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2022 Win Projections

 

Win Projections are calculated from current FEI ratings. Projected win distributions represent the percent likelihood each team will finish the regular season with the given win total (including games against FCS opponents), based on individual game win likelihoods and results to date. Win likelihoods are rounded to the nearest percent, so win distributions may not add up to 100 percent. See also: Game Projections

 

FEI Ratings (through Week 11)

  

Regular Season Projected Win Distribution
Rk Team Rec FBS FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0   PW
1 Georgia 10-0 9-0 1.51   1.59 5 1.59 1   98 2 - - - - - - - - - - -   12.0
2 Ohio State 10-0 10-0 1.43   1.98 1 1.15 5   61 38 1 - - - - - - - - - -   11.6
3 Michigan 10-0 10-0 1.23   1.35 8 1.02 7   33 61 6 - - - - - - - - - -   11.3
4 Tennessee 9-1 8-1 1.21   1.87 2 .45 30   - 96 4 - - - - - - - - - -   11.0
5 Alabama 8-2 8-2 1.15   1.06 15 1.16 4   - - 94 6 - - - - - - - - -   9.9
6 Texas 6-4 6-4 .91   .99 19 .74 13   - - - - 66 31 3 - - - - - -   7.6
7 Penn State 8-2 8-2 .90   .80 23 1.11 6   - - 87 13 - - - - - - - - -   9.9
8 Kansas State 7-3 6-3 .85   1.06 16 .88 9   - - - 73 25 2 - - - - - - -   8.7
9 Utah 8-2 7-2 .82   1.15 11 .45 31   - - 59 41 - - - - - - - - -   9.6
10 TCU 10-0 9-0 .80   1.08 14 .69 15   54 38 7 - - - - - - - - - -   11.5
11 LSU 8-2 7-2 .79   1.04 17 .86 10   - - 76 23 2 - - - - - - - -   9.7
12 Florida State 7-3 6-3 .74   1.11 13 .38 36   - - - 60 38 3 - - - - - - -   8.6
13 USC 9-1 9-1 .74   1.82 3 -.43 94   - 48 43 10 - - - - - - - - -   10.4
14 Oregon 8-2 7-2 .68   1.78 4 -.15 74   - - 28 53 20 - - - - - - - -   9.1
15 Minnesota 7-3 6-3 .61   .53 36 .78 11   - - - 34 49 17 - - - - - - -   8.2
 
Rk Team Rec FBS FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0   PW
16 Ole Miss 8-2 7-2 .60   1.38 7 -.04 65   - - 31 51 18 - - - - - - - -   9.1
17 Mississippi State 6-4 6-4 .60   .65 29 .54 24   - - - - 49 50 1 - - - - - -   7.5
18 UCF 8-2 7-2 .56   .99 20 .07 52   - - 83 17 - - - - - - - - -   9.8
19 Clemson 9-1 8-1 .54   .41 42 .69 17   - 69 29 3 - - - - - - - - -   10.7
20 Florida 6-4 5-4 .53   .95 21 .04 56   - - - - 31 61 8 - - - - - -   7.2
21 Iowa 6-4 5-4 .53   -.45 96 1.42 2   - - - - 38 55 7 - - - - - -   7.3
22 Louisville 6-4 6-4 .47   .08 62 .77 12   - - - - 40 47 13 - - - - - -   7.3
23 Notre Dame 7-3 7-3 .47   .25 47 .50 26   - - - 30 63 7 - - - - - - -   8.2
24 Iowa State 4-6 3-6 .44   -.26 80 1.23 3   - - - - - - 16 53 31 - - - -   4.8
25 Illinois 7-3 6-3 .44   -.07 65 .96 8   - - - 9 77 14 - - - - - - -   7.9
26 Washington State 6-4 5-4 .43   .13 59 .49 27   - - - - 42 48 9 - - - - - -   7.3
27 Wisconsin 5-5 4-5 .42   .22 48 .73 14   - - - - - 31 59 10 - - - - -   6.2
28 Oregon State 7-3 6-3 .41   .30 45 .55 23   - - - 28 62 10 - - - - - - -   8.2
29 UCLA 8-2 7-2 .40   1.46 6 -.21 78   - - 24 62 14 - - - - - - - -   9.1
30 Arkansas 5-5 4-5 .39   .79 24 -.03 64   - - - - - 24 53 23 - - - - -   6.0
 
