1.42 .69   .953 30.3   W 14-7 7 23.3   Win Loss
Auburn Oregon .30 .48 .16   .660 8.3   W 27-21 6 2.3   Win Win
Boise State Florida State .16 .23 .37   .621 6.1   W 36-31 5 1.1   Win Win
Boston College Virginia Tech -.17 -.31 .24   .517 .8   W 35-28 7 6.2   Win Win
Cincinnati UCLA .19 .33 .10   .670 8.9   W 24-14 10 1.1   Win Win
Clemson Georgia Tech 1.11 1.42 .66   .968 32.1   W 52-14 38 5.9   Win Loss
Colorado Colorado State .46 .67 .08   .708 11.1   W 52-31 21 9.9   Win Loss
Eastern Michigan Coastal Carolina .10 .51 -.07   .515 .7   W 30-23 7 6.3   Win Loss
Florida International Tulane .29 .29 .00   .545 2.2   L 14-42 -28 30.2   Loss Loss
Georgia Vanderbilt 1.00 1.23 .68   .872 22.5   W 30-6 24 1.5   Win Win
Illinois Akron .18 -.15 .30   .635 6.9   W 42-3 39 32.1   Win Loss
Indiana Ball State .61 .88 .34   .788 16.2   W 34-24 10 6.2   Win Win
Iowa Miami (OH) .59 .28 .85   .825 18.9   W 38-14 24 5.1   Win Win
Kentucky Toledo .13 .46 -.21   .635 6.9   W 38-24 14 7.1   Win Loss
LSU Georgia Southern .60 .61 .60   .834 19.6   W 55-3 52 32.4   Win Loss
Memphis Mississippi .20 .86 -.71   .641 7.2   W 15-10 5 2.2   Win Win
Michigan Middle Tennessee .74 .57 .77   .868 22.3   W 40-21 19 3.3   Win Win
Michigan State Tulsa .54 .12 .95   .811 17.8   W 28-7 21 3.2   Win Win
Mississippi State Louisiana Lafayette .92 1.34 .59   .900 25.0   W 38-28 10 15.0   Win Loss
Missouri Wyoming .73 .43 .96   .776 15.4   L 31-37 -6 21.4   Loss Loss
Nebraska South Alabama .83 1.12 .38   .894 24.5   W 35-21 14 10.5   Win Win
Nevada Purdue -.02 .00 -.16   .546 2.2   W 34-31 3 .8   Win Win
North Carolina State East Carolina .62 .98 .31   .845 20.4   W 34-6 28 7.6   Win Win
Notre Dame Louisville .79 1.16 .53   .817 18.2   W 35-17 18 .2   Win Win
Ohio State Florida Atlantic .99 1.46 .46   .945 29.4   W 45-21 24 5.4   Win Loss
Oklahoma Houston .72 2.09 -.68   .871 22.5   W 49-31 18 4.5   Win Loss
Oklahoma State Oregon State .76 1.93 -.29   .806 17.5   W 52-36 16 1.5   Win Win
Pittsburgh Virginia .00 -.11 .05   .563 3.1   L 14-30 -16 19.1   Loss Loss
Rutgers Massachusetts .30 .23 .15   .690 10.0   W 48-21 27 17.0   Win Loss
South Carolina North Carolina .25 .64 -.07   .640 7.2   L 20-24 -4 11.2   Loss Win
Stanford Northwestern .05 -.18 .39   .611 5.6   W 17-7 10 4.4   Win Loss
Syracuse Liberty .53 .46 .60   .700 10.6   W 24-0 24 13.4   Win Loss
Tennessee Georgia State .78 1.07 .35   .881 23.3   L 30-38 -8 31.3   Loss Win
Texas Louisiana Tech .11 .12 .33   .655 8.0   W 45-14 31 23.0   Win Loss
Texas A&M Texas State .79 .80 .85   .900 25.0   W 41-7 34 9.0   Win Loss
USC Fresno State .15 -.11 .15   .614 5.7   W 31-23 8 2.3   Win Win
Utah BYU .36 -.01 .57   .602 5.1   W 30-12 18 12.9   Win Win
Utah State Wake Forest .37 .42 .48   .646 7.5   L 35-38 -3 10.5   Loss Win
Washington State New Mexico State 1.08 1.63 .52   .968 32.1   W 58-7 51 18.9   Win Loss
Wisconsin South Florida .60 .47 .70   .728 12.3   W 49-0 49 36.7   Win Win

 

 

Week 0 Game Projections

 

Projected Winner
Projected Loser TA OA DA   PWL PM   Final FM PE   SU ATS
Arizona Hawaii .35 .54 -.12   .675 10.2   L 38-45 -7 17.2   Loss Win
Florida Miami .24 -.23 .41   .623 5.6   W 24-20 4 1.6   Win Win