Rk Team Rec FBS FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0   PW
31 Oklahoma 5-5 5-5 .38   .77 25 .09 51   - - - - - 26 51 23 - - - - -   6.0
32 Washington 8-2 7-2 .38   1.23 10 -.28 82   - - 45 54 1 - - - - - - - -   9.4
33 Oklahoma State 7-3 6-3 .37   .40 43 .28 40   - - - 36 51 14 - - - - - - -   8.2
34 Baylor 6-4 5-4 .37   .65 28 .23 42   - - - - 5 34 61 - - - - - -   6.4
35 Wake Forest 6-4 5-4 .36   .88 22 .07 53   - - - - 36 48 16 - - - - - -   7.2
36 Texas Tech 5-5 4-5 .34   .19 50 .61 18   - - - - - 20 50 30 - - - - -   5.9
37 Maryland 6-4 6-4 .34   .40 44 .28 39   - - - - 3 80 17 - - - - - -   6.9
38 Tulane 8-2 7-2 .33   .45 40 .47 29   - - 29 49 21 - - - - - - - -   9.1
39 Kansas 6-4 5-4 .32   1.15 12 -.49 99   - - - - 3 30 67 - - - - - -   6.4
40 Purdue 6-4 5-4 .28   .58 33 .04 58   - - - - 56 38 7 - - - - - -   7.5
41 SMU 6-4 5-4 .27   1.03 18 -.43 95   - - - - 28 51 22 - - - - - -   7.1
42 NC State 7-3 6-3 .26   -.26 81 .56 22   - - - 19 51 30 - - - - - - -   7.9
43 Cincinnati 8-2 7-2 .25   -.17 72 .40 34   - - 41 54 5 - - - - - - - -   9.4
44 Kentucky 6-4 5-4 .25   -.03 64 .53 25   - - - - - 36 63 - - - - - -   6.4
45 East Carolina 6-4 5-4 .25   .63 31 .07 54   - - - - 57 39 4 - - - - - -   7.5
 
Rk Team Rec FBS FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0   PW
46 Syracuse 6-4 5-4 .24   .12 60 .26 41   - - - - 34 56 10 - - - - - -   7.2
47 North Carolina 9-1 8-1 .22   1.28 9 -.88 118   - 39 52 9 - - - - - - - - -   10.3
48 Auburn 4-6 3-6 .21   -.18 73 .61 19   - - - - - - 3 52 45 - - - -   4.6
49 Pittsburgh 6-4 5-4 .20   -.08 66 .56 21   - - - - 40 48 12 - - - - - -   7.3
50 Texas A&M 3-7 2-7 .20   -.26 79 .41 33   - - - - - - - 17 82 1 - - -   4.2
51 Air Force 7-3 6-3 .19   .17 54 .22 44   - - - 74 25 1 - - - - - - -   8.7
52 Missouri 4-6 3-6 .19   -.32 84 .59 20   - - - - - - 36 63 1 - - - -   5.4
53 Duke 7-3 6-3 .18   .51 37 -.21 77   - - - 19 49 32 - - - - - - -   7.9
54 Boise State 7-3 6-3 .17   .18 52 .30 38   - - - 73 24 2 - - - - - - -   8.7
55 Western Kentucky 7-4 6-4 .17   .21 49 .21 45   - - - 34 51 15 - - - - - - -   8.2
56 Michigan State 5-5 5-5 .13   .29 46 -.10 71   - - - - - 7 60 32 - - - - -   5.8
57 Memphis 5-5 5-5 .13   .12 61 .18 46   - - - - - 39 59 2 - - - - -   6.4
58 UTSA 8-2 7-2 .12   .72 26 -.32 86   - - 86 14 - - - - - - - - -   9.9
59 South Alabama 8-2 7-2 .09   -.20 75 .44 32   - - 63 32 4 - - - - - - - -   9.6
60 South Carolina 6-4 5-4 .08   -.23 76 -.06 67   - - - - 1 26 74 - - - - - -   6.3
 
Rk Team Rec FBS FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0   PW
61 Houston 6-4 6-4 .05   .64 30 -.57 107   - - - - 27 56 17 - - - - - -   7.1
62 James Madison 6-3 5-3 .03   -.37 89 .39 35   - - - - 38 48 14 - - - - - -   7.2
63 BYU 5-5 5-5 .02   .71 27 -.55 106   - - - - - 65 33 2 - - - - -   6.6
64 Troy 8-2 7-2 .01   -.37 90 .33 37   - - 70 27 3 - - - - - - - -   9.7
65 Liberty 8-2 7-2 .00   -.23 77 .49 28   - - 72 27 1 - - - - - - - -   9.7
66 West Virginia 4-6 3-6 .00   .53 35 -.64 112   - - - - - - 2 31 67 - - - -   4.4
67 Fresno State 6-4 5-4 -.02   .15 57 -.29 84   - - - - 66 32 3 - - - - - -   7.6
68 Coastal Carolina 9-1 8-1 -.03   .57 34 -.28 83   - 31 51 18 - - - - - - - - -   10.1
69 Appalachian State 5-5 3-5 -.03   .49 38 -.40 90   - - - - - 49 42 8 - - - - -   6.4
70 UAB 5-5 4-5 -.04   .08 63 .01 60   - - - - - 8 82 10 - - - - -   6.0
71 Toledo 7-3 6-3 -.06   .16 55 -.12 72   - - - 72 26 2 - - - - - - -   8.7
72 Marshall 6-4 4-4 -.06   -.82 117 .69 16   - - - - 42 45 13 - - - - - -   7.3
73 Navy 3-7 3-6 -.07   -.10 68 -.05 66   - - - - - - - 10 60 30 - - -   3.8
74 Indiana 3-7 2-7 -.08   -.36 88 .12 49   - - - - - - - 10 44 45 - - -   3.6
75 Arizona 4-6 3-6 -.09   .61 32 -.89 119   - - - - - - 12 55 33 - - - -   4.8
 
Rk Team Rec FBS FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0   PW
76 San Jose State 6-3 5-3 -.11   .14 58 -.18 75   - - - 68 30 2 - - - - - - -   8.7
77 California 3-7 2-7 -.14   -.27 83 -.01 61   - - - - - - - 11 55 34 - - -   3.8
78 Louisiana 5-5 4-5 -.16   -.50 99 -.02 62   - - - - - 5 73 22 - - - - -   5.8
79 Ohio 7-3 6-3 -.17   .43 41 -.75 116   - - - 55 38 6 - - - - - - -   8.5
80 Northwestern 1-9 1-8 -.18   -.38 91 .04 57   - - - - - - - - - 3 32 65 -   1.4
81 North Texas 6-5 5-5 -.20   .15 56 -.59 108   - - - - - 81 19 - - - - - -   6.8
82 Nebraska 3-7 2-7 -.20   -.15 70 -.36 89   - - - - - - - 2 24 74 - - -   3.3
83 Florida Atlantic 5-5 4-5 -.20   -.24 78 -.10 70   - - - - - 21 61 18 - - - - -   6.0
84 Vanderbilt 4-6 3-6 -.21   -.13 69 -.52 102   - - - - - - - 13 87 - - - -   4.1
85 Arizona State 3-7 2-7 -.21   .17 53 -.55 104   - - - - - - - 7 44 50 - - -   3.6
86 Buffalo 5-5 5-4 -.22   -.42 94 -.07 68   - - - - - 54 41 5 - - - - -   6.5
87 Miami 5-5 4-5 -.24   -.41 93 .03 59   - - - - - 3 30 67 - - - - -   5.4
88 Rutgers 4-6 3-6 -.25   -.72 108 .15 48   - - - - - - - 19 81 - - - -   4.2
89 Army 3-6 1-6 -.26   .18 51 -.62 111   - - - - - - 25 53 21 1 - - -   5.0
90 Stanford 3-7 2-7 -.27   -.50 98 -.31 85   - - - - - - - 13 47 40 - - -   3.7
 
Rk Team Rec FBS FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0   PW
91 Georgia Southern 5-5 4-5 -.28   .47 39 -1.18 128   - - - - - 12 46 41 - - - - -   5.7
92 Georgia State 4-6 4-6 -.29   -.46 97 .06 55   - - - - - - 10 45 45 - - - -   4.7
93 San Diego State 6-4 5-4 -.29   -1.06 124 .17 47   - - - - 19 70 11 - - - - - -   7.1
94 Virginia 3-7 2-7 -.30   -.64 104 .23 43   - - - - - - - 19 53 28 - - -   3.9
95 Boston College 3-7 2-7 -.34   -.67 105 -.02 63   - - - - - - - 2 24 75 - - -   3.3
96 Tulsa 3-7 2-7 -.35   -.26 82 -.20 76   - - - - - - - 19 60 20 - - -   4.0
97 Southern Mississippi 5-5 4-5 -.38   -.80 115 -.09 69   - - - - - 15 58 27 - - - - -   5.9
98 Georgia Tech 4-6 3-6 -.40   -.76 111 .11 50   - - - - - - - 17 83 - - - -   4.2
99 Kent State 4-6 3-6 -.40   -.10 67 -.67 113   - - - - - - 25 53 22 - - - -   5.0
100 Virginia Tech 2-8 1-8 -.41   -.76 110 -.14 73   - - - - - - - - 11 47 43 - -   2.7
101 Wyoming 7-3 6-3 -.44   -.59 101 -.48 98   - - - 4 34 62 - - - - - - -   7.4
102 UNLV 4-6 3-6 -.45   -.35 87 -.55 105   - - - - - - 60 35 5 - - - -   5.6
103 Central Michigan 4-6 3-6 -.45   -.61 103 -.33 87   - - - - - - 43 46 11 - - - -   5.3
104 Old Dominion 3-7 3-7 -.45   -.71 107 -.21 79   - - - - - - - 5 34 61 - - -   3.4
105 Ball State 5-5 4-5 -.52   -.82 118 -.40 91   - - - - - 14 50 36 - - - - -   5.8
 
Rk Team Rec FBS FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0   PW
106 Miami (OH) 4-6 3-6 -.53   -.84 119 -.33 88   - - - - - - 25 50 25 - - - -   5.0
107 Northern Illinois 3-7 2-7 -.53   -.44 95 -1.00 120   - - - - - - - 38 49 13 - - -   4.2
108 Connecticut 6-5 5-5 -.55   -.71 106 -.46 97   - - - - - 32 68 - - - - - -   6.3
109 Temple 3-7 2-7 -.55   -.81 116 -.22 81   - - - - - - - 1 17 82 - - -   3.2
110 Utah State 5-5 5-4 -.55   -.77 112 -.61 109   - - - - - 3 30 66 - - - - -   5.4
111 Arkansas State 3-7 2-7 -.60   -.39 92 -1.17 127   - - - - - - - 9 52 40 - - -   3.7
112 UL Monroe 4-6 3-6 -.60   -.17 71 -.73 115   - - - - - - 6 40 54 - - - -   4.5
113 Eastern Michigan 6-4 5-4 -.62   -.35 86 -1.07 122   - - - - 13 47 39 - - - - - -   6.7
114 Middle Tennessee 5-5 4-5 -.62   -.95 122 -.52 103   - - - - - 21 65 14 - - - - -   6.1
115 Texas State 3-7 2-7 -.63   -.92 120 -.22 80   - - - - - - - 11 49 40 - - -   3.7
116 Bowling Green 5-5 5-4 -.66   -.76 109 -.45 96   - - - - - 4 32 65 - - - - -   5.4
117 South Florida 1-9 0-9 -.72   -.18 74 -1.55 129   - - - - - - - - - - 28 71 -   1.3
118 Rice 5-5 4-5 -.72   -.52 100 -.68 114   - - - - - 2 24 74 - - - - -   5.3
119 Western Michigan 3-7 2-7 -.77   -1.08 126 -.52 101   - - - - - - - 4 35 61 - - -   3.4
120 Nevada 2-8 2-7 -.78   -.93 121 -.51 100   - - - - - - - - 3 35 62 - -   2.4
 
Rk Team Rec FBS FEI   OFEI Rk DFEI Rk   12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0   PW
121 Louisiana Tech 3-7 2-7 -.78   -.60 102 -1.09 123   - - - - - - - 8 65 27 - - -   3.8
122 Colorado State 2-8 2-7 -.81   -1.38 129 -.43 93   - - - - - - - - 3 59 38 - -   2.7
123 Colorado 1-9 1-9 -.83   -1.08 127 -.62 110   - - - - - - - - - - 2 97 -   1.0
124 UTEP 4-6 4-6 -.84   -1.02 123 -.88 117   - - - - - - 4 69 27 - - - -   4.8
125 Akron 1-9 0-9 -.96   -.78 113 -1.03 121   - - - - - - - - - 3 32 65 -   1.4
126 New Mexico 2-8 1-8 -.96   -1.46 130 -.43 92   - - - - - - - - 6 43 51 - -   2.5
127 New Mexico State 4-5 3-5 -1.10   -1.06 125 -1.13 126   - - - - - - - 9 91 - - - -   4.1
128 Charlotte 2-9 2-8 -1.10   -.33 85 -1.96 131   - - - - - - - - - 30 70 - -   2.3
129 Hawaii 2-9 1-9 -1.10   -.80 114 -1.55 130   - - - - - - - - 1 18 81 - -   2.2
130 Florida International 3-6 3-6 -1.18   -1.28 128 -1.10 124   - - - - - - - 5 38 57 - - -   3.5
131 Massachusetts 1-9 0-9 -1.25   -1.50 131 -1.12 125   - - - - - - - - - - 6 94 -   1.1